Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

Hope someone got on. They've just gone 5/2. Unbelievable scenes if they took the price down purely off the back of knocking me back on it.

Lol, there I was examining it, & I got run over by the quicker guys.

[TightEnd]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

I need to get my head round that.

On paper, only three results possible? 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, yes? And they go 5/1?

Assuming they are not stupid, that seems totally wrong, unless there any orther factors we should include?

2.5-1.5 3.5-0.5 also both possible.

remember the drawn matches/half points

[edgascoigne]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/day-1-fourballs-correct-score

they are 5/2 are they not?

They are now

Interested to know if they laid a bet or whether it was culled just off me trying to back it. If anyone who got on fancies shooting me a PM I'd be interested to know...

[tikay]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

I need to get my head round that.

On paper, only three results possible? 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, yes? And they go 5/1?

Assuming they are not stupid, that seems totally wrong, unless there any orther factors we should include?

2.5-1.5 3.5-0.5 also both possible.

remember the drawn matches/half points

Ahh yes. So 9 possible outcomes, as the market includes both sides winning scores.

Why is 2-2 a 5/2 shot then?

[redarmi]

I have been backing Europe to win day one this morning @ 15/8 with Corals and VC and think it is worthy of a Fred bet..  The price appears to be based upon the outright markets and strengths of the overall teams but in the fourballs and foursomes of day one the captains don't need to play all of their team and the better European players are much closer in ability than the overall teams because the USA doesn't have players that are so hopelessly out of form as Kaymer for example.  Also day one has traditionally been better for the Europeans I assume they can put together players of the same nationality who are extra motivated to win as a team like Rory and Gmac.  I think 6/4ish is probably about the right price.

[edgascoigne]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

I need to get my head round that.

On paper, only three results possible? 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, yes? And they go 5/1?

Assuming they are not stupid, that seems totally wrong, unless there any orther factors we should include?

2.5-1.5 3.5-0.5 also both possible.

remember the drawn matches/half points

Ahh yes. So 9 possible outcomes, as the market includes both sides winning scores.

Why is 2-2 a 5/2 shot then?

Owing to the number of different ways in which it can occur.

[Karabiner]

In so far as we can guess from both past cups and playing styles, what are possible or probable European pairings please? (eg GiMac and Rory being an obvious one)

Which European players will be fourballs only? (ie not steady enough for foursomes, in theory, but birdie machines for the fourballs)

thank you - developing a piece of research that may or may not come to something

to develop I came up with opening foursomes of


Donald/Rose
Rory/McDowell
Poulter/Westwood
Hanson/Lawrie

Colsaerts and Molinari for fourballs
Kaymer not a lot of form
Garcia for fourballs

along the right lines?

Poulter will play with Rose(nap)

Molinari will play in both sets of foursomes(nb)

[tikay]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

I need to get my head round that.

On paper, only three results possible? 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, yes? And they go 5/1?

Assuming they are not stupid, that seems totally wrong, unless there any orther factors we should include?

2.5-1.5 3.5-0.5 also both possible.

remember the drawn matches/half points

Ahh yes. So 9 possible outcomes, as the market includes both sides winning scores.

Why is 2-2 a 5/2 shot then?

Owing to the number of different ways in which it can occur.

Ahh.....

Bear with me, I'll get there eventually. Maybe.....

[TightEnd]

Advice please

Our old friend Colsaerts is the longest hitter in the field, 317.7 yards off the tee according to the stats

He's a birdie machine

He's a singles matchplay player with pedigree

He's unflappable

He should play both fourballs

He'll play the singles

He might not play either foursomes?

So lets say he plays 3 of the 5 rounds, 4 tops?

How many points do we think he might get?

Win a singles plus a fourball is 2

A win and two halves is 2

Play 4 rounds and he might get 2.5?

Why is 2-3 points 13/8? I think its an odds on shot, whereas the few quoted prices have 0-1.5 points as the odds on shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/total-points-nicolas-colsaerts

Am I way off beam here?

[TightEnd]

Ist practice pairings are

Poulter/Westwood and Donald/Rose

Rory/Gimac and Lawrie/Garcia

Hanson/Colsaerts  and Molinari/Kaymer

[ACE2M]

I agree Ace. They look like great bets. Would you think they are better win only at slightly bigger prices on jokefair (if you can get matched)? I like the ew part but then I like 75/1+

 How do you work out if it is better to back them Top European or Top All-in? Is it a question of just saying they have to be double the price? (I might be being thick there).

Its complicated to be exact, my simplisctic route to decide - if you take all of the US players out of the overall book % i think we are looking about 21/20 for a euro to be top points scorer so if you look for a little more than double the odds on the overall you should back that if it is, in this case they are so i would back them.  Happy to be corrected on this....

[hector62]

In the last round of this mickey mouse cup we had a theory to oppose favourites as they were not interested and would field weak teams. Will we be doing the same tonight as there are some good looking opportunities. It only takes one to bink, and I would like to have something to cheer on tonight. Any recommends from the footballing bods ?

By the way Mr Tikay I think I prefer the term " cake maestro" to bozo. Bozo doesn't seem to have any hint of reverence or respect. Or at the VERY least Mr Bozo.

[Chompy]

Re: Colsaerts, isn't he likely to be odds against for his singles?

[tikay]

It looks like we will have a raft of wood-be Ryder Cup bets, with a fairway to go yet, so I'll try & summarise them later today, after tee, or in the morning.

Keep them coming please.

Looks like our September figures may hinge on the Ryder Cup.

[edgascoigne]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

I need to get my head round that.

On paper, only three results possible? 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, yes? And they go 5/1?

Assuming they are not stupid, that seems totally wrong, unless there any orther factors we should include?

2.5-1.5 3.5-0.5 also both possible.

remember the drawn matches/half points

Ahh yes. So 9 possible outcomes, as the market includes both sides winning scores.

Why is 2-2 a 5/2 shot then?

Owing to the number of different ways in which it can occur.

Ahh.....

Bear with me, I'll get there eventually. Maybe.....

Sorry for brevity before Tikay. To expand a little, the 2-2 scoreline can be arrived at as below, with European points shown:

Match 1   Match 2   Match 3   Match 4
    1              1            0             0
    1              0            1             0
    1              0            0             1
    0              1            1             0
    0              1            0             1
    0              0            1             1

Then there's all the halved match outcomes...

    1             .5            .5            0
    1             .5             0           .5
    1              0            .5           .5

Etc.