Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

This is the situation regarding our 6's bet in the T20 after the group stage - we have backed Australia.

Pakistan           12
NewZealand     12
England           11
West Indies      11
Australia            9
India                 5
Sri Lanka           3
South Africa      3

considering they chased a smallish Ireland total, and only batted 9 overs in the second match, .....not too bad.

I agree but we also got lucky with the West Indies not getting to bat v the Irish. It's nip and tuck but our boys have shown a desire to hit big. Don't like the idea of us playing at a wet Colombo though.

[Tal]

What we were doing when we set a 300-320 line was splitting the result. We were trying to pick a line where half the time it would go over and half the time under.

 What we were doing when we went for 330-350 was splitting the handle. We were setting a line where half the money we took would be over and half under. When we did this we weren't distinguishing between shrewd and ice-cream (mug) money, we were just ensuring we wouldn't lose.

 You might think that going for the second one (splitting the money) is best as that means you have a quiet life and no worries. It is definitely better to go for the first though (splitting the result). If you split the money you will find after a few months you have sent all your good customers skint. The losers will have come to you as they like to buy and your price is always the lowest, so they will lose quicker. Your winners will have all had a big cheque every week and they'll still be around. You'll now have to spend money on marketing to get new players.

 It's a bit like running an online poker site.

 These two spread companies had lots of clients who worked in the city. These guys supported Arsenal, Spurs and particularly West Ham. They did not support Leicester, Coventry or Charlton who were all in the premier at the time. They loved England in rugby, cricket and football.

 If we attempted to split the result when these teams played we would be swimming against the market and we'd face huge losses if they won by a wide margin. We'd cave in and move towards splitting the money. There would now be opportunities for those who could see value the other way.

 It's a little like financial markets where traders like Warren Buffet rely on fundamentals and believe in regression to the mean. They don't worry about short-term market forces.

 So the big question now is:

 How can we use this long history lesson from Channing to make money today and how does it effect what we are trading on now?

 (I shall attempt to answer this when I get some more time. I have to go out now. I'm also conscious of taking up too much space on the thread and distracting people from gambling).

Fascinating.

Game theory in practice. If this isn't the thread for it, please get one started.

Yours sincerely,

Gino Ginelli

(was going with Mr Whippy but that would be inappropriate; rejected Juan Cornetto on the basis saying that terrible pun out loud makes me physically sick)

[maldini32]

I backed the Windies at the start, still happy with my selection. I'd rate Pakistan as the biggest danger.

[DungBeetle]

"Don't want to labour the point but there is a lot more to a price than the results of the teams and the only way you will be able to win in the long term is to look into those things that are not as obvious as the results."

Point taken. The reason I stressed the form in my original post is because it's the easiest thing to communicate in a background post, rather than just say I fancy XYZ .  When I've looked at the price, in my head given the current home/away form if we ran the game 100 times I'd expect Tranmere to win more than half so I figured evens is a price I'd want to be involved with.  However saying that in a post doesn't seem very enlightened.  Mr Camel thinks that Brentford will prove a tougher nut than that so disagrees.

[DungBeetle]

"Bookies have a 8-10% margin in their prices so they have to be very bad at doing this most basic of tasks for you to have an advantage over them."

Are we saving they never mess up on this task?  The Brighton v Birmingham price identified on Saturday/Sunday at odds against seemed to be a basic error.  Unless I'm mistaken we didn't have any inside knowledge or unique angle when identifying that?

[kukushkin88]

"Bookies have a 8-10% margin in their prices so they have to be very bad at doing this most basic of tasks for you to have an advantage over them."

Are we saving they never mess up on this task?  The Brighton v Birmingham price identified on Saturday/Sunday at odds against seemed to be a basic error.  Unless I'm mistaken we didn't have any inside knowledge or unique angle when identifying that?

The prices still had an 8-10% margin in them. You know that the margin is the overround? The percentage above 100% that the book is priced to i.e they are betting to 108-110%

[DungBeetle]

Yes I understand.  But my point is my Tranmere bet gets kicked out because I've used form to justify my selection and you can't beat the bookie like that due to overround.  But at the same time Brighton can get tipped up for the same reasons (i.e. Brighton on fire and Brum woeful) and that works.

I'm fine with Tranmere not being agreed with (we are here to discuss after all and I probably won't make my bet now as Camel's arguement has had me thinking) but I'm just trying to understand the difference?

[Chompy]

Looks like VC had done their prices on Brighton (11-10) and Barnsley (17-10) before the latter smashed Brum on Saturday evening, and someone forgot to change them.

"I'll take that bet!"

[The Camel]

Yes I understand.  But my point is my Tranmere bet gets kicked out because I've used form to justify my selection and you can't beat the bookie like that due to overround.  But at the same time Brighton can get tipped up for the same reasons (i.e. Brighton on fire and Brum woeful) and that works.

I'm fine with Tranmere not being agreed with (we are here to discuss after all and I probably won't make my bet now as Camel's arguement has had me thinking) but I'm just trying to understand the difference?

We backed Brighton at first show, really before the market was formed.

I wouldn't be backing them now, at the current 10/11

[DungBeetle]

Ah - that makes sense.  The bookies hadn't adjusted for the Birmingham horror show at that stage. 

[DungBeetle]

And Barnsley's excellent display as well.

[bobby1]

Some fall out from the Seattle game Tony.

If you had money on the Seahawks-Packers game Monday night, you got to experience a pretty dramatic swing of emotions. Either you got absolutely screwed by the Hail Mary touchdown that probably wasn't, or you got a gift from the gambling gods.

Before the game, the Seahawks were 3.5-point underdogs, and if the Packers' 12-7 score would have stood, all those who bet on Green Bay (apparently, the vast majority of those gamblers) would have won. Instead, Golden Tate snatched an interception away from Packers safety M.D. Jennings (or so said the replacement officials), scored the touchdown and changed the betting outcome.

So, how did this impact the gambling community?

John Avello, director of the race and sportsbook at the Wynn Las Vegas, told ESPN.com's Darren Rovell that his best guess was that $150 million worldwide was shifted on the game's final play based on what might have been a faulty call by the officials. Jeff Sherman, assistant director of the sportsbook at the Las Vegas hotel, told Rovell he thinks Las Vegas alone took a $15 million hit.

Want an even more extravagant number?

Danny Sheridan, who sets the odds for USA Today, said he thought that $1 billion was shifted because of the call.

Either way, Sportsbook.com decided to refund those who had bet on the Packers, saying it was the right thing to do.

Even the President had his say

Barack Obama
✔
@BarackObama
NFL fans on both sides of the aisle hope the refs' lockout is settled soon. -bo

[Simon Galloway]

Replacement Ref Rule #157: A receiver does not need to catch the ball, as long as he catches the player who caught it.

[bobby1]

Replacement Ref Rule #157: A receiver does not need to catch the ball, as long as he catches the player who caught it.

lol

[doubleup]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

I need to get my head round that.

On paper, only three results possible? 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, yes? And they go 5/1?

Assuming they are not stupid, that seems totally wrong, unless there any orther factors we should include?

2.5-1.5 3.5-0.5 also both possible.

remember the drawn matches/half points

Ahh yes. So 9 possible outcomes, as the market includes both sides winning scores.

Why is 2-2 a 5/2 shot then?

Owing to the number of different ways in which it can occur.

Ahh.....

Bear with me, I'll get there eventually. Maybe.....

aren't the 1.5/2.5 scores too long?  I might have messed up the combis but I calced that there were 81 poss scores and 16 of these were 1.5/2.5 and 16 2.5/1.5  ------ i.e 20%.  The prices are 5-1 to 6-1 with PP.