Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

In the last round of this mickey mouse cup we had a theory to oppose favourites as they were not interested and would field weak teams. Will we be doing the same tonight as there are some good looking opportunities. It only takes one to bink, and I would like to have something to cheer on tonight. Any recommends from the footballing bods ?

By the way Mr Tikay I think I prefer the term " cake maestro" to bozo. Bozo doesn't seem to have any hint of reverence or respect. Or at the VERY least Mr Bozo.

Me too, I'd like to see if there is anything intresting tonight. Apart from anything else, the Televised match (Leeds v Everton, Elland Road) looks interesting, with Leeds @ 9/2.

But we must not "chase" bets, so lets see if anyone can identify some value.

Tonight's League Cup fayre is here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup

Bozo disrespectful?

You know I would never be that.

Lord Bozo, that any better?

No?

OK, Cake King then.

Or if you pick a winner in the League Cup tonight, CupCake.

[tikay]

Hills are 5/1 about the Day 1 Fourballs finishing 2-2.

Massive price. Recommend £40 if they'll let you have it. True price imo more like 11/4. Possibility they will cry palp but not really much justification if they do so, they're just ool.

I need to get my head round that.

On paper, only three results possible? 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, yes? And they go 5/1?

Assuming they are not stupid, that seems totally wrong, unless there any orther factors we should include?

2.5-1.5 3.5-0.5 also both possible.

remember the drawn matches/half points

Ahh yes. So 9 possible outcomes, as the market includes both sides winning scores.

Why is 2-2 a 5/2 shot then?

Owing to the number of different ways in which it can occur.

Ahh.....

Bear with me, I'll get there eventually. Maybe.....

Sorry for brevity before Tikay. To expand a little, the 2-2 scoreline can be arrived at as below, with European points shown:

Match 1   Match 2   Match 3   Match 4
    1              1            0             0
    1              0            1             0
    1              0            0             1
    0              1            1             0
    0              1            0             1
    0              0            1             1

Then there's all the halved match outcomes...

    1             .5            .5            0
    1             .5             0           .5
    1              0            .5           .5

Etc.

Thanks Ed. I got there eventually. My files need defragging when I'm tired.

[hector62]

I shall not be able to proffer any bets for the thread as with 3 on the go it is too much stress for my nitty self to be comfortable with. I am however going to have a dabble on MK Dons to beat Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday to beat Southampton. Not tips as such but because I like the idea of the bigger teams not being bothered and it adds some excitement to a Tuesday evening.

[superwomble]

Nothing against you hector but I hope you lose the first of your bets. Hopefully the second one will win and make up for it!

[tikay]

I shall not be able to proffer any bets for the thread as with 3 on the go it is too much stress for my nitty self to be comfortable with. I am however going to have a dabble on MK Dons to beat Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday to beat Southampton. Not tips as such but because I like the idea of the bigger teams not being bothered and it adds some excitement to a Tuesday evening.

Fair play to you, hope you get a nitty result.

Nitty is King in my world.

[hector62]

Mr Womble. Karma is  very powerful as Mr Tikay and I are so aware of and trying to jinx my mighty MK Dons selection may just give them the nudge they need to win this fixture. Whatever happens it has added spice to the fixture now so I shall really be rooting for them. But I hope your proper Wombling team win when they next play and I shall have a dabble on them too.

[superwomble]

As much as I want you to lose the bet on the scum, I wouldn't wish you to lose any more by betting on us too!

[claypole]

I must be biggest mug punter in the world - I didn't back Wolves at VCI, however have had £200 Barnsley, £200 Bri and a oner double so if it binks fully expect a closure. I wonder if sports related as I am restricted on horses there, thin - however am a bit / lot of a mug punter on footy there, they always seem to come out best multiples, invariably where I lose and rarely have singles there.

Will report back when both win hard held Daturday

[The Camel]

A mixed weekend for me last weekend as Swansea and Wigan were both well beaten, but wins at decent prices for Tranmere and Palace saved my book, although Palace doing it the hard way from 0-2 down so rather fortunate.

Looking at the early prices this weekend, there are some outrageously short prices which are probably worth laying if you are so inclined but I am more of a backer so won’t be taking that option.  Has anyone ever seen Everton at 2/5 for premier league match?  And winless Liverpool are only 8/13 to win at Norwich.  I expect both to win, but think you’d have to be mad to back at those prices.

The first two bets of my weekend selection have already been identified by Fred – Brighton and Barnsley.  Both are excellent value imo.

Anyway, two further recommendations from me – both home teams which I think should be odds on:


Sunderland v Wigan

Sunderland’s purchase of Fletcher looks inspired as he has really brought a focal point to their attacks which was missing last year and has scored in all his games.  They have drawn all of their games so far, but have had a reasonably tough assignment – Arsenal away, Swansea away (before they went “bad”), Liverpool at home and West Ham away.  They probably deserved to beat Swansea and led West Ham till injury time.  I think they’ll definitely be earmarking this as the first victory to get the season up and running.  Wigan were pretty poor at home to Fulham in last week’s loss and won’t be looking forward to this trip.  The loss of Victor Moses to Chelsea has hit them hard as is to be expected.

Recommendation:  Sunderland to beat Wigan at 11/10


Tranmere v Brentford

The Tranmere juggernaut rolled on at Crawley last week, as they registered an impressive 5-2 win at a team I expect to finish top half.  Their league form now reads WWXWXWWW and yet they are still not odds on at home to an inconsistent Brentford.    I quite like Brentford this year – they looked pretty decent when losing at Leyton Orient, but they are reliant on home form so far where they have won their last 3 games.  On the road it is a different story, where they have yet to win despite an easyish looking set of trips to Bury, Walsall, Bournemouth and Leyton Orient.  A visit to Prenton Park seems an upgrade on that against a team that is absolutely flying and I can’t see them coming back down the motorway with anything.

Recommendation:  Tranmere to beat Brentford at evens


Dung

Don't like the Tranmere bet at all.

I think Brentford are quite a lot better than their rceord suggests and are under rated by the market.

The fact Benham can't bet on them means they will often be bigger price than they should be.

[redarmi]

Don't like the Tranmere bet at all.

I think Brentford are quite a lot better than their rceord suggests and are under rated by the market.

The fact Benham can't bet on them means they will often be bigger price than they should be.

Interesting theory.  Does the same thing hold for Brighton generally do you think....can't imagine either gets much pleasure on betting on the others team either.

[The Camel]

Don't like the Tranmere bet at all.

I think Brentford are quite a lot better than their rceord suggests and are under rated by the market.

The fact Benham can't bet on them means they will often be bigger price than they should be.

Interesting theory.  Does the same thing hold for Brighton generally do you think....can't imagine either gets much pleasure on betting on the others team either.

I would certainly think so.

Both teams are often big drifters pre match.

[Horneris]

ye Brentford are class

[Bad Beat]

 I promised a little while ago that I would have a ramble about sports markets and their efficiency and that specifically we could gain from thinking about splitting the result when weighed against splitting the handle. It's quite long so I'll give you a bit to start off and if everyone doesn't tell me to fuck off and leave the thread alone I'll write some more later. I'm probably going to sound long-winded and you may wonder what the fuck I'm on about and what relevance it has to any bets people are thinking about for today but I shall persevere and hopefully you'll see where I am coming from.

 We often talk here about the efficiency of the market. It has been stated in this thread several times that "Betfair is right", "the NFL line is right" and "the Asian handicap market is right". It is without doubt true that these markets have far greater volume, (more people are betting and they are betting bigger), than say the market on somebody to win Strictly Come Dancing. The question is though: "Are these markets any more efficient?" and if "There is no point betting on the Asian soccer market, the price is always right" then how come Tony Bloom has so much money.

 I would say the answer is that he takes advantages of inefficiencies in the market and he obviously chooses the markets with the greater volumes traded as that means he can still get on. He also has inside information that only becomes available to the market once he has traded.

[Bad Beat]

To take you back to ancient history I used to be a trader at City Index for the sports side of the business. I started in 1997 and in 2001 I switched to IG Index. When I started there was no such thing as the internet as far as we and most of our punters were concerned.

 When trading a sports market we would essentially come up with guesses and let the punters decide higher or lower. Both of these firms were quite conservative and risk averse and they would move prices quickly to try and arrive at a market price. One technique you could employ as a trader would be to be a jobber...

...You might set England 1st innings runs at 300-320 and somebody would buy £50. You would then move to 310-330 and another few people would buy a total of £50. The price would move to 320-340 and now a guy would sell £100. you would have no risk and you would have "jobbed" £500. Very nice work if you can get it. To do this you need to be a great reader of markets, the thing you are betting on needs to be liquid - you need enough customers that you can see action whenever you move the price.

 At IG particularly our boss was very happy to see good jobbing. He didn't want any nasty old risk. However when the guy who sold for £100 was sent a cheque after another amazing England collapse there would be a stewards enquiry. It would be pointed out that all those that bought have losing accounts and they are all massive ice-creams whereas that one guy, (we'll call him Tommy Boom), is a massive winner and he shouldn't have had such a big bet. It would be mentioned that he is only to be given £10 bets on runs from now on.

 Next time England open 300-320 we would have buyers up to 320-340 and Mr Boom would be restricted to selling £10 at 320. We would now be more confident in our approach and move to 310-330 again where we would accomodate another load of ice creams. At this stage we'd be cheering with Mr Boom but we knew that even if England declared for 600 we were safe from the sack as we were simply following the sharp money.

[Bad Beat]

What we were doing when we set a 300-320 line was splitting the result. We were trying to pick a line where half the time it would go over and half the time under.

 What we were doing when we went for 330-350 was splitting the handle. We were setting a line where half the money we took would be over and half under. When we did this we weren't distinguishing between shrewd and ice-cream (mug) money, we were just ensuring we wouldn't lose.

 You might think that going for the second one (splitting the money) is best as that means you have a quiet life and no worries. It is definitely better to go for the first though (splitting the result). If you split the money you will find after a few months you have sent all your good customers skint. The losers will have come to you as they like to buy and your price is always the lowest, so they will lose quicker. Your winners will have all had a big cheque every week and they'll still be around. You'll now have to spend money on marketing to get new players.

 It's a bit like running an online poker site.

 These two spread companies had lots of clients who worked in the city. These guys supported Arsenal, Spurs and particularly West Ham. They did not support Leicester, Coventry or Charlton who were all in the premier at the time. They loved England in rugby, cricket and football.

 If we attempted to split the result when these teams played we would be swimming against the market and we'd face huge losses if they won by a wide margin. We'd cave in and move towards splitting the money. There would now be opportunities for those who could see value the other way.

 It's a little like financial markets where traders like Warren Buffet rely on fundamentals and believe in regression to the mean. They don't worry about short-term market forces.

 So the big question now is:

 How can we use this long history lesson from Channing to make money today and how does it effect what we are trading on now?

 (I shall attempt to answer this when I get some more time. I have to go out now. I'm also conscious of taking up too much space on the thread and distracting people from gambling).