Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

The only way Ennis could win is if she takes Tom Queally's  place on Saturday and rides Frankel to a triumphant send-off, then knocks out Manny Pacquiao the week before the awards night.

[claypole]

The only way Ennis could win is if she takes Tom Queally's  place on Saturday and rides Frankel to a triumphant send-off, then knocks out Manny Pacquiao the week before the awards night.

Don't disagree, but if you want to lay me 13/8 a podium and escrow I'm willing to play

[Tal]

The only way Ennis could win is if she takes Tom Queally's  place on Saturday and rides Frankel to a triumphant send-off, then knocks out Manny Pacquiao the week before the awards night.

Don't disagree, but if you want to lay me 13/8 a podium and escrow I'm willing to play

Ha! I agree she's a very, very strong shout for a podium. Can't see past her, Wiggo (as we are now apparently obliged to refer to him, as though he were a character in Swallows and Amazons), Mo the Mobotter and Andy "ComeOn" McWeepy.

I'd question the morality of her finishing above others for winning a single event, as she's really up there for - as Tikay might put it - how neatly she fills an outfit. Nevertheless, this is a thread designed to pick winners and she will likely place.

[tikay]

Apologies, there was no Daily Update today. I'm blown away with work & stuff right now, sorry, & I'm working again tonight.

However........as I finish work at Midnight & will be hyped up,  I'll be staying up to watch the NFL, so I WILL be backing Tighty's Tip, &/or any other "good" tips for the game.

[tikay]

49ers host the Seahawks tonight

For the purposes of discussion:


the Points total quote is very low: 38

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-points

It is easy to see why

Both teams have very good defenses, and hit and miss offenses. In fact Seattle's is more humdrum than hit and miss

This season Seattle games have had points totals of 36,34,26,32,28,47

49ers: 58,46,37,34,47,29

the 49ers though can fire, they have scored over 27+ points in 4 of six games


I think the universal expectation that this will be a low scorer is in the price of 38

I wonder if there is any mileage in going for overs?  


Both teams will be run heavy (and defend the run well too)

49ers traditionally so with Frank Gore, and a dominating OL

Seahawks with Marshawn Lynch, are conservative with Wilson at QB and not the best set of WRs

I think first offensive play to be a run is much shorter than 10/11

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/1st-offensive-play

1st touchdown type, rush, is not odds against, in my opinion

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/1st-touchdown-type

Frank Gore averages 78 yard a game this season, and 76 over a 100 game career

http://www.nfl.com/player/frankgore/2506404/careerstats

Quoted at 65 for this

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-frank-gore

Marshawn Lynch averages 91 yds a game rushing this year, 65 a game over a 78 game career

http://www.nfl.com/player/marshawnlynch/2495663/careerstats

Quoted at 70.5 for this

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch

I am sure there is a portfolio of rushing bets in there somewhere. Yes, both rush defenses are good


Something like

Overs Frank Gore: 65.5 10/11 Ladbrokes

1st TD: Rush 3/2 Ladbrokes

1st Offensive Play: Rush 10/11 Stan James


I think would be attractive, though others may have better ideas or refute this

^^^^^

That. Or this.

I'll not get the bets on until around 1am, as I'm working tonight, but feedback on Tighty's suggestion please, otherwise I will be getting on it later.

Thanks.

[claypole]

I know fred loves SPOTY....just been announced tonight twelve nomination....is my 5/6 messed up women's bet still alive!

[tikay]

49ers host the Seahawks tonight

For the purposes of discussion:


the Points total quote is very low: 38

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-points

It is easy to see why

Both teams have very good defenses, and hit and miss offenses. In fact Seattle's is more humdrum than hit and miss

This season Seattle games have had points totals of 36,34,26,32,28,47

49ers: 58,46,37,34,47,29

the 49ers though can fire, they have scored over 27+ points in 4 of six games


I think the universal expectation that this will be a low scorer is in the price of 38

I wonder if there is any mileage in going for overs?  


Both teams will be run heavy (and defend the run well too)

49ers traditionally so with Frank Gore, and a dominating OL

Seahawks with Marshawn Lynch, are conservative with Wilson at QB and not the best set of WRs

I think first offensive play to be a run is much shorter than 10/11

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/1st-offensive-play

1st touchdown type, rush, is not odds against, in my opinion

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/1st-touchdown-type

Frank Gore averages 78 yard a game this season, and 76 over a 100 game career

http://www.nfl.com/player/frankgore/2506404/careerstats

Quoted at 65 for this

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-frank-gore

Marshawn Lynch averages 91 yds a game rushing this year, 65 a game over a 78 game career

http://www.nfl.com/player/marshawnlynch/2495663/careerstats

Quoted at 70.5 for this

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/total-rushing-yds-marshawn-lynch

I am sure there is a portfolio of rushing bets in there somewhere. Yes, both rush defenses are good


Something like

Overs Frank Gore: 65.5 10/11 Ladbrokes

1st TD: Rush 3/2 Ladbrokes

1st Offensive Play: Rush 10/11 Stan James


I think would be attractive, though others may have better ideas or refute this

 

Thanks Rich. If only that made an iota of sense to me......

We have gone for the lot.

The Gore "over 65.5" with Ladbrokes had moved to "over 70.5", but I've gone with Wm Hill @ "over 68.5", for £55 @ 10/11. 

The "1st TD - Rush" @ 3/2 is on with Ladbrokes, for £40.

The "1st Offensive play - Rush" (I'm assuming "Rush" is the same as "Run".....) is on for £55 @ 10/11 with Stan James.

2 from 3 would be neat, 3 from 3 great, & get us out of a hole. 1 from 3, not so much, 0 from 3, ugh.

Good luck if you are on, & thanks.

Some serious squeezing due in the morning, though if I can stay awake, I plan to watch this.

ON


19 Oct 2012 - Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers - Frank Gore Total Rushing Yards

Over (68.5) @ 10/11

Stake : £55.00


Estimated Returns : £105.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000123/F

_________________________

Selection3/2 - Rushing

EventSeattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers NFL

Market1st Touchdown Type
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Rushing
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential Return: £100.00
Time: 19/10/12 00:59
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000156

_______________________

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers : First Offensive Play Run 10/11
Total stake £55.00
Estimated return £105.00

Full stake £ 55.00
Full Estimated return £ 105.00

[tikay]

Someone will need to tell me if these win or lose, I'm not sure I understand them all.

[TightEnd]

First bet wins, 1st play was a run

[tikay]

First bet wins, 1st play was a run

Ooh, nice one Rich!

We just need one of the other two to get home and we are in profit.

Gore has 13 yards so far, right?

[TightEnd]

Gore has 15 or so. We need sf to be close or leading for most of this, so they stick with the run. Go way behind, and they'll have to throw. This is the basis of the bet really.

[TightEnd]

39 yards rushing ht for gore. He has only 6 carries though. Staggered they are not riding him more given how their receivers are being bullied

[TightEnd]

Touchdown bet down. Gore 61 yards with 18 minutes to play. 8 more yards for a profitable night

[TightEnd]

Big run boom winner. 2 out of 3 on the night. Lynch made the overs too, should have gone for the full whack.

[typhoon13]

Big run boom winner. 2 out of 3 on the night. Lynch made the overs too, should have gone for the full whack.

Another good call sir