Tips for Tikay

[superwomble]

You learn something new every day!

http://lifehacker.com/5311002/open-a-banana-like-a-monkey

[hector62]

Oh I do like that expression " faulty banana". Before I learned the proper technique I sometimes used to use a knife to cut that top bit to get into it. I do know one weird person who cuts the banana in half to open it !

[Tal]

Have just informed the office. Hundreds of minds blown in one missive. Incredible.

Sadly, the dignity at work policy was enforced when a girl asked how to do it and the response came back "just grab the bottom, squeeze the tip and it'll pull away easily"

Childish laughter ensued.

[Tal]

I didn't get it, obviously.

[bobby1]

Thread needs a template for footy bets imo.

Any suggested bet posted that mentions league positions, current home and away records, historical head to heads from a decade that some of today's players were born in and the like should automatically get the no no. Nobody compiling these prices has missed where the teams are in the league, nor what their H and A records are.

That is how most betting shop punters pick their accas out at ten to three on a Saturday afternoon.


If it doesn't include some info as to why the price is wrong ie, team news, weather, motivation differences, schedule quirks etc, % of home draw away wins in each league even then it doesn't get in either. There is a generic starting price for each selection  in every league in the world based on historical stats. The last ten years results before this season in England are here.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fbAaZGOam9g/TgSysFhZiGI/AAAAAAAAAA0/MqxGfu_W5xo/s1600/winpercenttable.jpg

If you take the % of home wins in say league two for the last few years it looks to be around a home win % of just over 40%......for the sake of an example in betting terms lets call it 11/8 (42.1), so the starting price for the home team in a game between two teams of equal ability before taking team news, weather and other factors mentioned above is around the 11/8 mark in league 2 coming into this season. In simple form, If you think the home team are a bit better than the away team and the price is 11/10 in that league then that is already taken into account, it already says this team are better. Just putting up the bet coz you think team A are actually better and are 11/10 is completely accounted for already.

I remember a Saturday a few weeks back when thread had 2 bets in League 2 ( and I am not intentionally picking out the lads that put these two selections up, they just stuck in the memory)

One was a bet on Bradford at 10/11 because the guy thought they were a much better team than York. At 10/11 the price tells you that is the general consensus tho. If you start from 11/8 which is the price of two teams of equal ability and work down to 10/11 to account for your idea of how better Bradford are then you go thru a lot of prices to get there. What wasn't mentioned tho is that is a decent sized derby match at that level, there was no team news or weather factors nor what price I think it should be.

On the same day someone else put up Gillingham away at Oxford because they were top of the league with a good away record and Oxford had a poor record and were bottom half of the table. All of that is known by everyone pricing that game up. Those stats were almost the sole reason given for the bet but it never even mentioned that Oxford have had a terrible run of injuries at the start of the season and were gradually getting players back.

We used to have a saying when pricing up fixtures 'league tables tell lies'


Seems the most recent footy bets are mainly a load of bets put up on match day featuring most of the first paragraph without much comprehension as to just how much info needs to go into a match price and what price in each league the home  draw and away prices should be as a starting point.

[horseplayer]

Thread needs a template for footy bets imo.

Any suggested bet posted that mentions league positions, current home and away records, historical head to heads from a decade that some of today's players were born in and the like should automatically get the no no. Nobody compiling these prices has missed where the teams are in the league, nor what their H and A records are.

That is how most betting shop punters pick their accas out at ten to three on a Saturday afternoon.


If it doesn't include some info as to why the price is wrong ie, team news, weather, motivation differences, schedule quirks etc, % of home draw away wins in each league even then it doesn't get in either. There is a generic starting price for each selection  in every league in the world based on historical stats. The last ten years results before this season in England are here.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fbAaZGOam9g/TgSysFhZiGI/AAAAAAAAAA0/MqxGfu_W5xo/s1600/winpercenttable.jpg

If you take the % of home wins in say league two for the last few years it looks to be around a home win % of just over 40%......for the sake of an example in betting terms lets call it 11/8 (42.1), so the starting price for the home team in a game between two teams of equal ability before taking team news, weather and other factors mentioned above is around the 11/8 mark in league 2 coming into this season. In simple form, If you think the home team are a bit better than the away team and the price is 11/10 in that league then that is already taken into account, it already says this team are better. Just putting up the bet coz you think team A are actually better and are 11/10 is completely accounted for already.

I remember a Saturday a few weeks back when thread had 2 bets in League 2 ( and I am not intentionally picking out the lads that put these two selections up, they just stuck in the memory)

One was a bet on Bradford at 10/11 because the guy thought they were a much better team than York. At 10/11 the price tells you that is the general consensus tho. If you start from 11/8 which is the price of two teams of equal ability and work down to 10/11 to account for your idea of how better Bradford are then you go thru a lot of prices to get there. What wasn't mentioned tho is that is a decent sized derby match at that level, there was no team news or weather factors nor what price I think it should be.

On the same day someone else put up Gillingham away at Oxford because they were top of the league with a good away record and Oxford had a poor record and were bottom half of the table. All of that is known by everyone pricing that game up. Those stats were almost the sole reason given for the bet but it never even mentioned that Oxford have had a terrible run of injuries at the start of the season and were gradually getting players back.

We used to have a saying when pricing up fixtures 'league tables tell lies'


Seems the most recent footy bets are mainly a load of bets put up on match day featuring most of the first paragraph without much comprehension as to just how much info needs to go into a match price and what price in each league the home  draw and away prices should be as a starting point.

great post

[AceHighSuited]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.  I'm not saying they haven't been factored into the price but how heavily weighted are they?

Last night for example, I was opposed to Dubai's bet on Messi to score simply due to his goal scoring record against British teams in past champions league matches.  I took it that Dubai had done the math and thought the price was incorrect, I'm not sure he factored in history or indeed that the odds compilers did?  Because invariably Messi is the same price to score in every other game.  With the exception of v Real Madrid.  I laid quite a bit at 1.33 on Betty, I never came on here dissing Dubai's bet though as we clearly looked at it in different ways.  

I would agree that a lot of posters simply look at league positions, but there are people on here who are local to the action and they seem to get hold of bits and bobs that no doubt the compilers aren't aware of.  

Personally, I think there has to be a cut off time for bets rather than a template.  Some bets are rushed due to time constraints and some are just random punts without any thought, those are the selections that need to be weeded out imo.  Unless there is anything specific we find out late in the day I think we should be trying to place our bets earlier and have a discussion surrounding the selections.  There used to be a fair bit of discussion earlier in the thread but that by and large has stopped.  

[Dubai]

I had no opinion on Messis price. Just if its 1.33 to lay on bf and you can take 1.67 and only lose 3.5% on the win part, its just a must bet. No need to look into it, the maths just dictates that you win everytime you place the bet.

[AceHighSuited]

I had no opinion on Messis price. Just if its 1.33 to lay on bf and you can take 1.67 and only lose 3.5% on the win part, its just a must bet. No need to look into it, the maths just dictates that you win everytime you place the bet.

I don't disagree on the math, but the point is that it can be wrong on occasion like the odds compilers no matter what information is taken into consideration.  Some of the guys on here obviously punt for a living and no doubt place a greater emphasis on the numbers but that is not 100% proof. 

I think a debate on the math could be worthwhile to thread, I'll put my hands on the table and say its not my strongest area.  Mental arithmetic I am cool with but as for the rest of it, not my cuppa.  So I would certainly appreciate discussing it further.  I'm sure others would as well.

[kukushkin88]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.  I'm not saying they haven't been factored into the price but how heavily weighted are they?

Last night for example, I was opposed to Dubai's bet on Messi to score simply due to his goal scoring record against British teams in past champions league matches.  I took it that Dubai had done the math and thought the price was incorrect, I'm not sure he factored in history or indeed that the odds compilers did?  Because invariably Messi is the same price to score in every other game.  With the exception of v Real Madrid.  I laid quite a bit at 1.33 on Betty, I never came on here dissing Dubai's bet though as we clearly looked at it in different ways.  

I would agree that a lot of posters simply look at league positions, but there are people on here who are local to the action and they seem to get hold of bits and bobs that no doubt the compilers aren't aware of.  

Personally, I think there has to be a cut off time for bets rather than a template.  Some bets are rushed due to time constraints and some are just random punts without any thought, those are the selections that need to be weeded out imo.  Unless there is anything specific we find out late in the day I think we should be trying to place our bets earlier and have a discussion surrounding the selections.  There used to be a fair bit of discussion earlier in the thread but that by and large has stopped.  

It's much more important that we react quickly and intelligently to any new information that comes to light, rather than having a discussion, the vast majority of information that would be contributed to a discussion is already in the price. 100% agree with Bobby's post particularly the historical head to heads as justification for a bet, it just isn't relevant.

[AndrewT]

As I saw it, the purpose of the thread is to spot value bets. If none can be found, then there is no bet.

Those suggesting bets don't have to offer a tip on every game/set of fixtures - there needs to be a compelling reason why you are right and the bookie is wrong. Something you have spotted that they (or the market) have neglected.

[aaron1867]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.

He isn't saying to rule it out, but he is saying that matches are priced accordingly on recent results, positions, etc.

Therefore backing a bet up with the above is perhaps ridic, as price probably suggests/knows it.

[Tal]

Maths. Sorry, but maths.

BTW where's the Bad Beat Model we had a while back? That set out three simple rules for where a tip would be meritorious. Bobby's post is in support of one of those.

I'm the kind of ice cream that bets on things he thinks might win. This is why other people make (more) money out of gambling. I back the odd outsider if I think it has a better chance than the 33-1 listing but that's about it.

This thread is interesting because the rationale behind why prices are wrong and where the "value" is hidden away are what turns Saturday afternoon mugs into edge-thirsty winning gamblers.

It's also great banter.

[DungBeetle]

I have a question for people who have worked in the industry.  On the season points spreads I find that the bookies generally seem less accurate on pricing up the lower division as opposed to Premier and Championship.  Is this because they just do the lower leagues to provide a complete service for the marketing, and thus know they will have less volume and thus spend less time on it?  Or is it purely because due to lower differences between teams it is harder to predict.

Is this the same for the compilers doing a Saturday coupon?  

[AceHighSuited]

To my naked eye, and I know the sample is pretty small but I would think some of the smarter pro punters who post on this thread are probably resultant in some of the biggest losers.  

Is that because their bets are accepted literally without any discussion?  Or is it because the numbers aren't always correct?

If the odds compilers are any good then we're literally going to struggle most of the time to find an edge unless we know something they don't.  And lets be fair, that'd likely to happen on a handful of occasions.

I'm trying to get a better understanding myself of how some of the guys on here perceive value.

I like reading the well constructed posts by certain posters who make a compelling case for a selection but similarly, I think there are posts with just about every stat under the sun that the books already have access to so that's when an opnion comes into play.