Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

did not take long for the cease fire to be broken!

[tikay]

Shocking slowroll itt by Camel.

A beautifully written post.

Looking positive, yup.

But alas almost complete bollocks.

Not so much, no.

Quality stuff.

People seem to either love or hate MANTIS. Me? I think he's terrific, but it helps when you have met folks face to face. There is no doubt he really works at his Posts, & they are a unique style.




 

[tikay]

did not take long for the cease fire to be broken!

If you refer to Camel & MANTIS, I think it's spot on, a quality debate between two top posters who make their case without resorting to puerile invective. The more of that the better, imo.

MANTIS's point, generally, is right, imo, but I think Mr Messi is the exception to the rule, as he's clearly different class.   

PS - You feeling better now?

[horseplayer]

maybe i just dont get the whole background of some posters on here

a bit thanks still not great supposed to be going away this weekend heres hoping

[The Camel]

Mantis 4/11
Camel 2/1

[tikay]

maybe i just dont get the whole background of some posters on here

a bit thanks still not great supposed to be going away this weekend heres hoping

My fault, for not explaining properly.

MANTIS is a veteran poster here, but mostly across the rest of the Forum, who usually takes the role of Devils Advocate, which he does most eloquently.  

He does not Post here in Fred very much because we shamed him over some X-Factor drivel which he forced us to bet. ALWAYS read between the lines in a MANTIS Post, whereas wirth Camel, you generally know where you are.

PS - Note my signature, where Camel suggested MANTIS & I were fellow poker ice-creams.

[AndrewT]

Good news for the Obama bet - 800,000 people (12% of the total votes cast in 2008) have already voted in Ohio and polls of those suggest a reasonable lead for Obama.

[TheChipPrince]

Value Alert

It may not win, it probably won't, you may not even like it.

But VC Midweek bundle tonight is Liverpool/Lazio/Newcastle/Spurs @ 15/1

Taking the best prices available at 1:20pm

Liverpool 21/20
Spurs 8/11
Newcastle 4/6
Lazio 11/10

Makes it only a 11/1 shot ish, and those prices are not with the same bookie.

Liverpool will play a strong-ish team tonight too, and Panathinakos are in dire straits.

£20 here will be plenty

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr Tikay. Dr Noh got them right where he wants them - 2 shots behind but another 3 rounds to go. Slowly slowly catchee....

I know Mr Tikay likes to think of himself as an ice cream salesman. Well I pride myself on being the wholesaler who supplies him with his wares.

I am going to open the debate on a football match tonight. In this thread it has been proposed for a while that Liverpool are consistently being over rated by the layers. Tonight they play Anzhi, the team currently top of the Russian league and also the richest team in world football. Coincidence? Liverpool lost at home to Udinese whilst Anzhi drew with them in Italy. Liverpool have played weakened teams in this competition already and on Sunday they have to play Everton. Which game is most important to Liverpool ?

I have often written that I can not prove that a price is wrong but to my mind getting 3-1 for Anzhi is a good bet. Now feel free to pull my suggestion to bits as I am off to bake a cake.

[MANTIS01]

The way I see things it was the whole viewing public who embarrassed themselves by not making Vince Kidd their winner. Has anybody heard of the winner since? I am sorry Vince.

If I picked Camel up and plonked him down blindfolded in a random European stadium during a match he would be able to tell me within one second whether he was in England or Turkey. The point isn’t which grounds are more aggro it’s the fact the atmosphere is unique. Not only the crowd, but the sights, the smells, the people, will all make for a unique environment. If that environment is associated with past successes it will inspire a better performance. If on the other hand it is associated with past failures it’s more likely to inhibit performance.  He won’t lie in bed before the game worrying because that is conscious thought but when he is submersed in the environment it can then trigger cognitive feelings of not being on top of your game. Sure a 90% Messi can still score but I think he is just a bit less likely to score. These subconscious feelings will affect Messi just like everybody else on account that he is a human being.

Barnsley haven’t won at QPR on their last 22 visits. Many clubs of equal ability have won at Loftus Road in that time. On their next visit I reckon Barnsley fans and players will have less confidence than a random team because of those stats. They shouldn’t because there’s no such thing as a bogey ground, it’s just variance, but they will because they are people.

[horseplayer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Gkx_DY8yEvw#!


you are heskeys bitch

[redarmi]

The way I see things it was the whole viewing public who embarrassed themselves by not making Vince Kidd their winner. Has anybody heard of the winner since? I am sorry Vince.

If I picked Camel up and plonked him down blindfolded in a random European stadium during a match he would be able to tell me within one second whether he was in England or Turkey. The point isn’t which grounds are more aggro it’s the fact the atmosphere is unique. Not only the crowd, but the sights, the smells, the people, will all make for a unique environment. If that environment is associated with past successes it will inspire a better performance. If on the other hand it is associated with past failures it’s more likely to inhibit performance.  He won’t lie in bed before the game worrying because that is conscious thought but when he is submersed in the environment it can then trigger cognitive feelings of not being on top of your game. Sure a 90% Messi can still score but I think he is just a bit less likely to score. These subconscious feelings will affect Messi just like everybody else on account that he is a human being.

Barnsley haven’t won at QPR on their last 22 visits. Many clubs of equal ability have won at Loftus Road in that time. On their next visit I reckon Barnsley fans and players will have less confidence than a random team because of those stats. They shouldn’t because there’s no such thing as a bogey ground, it’s just variance, but they will because they are people.

There is obviously a grain of truth in this all but only a grain and you have to think beyond the stat.  H2H's in football betting are widely overused.  If Barnsley have not won on 22 trips to Loftus Road then that may have some relevance if a) they have played each other in each of the past 22 seasons b) that is built up in the media c) both teams have had fairly settled teams for the past few years and d) on a couple of occasions in the past few years they have been thrashed there.  Unfortunately all of the above are fairly unlikely.  In actual fact probably in excess of half of those game have happened 30+ years ago when Rodney Marsh etc were playing for Barnsley and they would have been true 4/11 shots and they have absolutely no relevance on today.  As thick and superstitious as many footballers and fans are even they would not be so stupid as to think the outcome of a match 35 years ago has any relevance on today.

As for the Messi bet it is just lazy backfitting to say he doesn't like playing British clubs.  I think it is a stretch but i suppose it is  possible that he may mentally not do well against sides like Chelsea, Arsenal etc but do we think Celtic really fit into that mould.  Take the example further, what if by some miracle Walsall ended up playing Barcelona in some game maybe the Europa League.  Do you really think young Lionel would wake up at the Village hotel by junction ten on the morning of the game thinking "ooooh I don't like these games against these tough English foes"  No he would think if I score a hatrick in the first ten minutes the boss might give me a rest and I might make it to J10 for the £10 rebuy!!!

[The Camel]

The way I see things it was the whole viewing public who embarrassed themselves by not making Vince Kidd their winner. Has anybody heard of the winner since? I am sorry Vince.

If I picked Camel up and plonked him down blindfolded in a random European stadium during a match he would be able to tell me within one second whether he was in England or Turkey. The point isn’t which grounds are more aggro it’s the fact the atmosphere is unique. Not only the crowd, but the sights, the smells, the people, will all make for a unique environment. If that environment is associated with past successes it will inspire a better performance. If on the other hand it is associated with past failures it’s more likely to inhibit performance.  He won’t lie in bed before the game worrying because that is conscious thought but when he is submersed in the environment it can then trigger cognitive feelings of not being on top of your game. Sure a 90% Messi can still score but I think he is just a bit less likely to score. These subconscious feelings will affect Messi just like everybody else on account that he is a human being.

Barnsley haven’t won at QPR on their last 22 visits. Many clubs of equal ability have won at Loftus Road in that time. On their next visit I reckon Barnsley fans and players will have less confidence than a random team because of those stats. They shouldn’t because there’s no such thing as a bogey ground, it’s just variance, but they will because they are people.

There is obviously a grain of truth in this all but only a grain and you have to think beyond the stat.  H2H's in football betting are widely overused.  If Barnsley have not won on 22 trips to Loftus Road then that may have some relevance if a) they have played each other in each of the past 22 seasons b) that is built up in the media c) both teams have had fairly settled teams for the past few years and d) on a couple of occasions in the past few years they have been thrashed there.  Unfortunately all of the above are fairly unlikely.  In actual fact probably in excess of half of those game have happened 30+ years ago when Rodney Marsh etc were playing for Barnsley and they would have been true 4/11 shots and they have absolutely no relevance on today.  As thick and superstitious as many footballers and fans are even they would not be so stupid as to think the outcome of a match 35 years ago has any relevance on today.

As for the Messi bet it is just lazy backfitting to say he doesn't like playing British clubs.  I think it is a stretch but i suppose it is  possible that he may mentally not do well against sides like Chelsea, Arsenal etc but do we think Celtic really fit into that mould.  Take the example further, what if by some miracle Walsall ended up playing Barcelona in some game maybe the Europa League.  Do you really think young Lionel would wake up at the Village hotel by junction ten on the morning of the game thinking "ooooh I don't like these games against these tough English foes"  No he would think if I score a hatrick in the first ten minutes the boss might give me a rest and I might make it to J10 for the £10 rebuy!!!

I would pay good money to watch Messi trying to work out whether the dazzling Cornelius was bluffing or not.

[redarmi]

For those that bet with Pinny, you may want to review your gambling arrangements.

http://www.lvrj.com/business/sports-book-director-for-cantor-gaming-arrested-175670521.html

Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert was arrested Wednesday in Las Vegas by state gaming agents in connection with a warrant filed by the district attorney in Queens County, N.Y.

Gaming and legal sources confirmed the charges involve PinnacleSports.com, one of the largest offshore sports wagering websites. Sources said agents for the website were arrested in several cities Wednesday.

I Pm'ed a few people on here I thought might have had big balances at Pinny last night.  This is pretty wide ranging stuff and a lot of the biggest movers and cogs in the US market have had visits over this and a fair few have been arrested.  I think Pinnacle will probably be okay but it makes sense to be a bit cautious I think.

[MANTIS01]

The way I see things it was the whole viewing public who embarrassed themselves by not making Vince Kidd their winner. Has anybody heard of the winner since? I am sorry Vince.

If I picked Camel up and plonked him down blindfolded in a random European stadium during a match he would be able to tell me within one second whether he was in England or Turkey. The point isn’t which grounds are more aggro it’s the fact the atmosphere is unique. Not only the crowd, but the sights, the smells, the people, will all make for a unique environment. If that environment is associated with past successes it will inspire a better performance. If on the other hand it is associated with past failures it’s more likely to inhibit performance.  He won’t lie in bed before the game worrying because that is conscious thought but when he is submersed in the environment it can then trigger cognitive feelings of not being on top of your game. Sure a 90% Messi can still score but I think he is just a bit less likely to score. These subconscious feelings will affect Messi just like everybody else on account that he is a human being.

Barnsley haven’t won at QPR on their last 22 visits. Many clubs of equal ability have won at Loftus Road in that time. On their next visit I reckon Barnsley fans and players will have less confidence than a random team because of those stats. They shouldn’t because there’s no such thing as a bogey ground, it’s just variance, but they will because they are people.

There is obviously a grain of truth in this all but only a grain and you have to think beyond the stat.  H2H's in football betting are widely overused.  If Barnsley have not won on 22 trips to Loftus Road then that may have some relevance if a) they have played each other in each of the past 22 seasons b) that is built up in the media c) both teams have had fairly settled teams for the past few years and d) on a couple of occasions in the past few years they have been thrashed there.  Unfortunately all of the above are fairly unlikely.  In actual fact probably in excess of half of those game have happened 30+ years ago when Rodney Marsh etc were playing for Barnsley and they would have been true 4/11 shots and they have absolutely no relevance on today.  As thick and superstitious as many footballers and fans are even they would not be so stupid as to think the outcome of a match 35 years ago has any relevance on today.

As for the Messi bet it is just lazy backfitting to say he doesn't like playing British clubs.  I think it is a stretch but i suppose it is  possible that he may mentally not do well against sides like Chelsea, Arsenal etc but do we think Celtic really fit into that mould.  Take the example further, what if by some miracle Walsall ended up playing Barcelona in some game maybe the Europa League.  Do you really think young Lionel would wake up at the Village hotel by junction ten on the morning of the game thinking "ooooh I don't like these games against these tough English foes"  No he would think if I score a hatrick in the first ten minutes the boss might give me a rest and I might make it to J10 for the £10 rebuy!!!

My comments should be disassociated from the Celtic game because that never entered my head. This is a general point. In fact I was specifically thinking about a period where Messi struggled to score against Italian teams. The proposed answer was Italian teams traditionally have the best technical defenders and set their teams up around containment and defence.

Anyway, I read a post from Camel inviting people to give him one good reason why a bad run isn’t just variance. If there is a grain of truth in my cognitive memory argument then that is one good reason. Another good reason I offered is improved performance from defenders who have contained him before, so better confidence & knowledge in future matches. Another good reason is how teams are traditionally set up and tactics used as in the example above. So here we have three good reasons why it isn’t just variance, and any grain of truth is a winning margin.

Incidentally I would back Messi to score against the saddlers too.