Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 1630, Friday November 2nd

We made a profit (a what?) of £60 yesterday.

After some difficulty, I was eventually able to locate the blue text.

One bet completed, one bet won.

Amazing how mood & sentiment can change so quickly.

The winner (£60) was Bazzaboy's wonderfully accurate prediction of how the Gavin-Witter brawl would pan out. The fight was - apparently - not easy on the eye, & mid-fight, blonde crashed, but all ended well. Good shout Bazza, thank you.

We have some ground to make up after an awful October, but no good looking back, we just need to press on, keep the discipline, & avoid too many mistakes.


Trivial Stat - after yesteday's £60 Bink, Fred is back in overall profit. Photo finish though, it was on the nod.

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[redarmi]

Looked at some early basketball spreads the one that stood out to me was New Orleans Hornets +3.5 at home vs the Jazz.

Hornets did very well in the draft picking up 3 very promising youngsters and they showed this in their first game at home to the Spurs when the Hornets were in control for most of the game but were finally outdone by the veteran spurs in the 4th Q. I think they can definitely compete with a very weak road team like the Utah Jazz though who had a road record of 11-22 last season.

This hornets team is going to surprise a few people this year imo although they won't be world beaters I think the playoffs is a real possibility this year.

Also think there is some value in the ML @ 6/4

Im on the spread though @ +3.5 before it moves as I have learnt from the trail blazers bet i suggested before the odds slashed they obviously won convincingly too

hornets still +3.5 I think its a decent line still, don't want to suggest anything in monetary terms but whatever you would be willing to risk if any.

Looks like the books have already turned on the lakers too and made the clippers a 1.5 point favourite over them "@ lakers" (or in laker court dress i should say) thoughts on this one anyone? Think I might just leave it lakers gota show up some time right? Also Dwight Howard was much improved game 2 compared to game 1 and will continue to get better. Not sure whether Nash is out of the game tonight yet, could be why clippers are favourites? anyone know?

Nash is doubtful apparently which officially means 50/50 but in reality they are normally slightly more likely to play than miss.

[redarmi]

Actually I think  I have that wrong.  Doubtful is 75% not to play iirc.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr Tikay.

If this one goes wrong then I shall blame it on giving blood earlier today so I am obviously more tired than usual.

Rugby Union Sale v London Irish. Tonight the bottom 2 teams clash with both teams thinking they can win and it is a must win game for both. It is cold and there is rain forecast so I do not expect a lot of points. Most firms are going around the 10/11 for under 44 points ish with Ladbrokes going 5/6 for under 41.5.  But there is one firm that are offering 7/4 for under 40 points which is way better than anything else available.

In their 3 home league fixtures Sale have scored a total of 43 points. In their 3 away league fixtures London Irish have scored a total of 28 points. Giving an average of just under 24 points.

Suggest £20 under 40 points @ 7/4 Stan James.

[tikay]

some breeders cup analysis and thoughts tikay i will leave any bet amounts to you



I really like Zagora in the F&M Turf http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-filly-and-mare-turf. This isn't an easy race for European horses to win and I don't think The Fugue is as good as any of the previous winners, although she looks a perfect type for the race. Zagora is too, though - she's got an excellent turn of foot and ran a massive figure in the Ballston Spa. Needs firm ground, but still ran great on yielding behind Nahrain last time. 20/1 looks offensive. Don't like Ridasiyna at all - conditions will be different in every regard from Longchamp.

I liked how Flashy Ways did the job last time. Got the perfect trip there, but quickened up well and powered through the line. Might be tricky to beat Sky Lantern - not a bad price herself at - but she's 16s or so and worth a chance. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-juvenile-fillies-turf

Finally, thought George Vancouver could move up massively now he encounters firm ground. Ran as well as could be expected last time, and I consider his form to be the best. Mile should be ok on a sharp track. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-juvenile-turf

Thanks Horsey. We've investerd our ENTIRE November Profit on these. Yup, that much. They are all covered on ATR.

ZAGORA (10.48 tonight), £20 @ 14/1, Wm Hil.

FLASHY WAYS (9.28 tonight) £20 @ 16/1, BetVictor.

George Vancouver (6.50 tomorrow), £20 @ 8/1, Blue Square.


ON

02 Nov 2012 - 10:48 Santa Anita - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Zagora @ 14/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £300.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000146/F

_____________


Santa Anita (Usa) 21:28
FLASHY WAYS
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  16/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  340.00


______________


George Vancouver @ 8/1 
Market
 Win or Each Way
 
Event
 Santa Anita
6.50 - BC Juvenile Turf
2012-11-03 18:50:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £20.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £20.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-02 16:48:04
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000120
 

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr Tikay.

If this one goes wrong then I shall blame it on giving blood earlier today so I am obviously more tired than usual.

Rugby Union Sale v London Irish. Tonight the bottom 2 teams clash with both teams thinking they can win and it is a must win game for both. It is cold and there is rain forecast so I do not expect a lot of points. Most firms are going around the 10/11 for under 44 points ish with Ladbrokes going 5/6 for under 41.5.  But there is one firm that are offering 7/4 for under 40 points which is way better than anything else available.

In their 3 home league fixtures Sale have scored a total of 43 points. In their 3 away league fixtures London Irish have scored a total of 28 points. Giving an average of just under 24 points.

Suggest £20 under 40 points @ 7/4 Stan James.

Afternoon hector. Hope the blood thing was not a too onerous Half Hour. 

Oh my, that looks VALUE.

It seems to tick most boxes, & it looks so good (in value terms, relative to the market) that I was tempted to bet more, but I know you prefer to keep the stakes sensible, so we have gone exactly as specified.

£20 @ 7/4, Stan James, UNDER 40 points, Sale Sharks v London Irish, which starts at 8pm tonight.


ON


£20.00 Single
Selection   Price  
Sale Sharks v London Irish
Total Points
 Under 40  7/4
Total stake  £ 20.00
Estimated return  £ 55.00

Full stake  £ 20.00
Full estimated return  £ 55.00

[tikay]

Looked at some early basketball spreads the one that stood out to me was New Orleans Hornets +3.5 at home vs the Jazz.

Hornets did very well in the draft picking up 3 very promising youngsters and they showed this in their first game at home to the Spurs when the Hornets were in control for most of the game but were finally outdone by the veteran spurs in the 4th Q. I think they can definitely compete with a very weak road team like the Utah Jazz though who had a road record of 11-22 last season.

This hornets team is going to surprise a few people this year imo although they won't be world beaters I think the playoffs is a real possibility this year.

Also think there is some value in the ML @ 6/4

Im on the spread though @ +3.5 before it moves as I have learnt from the trail blazers bet i suggested before the odds slashed they obviously won convincingly too

OK, let's try again on Basketball, & the game starts at Midnight, so we can have an early morning squeeze.

New Orleans Hornets, +3.5, £44 @ 10/11 with Blue Square.

ON


New Orleans Hornets +3.5 @ 10/11 
Market
 Handicap Winner
 
Event
 NBA
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets
2012-11-03 00:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £44.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £44.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-02 17:20:56
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000121
 

[TL900]

glglgl

[tikay]

glglgl

The Basketball comeback starts here.......

[Junior Senior]

6/5 Arlesey to score Tighty?

got to be worth a smiling pavarotti. on!

[tikay]

Mr Obama gets ever shorter......


http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

[AndrewT]

Mr Obama gets ever shorter......


http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

If the polls are to be believed things look super bleak for Romney now. He's been unlucky in that Sandy means Obama has had a few days looking all presidential whilst Romney has to sit in the shadows, ignored. Also today, Romney lost his last real chance to make an impact when the latest jobs figures were announced and they were good.

Obama winning is now a lock and things aren't looking too bad for our EC votes bet - if states voted as the latest polls suggest, Obama would win all we need him to except Florida, and Florida is only a edging to Romney by a hair.

[tikay]

Its the FA Cup first round tomorrow

For someone like me who follows Non League, closely, this is a really interesting betting opportunity

One of those days where you can get mis-pricings because you can know more than an odds-setter.


Arlesey is a village in Bedfordshire. Step 7 of English football. Get crowds of 100, on a good day

Their team comprises six players straight out of league football, and a player who last season scored 40 goals in under 50 games. For the team I am involved with

The team is funded by a multi-millionaire gentleman who owns a big doors and windows company. Obviously its not funded by turnstile receipts etc

Tomorrow they travel to Coventry City

Coventry are vulnerable, and have really not picked up for since Mark Robins was appointed six weeks ago. Have won three times in fifteen games since relegation last season

Arlesey are 11-1 on the outrights.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/coventry-v-arlesey/winner

Coventry can be laid at 1.2 on Betfair


It's worth a speculative interest. Especially because they have goals in them, while at the same time Coventry average a goal a game this season only

Arlesey Town are a bit like Truro, Hornchurch, Canvey and others whose non-league stars burned bright while the finance was available (and then fell to earth with a bang as it is unsustainable without that funding).....not no-hopers in this tomorrow by any means

Suggest either lay £60 at 1.2 Coventry (Liability £12) or £10 Arlesey on the outright at 11-1

Thanks Rich.

We have gone for Arseley to win, £10 @ 11/1, Ladbrokes, and Arseley to score a goal, £10 @ 21/20, BWin. (Coventry v Arseley, FA Cup, SAturday).


ON




Selection11/1 - Arlesey

EventCoventry v Arlesey English

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Arlesey
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential Return: £120.00
Time: 02/11/12 17:40
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000171

____________


11/2/2012 6:43 PM Single bet   Coventry City - Arlesey Town (Will Team 2 score a goal?) Yes ? 10.00 21/20

[tikay]

Mr Obama gets ever shorter......


http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

If the polls are to be believed things look super bleak for Romney now. He's been unlucky in that Sandy means Obama has had a few days looking all presidential whilst Romney has to sit in the shadows, ignored. Also today, Romney lost his last real chance to make an impact when the latest jobs figures were announced and they were good.

Obama winning is now a lock and things aren't looking too bad for our EC votes bet - if states voted as the latest polls suggest, Obama would win all we need him to except Florida, and Florida is only a edging to Romney by a hair.

It's an ill wind......

[redarmi]

I dont say this very often but I think Obama is close to a racing certainty now.  Obviously something untoward could happen but given he has been in office for four years and in the public spotlight for six plus years now it seems unlikely and all of the momentum is in his favour.  I think there is significant value in some of the states and had bets on Colorado and Virginia yesterday.