Tips for Tikay

[mondatoo]

Newcastle seem big to me @ 19/10 with WH, I assume that the fact Colocini and Tiote are serving suspensions in the lge thus will most likely play tonight will be already in the price, so if not for that we'd have been bigger than 9/4 then ? Seems big considering how well we're doing in Europe. Also Brugge just sacked their manager after losing 4 in a row.

This is more a feeler than a tip.

Newcastle have met Belgian opposition on seven previous occasions (including their 1-0 win over Brugge last month) and have won the last six in a row, only losing back in 1970 to Anderlecht in the Fairs Cup in Belgium.

Newcastle have suffered just one defeat in their last 13 European games, drawing two and winning the other 10

The Belgians have only registered one victory in their last six European fixtures, losing four and drawing one.

The Magpies have also kept three clean sheet in their last three European fixtures.

Away from home, the Magpies have won just one of their last four games in European competition, drawing two and losing one.

Against English opposition, Brugge are without a win in five games, losing four and drawing one, with their last win coming against Chelsea (1-0) at home in February 1995.

Only Bayer Leverkusen can match Newcastle's total of three clean sheets in three games so far.

C&P'd Opta stats, not ala Tighty

[david3103]

Newcastle seem big to me @ 19/10 with WH, I assume that the fact Colocini and Tiote are serving suspensions in the lge thus will most likely play tonight will be already in the price, so if not for that we'd have been bigger than 9/4 then ? Seems big considering how well we're doing in Europe. Also Brugge just sacked their manager after losing 4 in a row.

This is more a feeler than a tip.

Newcastle have met Belgian opposition on seven previous occasions (including their 1-0 win over Brugge last month) and have won the last six in a row, only losing back in 1970 to Anderlecht in the Fairs Cup in Belgium.

Newcastle have suffered just one defeat in their last 13 European games, drawing two and winning the other 10

The Belgians have only registered one victory in their last six European fixtures, losing four and drawing one.

The Magpies have also kept three clean sheet in their last three European fixtures.

Away from home, the Magpies have won just one of their last four games in European competition, drawing two and losing one.

Against English opposition, Brugge are without a win in five games, losing four and drawing one, with their last win coming against Chelsea (1-0) at home in February 1995.

Only Bayer Leverkusen can match Newcastle's total of three clean sheets in three games so far.

C&P'd Opta stats, not ala Tighty

You missed this snippet from the Europa League site
• Newcastle defender Mike Williamson turns 29 on the day of the game. He has never played in a UEFA game on his birthday before.

Have this, and Liverpool as draws. Not a recommend, just a view.

[Tal]

Just touched 100/30 on betfair momentarily. Laying Bilbao is 1.93.

Lyon only need a draw to qualify and the French press are bullish.

[Tal]

Former Everton, Man City and Wolves striker Michael Branch jailed for 7 years for selling rather large quantities of speed and cocaine.

[TheDazzler]

Liverpool are away to Anzhi tomorrow in the Europa League

Liverpool squad (from): Jones, Wisdom, Carragher, Coates, Robinson, Shelvey, Henderson, Cole, Downing, Yesil, Assaidi, Gulacsi, Ward, Flanagan, Sama, Wilson, Coady, Suso, Morgan.

Those left at home
Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez, Joe Allen, Nuri Sahin, Daniel Agger, Jose Reina, Glen Johnson, Raheem Sterling and Jose Enrique have not travelled as the Reds play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

Anzhi are 4/6


Thoughts?

I don't think this has been commented on.
I think the Pool team news had been factored into the price and 4/6 is pretty short. I was thinking when this was posted that if Anzhi were even money it might be a bet.
Well the the Pool money is coming again and Anzhi can now be backed @ 11/12 with Pinnacle. It may well reach evens by KO. That would be a bet for me.

[aaron1867]

Anzhi 9/10 according to twitter

[ripple11]

I think there is an outstanding opportunity for value in the Europa League tonight

Athletico Bilbao v Olympique Lyonnais

Lyon are 3-1 in various spots

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/athl-bilbao-v-olympique-lyonnais/winner

I've had to research this one as I alighted on it from a value perspective rather than any great knowledge of either team


In their Europa League group

France Lyon    3    3    0    0    8    5    +3    9
Czech Republic Sparta Prague    3    2    0    1    7    4    +3    6
Israel Ironi Kiryat Shmona    3    0    1    3    5    8    −3    1
Spain Athletic Bilbao    3    0    1    2    3    6    −3    1

Bilbao lost in Lyon and Prague and drew to Ironi at home

Lyon are unbeaten

So why are Lyon 3-1?

I check the domestic records

Lyon are a point behind PSG at the top of Ligue 1 http://www.ligue1.com/club/olympique-lyonnais

Bilbao have won 3 of 10 in La Liga http://www.skysports.com/football/league/0,19540,11826,00.html

So why are Lyon 3-1?

Well Lyon need to win the group to avoid the big guns going forward. Although a draw might get them through tonight, a win moves them a long way to winning the group

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/match-commentary/278855/athletic-bilbao-v-lyon

I know Bilbao is a difficult place to go. I needed to look at their downturn in form this season after finishing Europa League and Copa Del Rey runners up last year

I alighted on this.

"Prior to the start of the 2012–13 season, Athletic went through a period of some turmoil. Having impressed many observers around the world with their play in the preceding campaign, all the top players (according to various media rumours) were now being examined by the top clubs in England, Italy and Germany who in some cases could offer higher wages and Champions League football, although qualification for this competition would obviously be the aim for Athletic as well. In particular, striker Fernando Llorente, whose contract was nearing its end, failed to agree a new deal due to his wage demands (allegedly far higher than the norm at the club, but less than some other top strikers in other leagues), and when his position became unstable, it emerged that fellow Spain international Javi Martinez would possibly also be wishing to leave. With the club's financial position relatively healthy and with few, if any, replacements available under their Basque signing policy, Athletic took a rigid stance on the matter, whereby no offers would be accepted by them and any players wishing to leave would have to meet their inflated contract buyout clause. Martinez did so, joining Bayern Munich before the transfer deadline after the player and the German club agreed a deal to finance the €40m release despite Athletic's refusal to co-operate. Llorente, however, failed to secure such a deal and remained an Athletic player at the close of the transfer window, in spite of the bad blood which had developed between him and the club management over the situation. Martinez and Llorente - arguably the most important players in the previous 5 seasons - had been forced to train apart from the other players and faced abuse from fans as they sought a move away, which did little to improve team harmony.

The situation was complicated further when Marcelo Bielsa had a major disagreement with the contractors working on improvements to the Lezama club training ground as he felt they were inadequate, overpriced and behind schedule, thereby undermining his pre-season preparations with the squad. The dispute deteriorated into a physical altercation with the site foreman, followed by Bielsa issuing a statement criticising the work - which the club hierarchy officially distanced themselves from. At one stage in the tense episode the Argentine coach appeared to have left his position, and although the matter was eventually resolved it was not the positive atmosphere the club desired as the start of the season approached. Experienced striker Aritz Aduriz returned (from Valencia CF for a third spell at Athletic, but former youth team forward Ismael López was the only other new signing. Along with the enforced sale of Javi Martinez, aging squad players Koikili, Igor Gabilondo and Aitor Ocio had departed at the start of the summer, and they were followed by winger David Lopez and defender Ustaritz; promising young players Jonas Ramalho and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta seemed set to play a bigger role in their place.

With this backdrop of uncertainty, along with injuries to Aurtenetxte, Amorebieta, Ekiza, Herrera and Llorente, it was perhaps not surprising that Athletic began their season with some poor results. The possession football was not leading to enough goals scored without without the presence of Llorente, albeit Aduriz was proving a capable deputy, and the Bielsa tactic of using players regarded as midfielders in defence to boost the overall technique level of the team was seen to backfire somewhat as opponents created chances with alarming ease. In their first 8 competitive games (4 in La Liga and 4 in the Europa League preliminaries) Athletic scored 21 goals but conceded 18, however did manage to reach the Europa League groups leaving fans optimistic of another Autumn upturn in form."


So, not a happy ship

We have a French team in form against a Spanish team out of form, with dis-harmony leading to undeperformance

and what appears to be a value price

People might argue that all the above is known and factored into prices

In which case why are Lyon 3-1?


In the absence of counter-knowledge, recommend £30 Lyon at 3-1 for value.

Great work Tighty!.........so I log on to Betfair and bring up the Bilbao match screen.
 Meanwhile a random Spanish guy comes into the office to sign up for an English course. He glances at my computer screen, and in broken English says something like " I hope you are not betting money on Bilbao!!"

lol.....good omens....they have been laid.
 

[tikay]

We need some more views on the Bilbao game, & the Liverpool game - in both cases, we have for & against.

I really liked Tighty's analysis, but horsey knows his onions to, so we are between a rock & a hard place now. 

[redarmi]

No view on Bilbao but I would be inclined to bet anything Tighty puts up.  I bet Anzhi this morning at 1.85 and thought I was stealing money.  It appears the market thought differently.

[tikay]

No view on Bilbao but I would be inclined to bet anything Tighty puts up.  I bet Anzhi this morning at 1.85 and thought I was stealing money.  It appears the market thought differently.

[tikay]

I think there is an outstanding opportunity for value in the Europa League tonight

Athletico Bilbao v Olympique Lyonnais

Lyon are 3-1 in various spots

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/athl-bilbao-v-olympique-lyonnais/winner

I've had to research this one as I alighted on it from a value perspective rather than any great knowledge of either team


In their Europa League group

France Lyon    3    3    0    0    8    5    +3    9
Czech Republic Sparta Prague    3    2    0    1    7    4    +3    6
Israel Ironi Kiryat Shmona    3    0    1    3    5    8    −3    1
Spain Athletic Bilbao    3    0    1    2    3    6    −3    1

Bilbao lost in Lyon and Prague and drew to Ironi at home

Lyon are unbeaten

So why are Lyon 3-1?

I check the domestic records

Lyon are a point behind PSG at the top of Ligue 1 http://www.ligue1.com/club/olympique-lyonnais

Bilbao have won 3 of 10 in La Liga http://www.skysports.com/football/league/0,19540,11826,00.html

So why are Lyon 3-1?

Well Lyon need to win the group to avoid the big guns going forward. Although a draw might get them through tonight, a win moves them a long way to winning the group

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/match-commentary/278855/athletic-bilbao-v-lyon

I know Bilbao is a difficult place to go. I needed to look at their downturn in form this season after finishing Europa League and Copa Del Rey runners up last year

I alighted on this.

"Prior to the start of the 2012–13 season, Athletic went through a period of some turmoil. Having impressed many observers around the world with their play in the preceding campaign, all the top players (according to various media rumours) were now being examined by the top clubs in England, Italy and Germany who in some cases could offer higher wages and Champions League football, although qualification for this competition would obviously be the aim for Athletic as well. In particular, striker Fernando Llorente, whose contract was nearing its end, failed to agree a new deal due to his wage demands (allegedly far higher than the norm at the club, but less than some other top strikers in other leagues), and when his position became unstable, it emerged that fellow Spain international Javi Martinez would possibly also be wishing to leave. With the club's financial position relatively healthy and with few, if any, replacements available under their Basque signing policy, Athletic took a rigid stance on the matter, whereby no offers would be accepted by them and any players wishing to leave would have to meet their inflated contract buyout clause. Martinez did so, joining Bayern Munich before the transfer deadline after the player and the German club agreed a deal to finance the €40m release despite Athletic's refusal to co-operate. Llorente, however, failed to secure such a deal and remained an Athletic player at the close of the transfer window, in spite of the bad blood which had developed between him and the club management over the situation. Martinez and Llorente - arguably the most important players in the previous 5 seasons - had been forced to train apart from the other players and faced abuse from fans as they sought a move away, which did little to improve team harmony.

The situation was complicated further when Marcelo Bielsa had a major disagreement with the contractors working on improvements to the Lezama club training ground as he felt they were inadequate, overpriced and behind schedule, thereby undermining his pre-season preparations with the squad. The dispute deteriorated into a physical altercation with the site foreman, followed by Bielsa issuing a statement criticising the work - which the club hierarchy officially distanced themselves from. At one stage in the tense episode the Argentine coach appeared to have left his position, and although the matter was eventually resolved it was not the positive atmosphere the club desired as the start of the season approached. Experienced striker Aritz Aduriz returned (from Valencia CF for a third spell at Athletic, but former youth team forward Ismael López was the only other new signing. Along with the enforced sale of Javi Martinez, aging squad players Koikili, Igor Gabilondo and Aitor Ocio had departed at the start of the summer, and they were followed by winger David Lopez and defender Ustaritz; promising young players Jonas Ramalho and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta seemed set to play a bigger role in their place.

With this backdrop of uncertainty, along with injuries to Aurtenetxte, Amorebieta, Ekiza, Herrera and Llorente, it was perhaps not surprising that Athletic began their season with some poor results. The possession football was not leading to enough goals scored without without the presence of Llorente, albeit Aduriz was proving a capable deputy, and the Bielsa tactic of using players regarded as midfielders in defence to boost the overall technique level of the team was seen to backfire somewhat as opponents created chances with alarming ease. In their first 8 competitive games (4 in La Liga and 4 in the Europa League preliminaries) Athletic scored 21 goals but conceded 18, however did manage to reach the Europa League groups leaving fans optimistic of another Autumn upturn in form."


So, not a happy ship

We have a French team in form against a Spanish team out of form, with dis-harmony leading to undeperformance

and what appears to be a value price

People might argue that all the above is known and factored into prices

In which case why are Lyon 3-1?


In the absence of counter-knowledge, recommend £30 Lyon at 3-1 for value.

Excellent analysis, though not universally approved.

We will go for it.

We have £30 @ 3/1 with BetVictor, Lyonnais to beat Bilbao tonight.

ON

Athletic Bilbao v Olympique Lyonnais
Olympique Lyonnais
(Match Betting)
Odds:  3/1
Stake:  30.00
Possible Return:  120.00

[maldini32]

Seen our team (Liverpool) and Anzhi have got the front two playing from the start. Really like Anzhi

[TheDazzler]

We need some more views on the Bilbao game, & the Liverpool game - in both cases, we have for & against.

I really liked Tighty's analysis, but horsey knows his onions to, so we are between a rock & a hard place now.  

There is no-one against the Pool bet Mr T, as far as I can see. It kicks off in 15 mins.

Edit: the one caveat is that although Anzhi are top of the Russian league, they have to play their European games in Moscow as their stadium doesn't pass regulations. And they are hated in Moscow so the home advantage won't be as strong as it could be. But all their players live in Moscow anyway so that offsets that a little.

[tikay]

We need some more views on the Bilbao game, & the Liverpool game - in both cases, we have for & against.

I really liked Tighty's analysis, but horsey knows his onions to, so we are between a rock & a hard place now. 

There is no-one against the Pool bet Mr T, as far as I can see. It kicks off in 15 mins.

We are going for the other lot, right?

[TheDazzler]

We need some more views on the Bilbao game, & the Liverpool game - in both cases, we have for & against.

I really liked Tighty's analysis, but horsey knows his onions to, so we are between a rock & a hard place now. 

There is no-one against the Pool bet Mr T, as far as I can see. It kicks off in 15 mins.

We are going for the other lot, right?

Yes.
Interesting article on them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20050350