Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The draw for the London Chess Classic has been made, three weeks before the off, which is a break from tradition (normally just the day before).

A few interesting dynamics, as holding the White pieces is an advantage in chess. Carlsen will play arguably more dangerous players as Black (Nakamura, McShane, Kramnik and Adams) but his game is generally less affected by colours than some, as his quieter style often means he wins games in the endgame (when the advantage of the first move has been nullified). He's 5/6 to win.

Kramnik has a decent record in this event and with white against two of the weaker players in the tournament (Jones and Polgar) might do well. 7/2 looks interesting.

I can't see Anand getting close and even 11/2 is short IMO.

Aronian is world number 2 but has a tendency not to seal the deal in big comps. He has good individual performances and will be top 3 in all likelihood but I would be surprised if he were value at 3/1.

The rest will cause some surprises - Adams is a strong player but results against the top ten are far too infrequent; McShane will cause an upset somewhere and his resourceful style will make for compelling games; Jones is a fighting player with some super-sharp variations up his sleeve but on debut at this level and, as horseplayer might say, best watched.

There won't be much if any games from any of those involved between now and the off, so data will be limited.

Carlsen's first three games are tough on paper (McShane, Aronian and Kramnik, two as Black), but the tourney will be won by winning games, rather than surviving. The points structure is the football model of 3/1/0 so Anand who draws a lot is at a significant disadvantage to Aronian and Nakamura who have wins and losses against their name in most comps and to Carlsen who has a never say die attitude in seemingly drawn positions and ekes out extra wins.

Does Fred like 5/6 or do we wait and hope other markets touch even money or beyond? My suspicion is the latter might be better, although if not much will be wagered, it only takes a decent bet on Magnus for hopes of nice odds to fade.

Only Ladbrokes is offering a market at present that I can see.

Thanks Tal. I'd really like that we had good reason to follow this, & bring Chess across to Fred.

Please keep an eye out & see if any other markets develop, or other firms make a book.

For now, just to stake a claim on the event, we vhave £30 @ 5/6, (Ladbrokes), Carlsen to win the London Chess Championships.


ON


Selection5/6 - Magnus Carlsen

Event2012 London Chess Classic London Chess Classic

MarketTournament winner
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Magnus Carlsen
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential Return: £55.00
Time: 10/11/12 00:03
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000175

[Snowball]

Bad news from Brisbane, JP Duminy is out the Test and the Saffers are down to 10 Men, the Weather has also arrived, pretty much non stop Rain from the close of play last night and they don't seem confident of much play today.
South Africa now 11/4 and drifting...

[Snowball]

Tikay if you are around at Midday tomorrow then Hills are doing their priority price, they are sponsoring the Grand Slam of Darts which starts tomorrow evening and I have a feeling they are going to offer Taylor to win the tournament at a tasty price although it will be £10 max bet.

[Tal]

Great stuff, Tikay!

For those who don't follow the Chess Thread, this is who Fred is funking for:



He was even a Grandmaster despite looking like he would rather be in a Wacky Warehouse.

[TheDazzler]

Wow, he's a dreamboat. Ummm, if you're that way inclined.
I believe he's mentored by Kasparov.
Question for you Tal on Kasparov.
I thought I remember hearing that Kasparov, when at his peak, was asked if he would beat God in a chess match. His reply, 'well if I was playing white I would expect at least a draw'.
But I just googled it and I can't find any mention of it. It would be such a great quote, it SHOULD be true but did I just imagine it?

[Tal]

Wow, he's a dreamboat. Ummm, if you're that way inclined.
I believe he's mentored by Kasparov.
Question for you Tal on Kasparov.
I thought I remember hearing that Kasparov, when at his peak, was asked if he would beat God in a chess match. His reply, 'well if I was playing white I would expect at least a draw'.
But I just googled it and I can't find any mention of it. It would be such a great quote, it SHOULD be true but did I just imagine it?

Carlsen was mentored by Kasparov for about a year in about 2010. The intention was to get him to World Number 1 and they achieved that on schedule.

Kasparov then went on to mentor the top American player Hikaru Nakamura but that ended rather less successfully after a rather bitter fallout.

As for your quote, it is the sort of thing he would say. He's fully aware of his brilliance and moreover he's fully aware of how to court publicity.

However, the man who said he could play God to a draw as White was Bobby Fischer.

[bobby1]

quite amazing Tony. Beware the ill golfer.

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/tournaments/r045/11/09/wacker-friday-beljan/index.html

[tikay]

Saturday Squeeze


We had Marlyand Terrapins (+10.5) to beat Kentucky Wildcats.

[tikay]

Kentucky....................

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Maryland.......

[Biddy 62]

I know its generally way to the poorhouse backing 7/2 favourites in 23 runner handicaps but Henry Cecils First Mohican looks a worthy fav. Get the lot on.

[tikay]

I know its generally way to the poorhouse backing 7/2 favourites in 23 runner handicaps but Henry Cecils First Mohican looks a worthy fav. Get the lot on.

!

Thanks Biddy.

I'll need some views on that, but if the gee gee experts give us the nod, we'll have a small interest.

[Bazzaboy]

Tikay if you are around at Midday tomorrow then Hills are doing their priority price, they are sponsoring the Grand Slam of Darts which starts tomorrow evening and I have a feeling they are going to offer Taylor to win the tournament at a tasty price although it will be £10 max bet.

Do you have a view on Thornton v Hankey?  Thornton's price looks big to me.

[tikay]

quite amazing Tony. Beware the ill golfer.

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/tournaments/r045/11/09/wacker-friday-beljan/index.html

I'm not sure I enjoyed watching that Phil, it's not nice to watch someone who is clearly suffering.

There must be a case whereby they refuse to allow him to play if he really is that unwell. It's not like a sportsman battling to overcome a physical injury - this seems to be a genuine illness, or condition.

Astonishing round, considered.

I hope he gets treatment, & recovers fully. 

[tikay]

Great stuff, Tikay!

For those who don't follow the Chess Thread, this is who Fred is funking for:



He was even a Grandmaster despite looking like he would rather be in a Wacky Warehouse.

Excellent. It's only a small interest at present (possibly, we may invest more when/if the market forms properly), but we'll get great value, as I know you'll keep us updated with some beautifully crafted reports. At £30, it's a bargain.