Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

Seem to remember the Turner prize rarely gets awarded to the favourite. I'd bet Luke Fowler, the outsider, he's from Scotland, most recent winners have come from Glasgow.

[Tal]

Plenty of disharmony in the Chelsea dressing room, plenty of egos and a goal down. I'd say your booking bet is still alive, if hindered by a tickly cough.

"posh pap" > "Posh pap" unless it is a Barry Fry halftime team talk of old.

[hector62]

Bookings fine. No more goals and watch the carnage in the last 15  mins.

[tikay]

Carlisle pulled one back v Donny, Bournemouth now all square with Stevenage.

Celtic now one down.

Two yellows in the Juve Chelsea affair.

We need a bit of luck now.

[tikay]

Doncaster and Tighty rescued us from a blank, and we end up with a loss of less than a tenner.

Could have been far far worse.

[tikay]

Nimble finger alert.

Rumour has it there may be a potential Max incoming shortly.

[Bad Beat]

 I'd like to put up a maximum bet. I say that because I've had a pretty big bet and I think it's important that the thread has a decent gap between the size of bets that people half fancy often when we can see that the maximum value that there is will be two or three percent and the size of the bets we have when we really KNOW we are getting seven or eight percent.

 Obviously football has been good to the thread and I personally subscribe to a scatter-gun approach to punting, but we must understand that a lot of times when we are taking 11/10 about footy bets, even if they are wrong, they are never really going to be wrong by more than a four or five percent. It's REALLY hard to find 11/10 shots in footy that should be 4/6. It may be impossible.

 Luckily these chances exist quite often in other sports.

 My maximum bet is a racing bet. I would not say I am the world's expert at betting on horses but I have done well because of my knowledge of betting, more than my knowledge of horses. I think this one ticks both boxes.

 The bet is an ante-post bet in the Betfair Chase which is the 3.05 at Haydock on Saturday. Today Imperial Commander was ruled out of this race with an injury. That leaves us currently with eight runners.

[The Camel]

I'd like to put up a maximum bet. I say that because I've had a pretty big bet and I think it's important that the thread has a decent gap between the size of bets that people half fancy often when we can see that the maximum value that there is will be two or three percent and the size of the bets we have when we really KNOW we are getting seven or eight percent.

 Obviously football has been good to the thread and I personally subscribe to a scatter-gun approach to punting, but we must understand that a lot of times when we are taking 11/10 about footy bets, even if they are wrong, they are never really going to be wrong by more than a four or five percent. It's REALLY hard to find 11/10 shots in footy that should be 4/6. It may be impossible.

 Luckily these chances exist quite often in other sports.

 My maximum bet is a racing bet. I would not say I am the world's expert at betting on horses but I have done well because of my knowledge of betting, more than my knowledge of horses. I think this one ticks both boxes.

 The bet is an ante-post bet in the Betfair Chase which is the 3.05 at Haydock on Saturday. Today Imperial Commander was ruled out of this race with an injury. That leaves us currently with eight runners.

slowroll

[bobby1]

SC ew?

[Bad Beat]

 When bookmakers bet ante-post on big horseraces they really claim to just do it for publicity. They hope to get the "nannies" (Nanny Goats) in the paper and they don't want to lay bets.

 The prices that we take on these bets are fixed at the time we bet as are the place terms. This can give us a good edge, especially when the weather is as it is.

 The Betfair Chase is a race at Haydock, a track that can be susceptible to very heavy going. It is a race for future Grand National and Gold Cup horses - the really top chasers. It is a race that is worth a lot of money so some horses will have targeted it, but it comes early in the season, meaning that it's hard for a Grand National horse to be ready for this AND to do well in the National.

 Let's look at the runners:

 Long Run - Is the favourite. It won the Gold Cup in 2010 and last year it's possible it regressed. It's also possible that in 2010 it beat some horses that were getting older and it was not the best ever Gold Cup. It's ridden by the son of it's owner, a successful businessman and a decent amateur jockey, but possibly this is a reason it will never be a good bet at short prices. Mr SWC has struggled to keep the horse balanced, present it at a fence and ride a strong finish at times. I think he is pretty good but he isn't Barry Gerraghty.

 The horse was beaten by The Giant Bolster (who was a massive price) in the Gold Cup in 2011. It isn't getting younger and it will be trained for the Gold Cup.

[Tal]

Seem to remember the Turner prize rarely gets awarded to the favourite. I'd bet Luke Fowler, the outsider, he's from Scotland, most recent winners have come from Glasgow.

Not sure of the panel but the critics are generally content that Fowler is deserved outsider. The divisions are largely elsewhere.

Traditional media don't tend to do well in the Turner Prize so we now have two good reasons to lay the fav. Everyone likes it and if ever there were are a reason Noble can't win the Turner Prize, it is that.

I would be looking at Elizabeth Price strongly. Not only is she a hugely respected artist, this seems to be a giant stride forward from her previous work, with her combination of words and images in devastating tandem. It took over a year to make, which is a feature of her pieces.

Having spent the evening going through the opinions, that's the one I'd plump for.

[Bad Beat]

 Silviniaco Conti has already run this season. It won the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby in impressive style. It is an improver trained by Paul Nicholls. It deserves to be 5/2 or maybe a fair bit shorter. The question mark might be whether it will run well at this trip on soft or heavy ground. It may not be 1/50 to actually run in this race. It might be too good to risk.

 Wayward Prince finished 2nd in the Charlie Hall and seems solid enough but it may not be really good enough. Midnight Chase is a lovely horse but I think it will go to Cheltenham in a couple of weeks as it doesn't like soft ground and the trainer prefers that race. Carrington Brook may be a slightful doubtful stayer but they say they are training it for the Welsh National. It shouldn't be at it's peak here.

 Weird Al is being trained for the Grand National and is very unlikely to be ready to win this. I personally think the McCain stable is out of form.

 Tidal Bay is obvioulsy a raging dodgepot that has cost me a fortune. I've laid it every time it has won. I will be against it here. The presence of a second Nicholls runner makes it more likely that SC may not run which would be good for our bet.

 

[Bad Beat]

 That leaves us with The Giant Bolster. This horse finished 2nd in last years Gold Cup where it beat Long Run into 3rd. Long Run was 7/4 and TGB was 50/1. Currently they are 5/4 and 6/1 for Saturday.

 David Bridgewater, it's trainer, was quoted today:
 
"He’ll be better this season than he was last. He is still only a baby and the Gold Cup was only his eighth completed chase."

 He has been aiming the horse at this race for a while and it is then intended to aim for the King George.

 The Giant Bolster is a great each-way bet at 5/1 with 1/5th 1,2,3. Corals are currently offering 13/2 with these place terms and Ladbrokes and Betfred have 6/1 with the same place terms. I have had a pretty big bet and would happily have done that at 4/1.

 I think we have a great chance that this race cuts up to 5 or 6 runners and we are getting 13/10 a place 1,2,3. On the day that could look amazing.

 I like taking on Long Run and I personally think we could end up being on the better horse here when looked at in a few months time.

 They should offer ew 1st 2 here and we must punish them for being lazy and not caring because they are just quoting the race out of habit and for publicity.
 

[Bad Beat]

 The downside of the bet is that it is ante-post. Hosres get injured and it could be withdrawn or they may switch to the Henessey in a few weeks. I personally think there is more chance of the opponents being diverted. This horse has had this as his target for a while.

 It could fall. It's a chase and the bookies could be lucky that having offered an overbroke place book only two finish and therefore place. Personally I think they won't go too fast and although this horse did hit a few fences in it's younger days I like the jumping.

 We need to act now. Imperial Commander was pulled out with an injury tody and many books went 14 1,2. The ones who stuck with 1,2,3 were just being careless and lazy. They may realise tomorrow.

 At 10am on Thursday they'll be a declaration and Midnight Chase and possibly others will pull out then. This could be the last chance to get 1,2,3.

 Anyone have arguments against before I have some more on?

[TightEnd]

Loving the five post rationale maximum bet

Something to aspire to!

(p.s Lower leagues in England definitely have mispriced football bets, there was a great one tonight at 9/5 that was nearer 5/4 in truth)