Tips for Tikay

[edgascoigne]

Thanks Ed.

I almost understood every word of that.

I'm also available for Weddings and Bat Mitzvahs.

[hector62]

Every week I look at the thread on The Hendon Mob entitled " Sports Betting ". Since November 3rd there have been a total of 9 posts. I think  a comparison between this thread and that one  answers a question posed on another board here entitled " Is this forum dying ? "

Now time to go and see another Fred about a horse.

[Tal]

With 2 tests left on what will likely be flat(ter) pitches, Pujara isn't a 1/12 shot, so shouldn't we be investing what we can on a wrong price?

what price do you think he is?

what price is he if he fails in the next test and a n other scores a 100?

Have I misunderstood? I thought that was the point you were making?

There is plenty of opportunity for someone else to get close to Pujara's score (he will be the most scrutinised by England's analysts for the next test as we need to get him out)

Aren't we supposed to betting where we think the market isn't in line with our views on the price?

[TightEnd]

With 2 tests left on what will likely be flat(ter) pitches, Pujara isn't a 1/12 shot, so shouldn't we be investing what we can on a wrong price?

what price do you think he is?

what price is he if he fails in the next test and a n other scores a 100?

Have I misunderstood? I thought that was the point you were making?

There is plenty of opportunity for someone else to get close to Pujara's score (he will be the most scrutinised by England's analysts for the next test as we need to get him out)

Aren't we supposed to betting where we think the market isn't in line with our views on the price?

I might be misunderstanding you, ie we agree

The point I am making is as likely to go to 1/5 say than 1/25, thus we have taken all the value from the bet and should a) green and b) consider going short


Ed Gascoigne's lay is far more elegant than mine and covers the protection, but mine reverses engines to go shorter.

[Tal]

With 2 tests left on what will likely be flat(ter) pitches, Pujara isn't a 1/12 shot, so shouldn't we be investing what we can on a wrong price?

what price do you think he is?

what price is he if he fails in the next test and a n other scores a 100?

Have I misunderstood? I thought that was the point you were making?

There is plenty of opportunity for someone else to get close to Pujara's score (he will be the most scrutinised by England's analysts for the next test as we need to get him out)

Aren't we supposed to betting where we think the market isn't in line with our views on the price?

I might be misunderstanding you, ie we agree

The point I am making is as likely to go to 1/5 say than 1/25, thus we have taken all the value from the bet and should a) green and b) consider going short


Ed Gascoigne's lay is far more elegant than mine and covers the protection, but mine reverses engines to go shorter.

I should have just abbreviated to "+1" and annoyed everyone

[tikay]

Lol, fold pre.

[Chompy]

Would Fred members be interested in owning a horse for next Flat season? If we could get enough interested it'd be workable I think.

Was hoping to get a list of around ten interested parties - to keep the price sensible - before looking into it further.

So far we have...

Myself
Karabiner
Redarmi
Bigadz
Tal
Bobby
Camel
Ant

[TightEnd]

The SPOTY 12 person shortlist is announced at 7pm on BBC1 The One Show

Add another five pages to the thread...


What is our current position, net?

[BigAdz]

The Adzy/Camel horse (Baby Shine, EW)......




http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/kempton/14:05/winner

Is this a "dirty" EW thingie?

My enthusiasm is not tempered for the horse, but the bet needs reviewing as Alasi taken out. No longer the EW steal I thought.
TBH I am still on large regardless, but from a prudence point of view the value to nothing has been stolen.

[tikay]

After the reminder from Keith earlier, thought I would post this.

Been waiting for this mare to be stepped up to 3m for quite some time. The race that sticks in the mind was over 2.4 at Southwell with the race at her mercy, was chopped off two out. She then regrouped and made ground hand over fist to almost catch a very well thought of horse of Jonjo's, Its a Gimme. She then beat another well thought of horse at Leicester staying on strongly again, giving all the signs of being a thorough stayer. Last year didn't quite go according to plan, but still finished with a respectable 3rd to Simonsig at Aintree, before looking OTT at Punchestown. This year started at Wetherby over, to my mind a trip too short now, however she traveled like the winner for much of the race, but looked like she needed it, and one of today's opposition, Alasi beat her.
She has excellent form right handed 2/4 and operates well on the ground, and to me looks an excellent each way bet to nothing now she looks to step up in trip.
Recommend £10 ew  Baby Shine 2.05 Kempton

Thanks Adz.

OK, here we go.

£10 EW @ 15/2, BetVictor, Baby Shine, 2.05 Kempton.

The bet is owned by you, as I don't think His Camel-Ness Posted it on here.


ON


Kempton 14:05
BABY SHINE (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  15/2
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  110.00

[Tal]

Been tried before, hasn't it, Chompy?

Suspect I'm unlikely to be one of five or six tbh. If it were a bigger group and the numbers/exposure were better spread, maybe.

[tikay]

The Adzy/Camel horse (Baby Shine, EW)......




http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/kempton/14:05/winner

Is this a "dirty" EW thingie?

My enthusiasm is not tempered for the horse, but the bet needs reviewing as Alasi taken out. No longer the EW steal I thought.
TBH I am still on large regardless, but from a prudence point of view the value to nothing has been stolen.

FML.

Timing is a thing of beauty. Bad timing, not so much.......

Never mind, it is done now.

I'm blaming hector, for reminding me.

[tikay]

The SPOTY 12 person shortlist is announced at 7pm on BBC1 The One Show

Add another five pages to the thread...


What is our current position, net?

Not sure of the "net" Rich, as we did some laying, I think we laid both Ennis & Wiggo.

With the incredible benefit of hindsight, some of these look rather bizarre.

Dai Greene......!

I fancy that netto, as (Ruud Gullit might say back in the day), we will be doing our dough.

ALL our SPOTY investments are included in the November Tab on the Spready.


 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[BigAdz]

The Adzy/Camel horse (Baby Shine, EW)......




http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/kempton/14:05/winner

Is this a "dirty" EW thingie?

My enthusiasm is not tempered for the horse, but the bet needs reviewing as Alasi taken out. No longer the EW steal I thought.
TBH I am still on large regardless, but from a prudence point of view the value to nothing has been stolen.

FML.

Timing is a thing of beauty. Bad timing, not so much.......

Never mind, it is done now.

I'm blaming hector, for reminding me.

Sorry bout the timing Tikay. Had just been on a stroll to local independent who sometimes offer me the 1-3 in 7 horse races, but refused on this occasion. Timing terrible, but still fancied and one of main dangers out the way, so GL us.

[Tal]

I can beat Dai Greene. I backed David Beckham before the GB squad was announced (envisaging him playing in the football, being involved in the ceremony and possibly coming back to England after the MLS)