Tips for Tikay

[Jamier-Host]

Suggest £25 Worcester @ 7/5 Paddy Power and £5 the draw @ 16-1.

Sportingbet are 7/4 the win and BetFred 20/1 the draw.  7/4 is way out vs everyone else.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

It will be interesting to see if Pakistan can make it 4 in a row today in the 6's bashing contest v India and endorse my size theory. However I am going to give you a rugby bet for tonight instead.

Sale v Worcester has the potential to be one of the worst games ever played. A bad team playing badly against an average team playing averagely, on a wet pitch. I make this as close to a 50/50 call as possible, and skybet even have no try scorer as 6-1 favourites in that market. I am going to plump for Worcester to win as they have a fly half better suited to playing field position and the better goal kicker. We also get odds against for them but we should back the draw in this one

Suggest £25 Worcester @ 7/5 Paddy Power and £5 the draw @ 16-1.

Morning hector.

Mr Jamier-Host kindly pointed out better prices, so we have gone that route.

I have also taken the libertty of increasing your suggestion from £25 to £28, as a), we have a much better price, & b) we like nice symmetrical numbers that even doddery old sods can work out easily.

We have £28 @ 7/4, Sporting Bet, Worcester, & £5 @ 20/1 (BetFred) the Draw.

ON


Bet Type: Single
Sale v Worcester Match Prices
Worcester
7/4
Rugby Possible Payout 77.00 GBP
1 bet @
28.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 28.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 77.00 GBP

______


Sale Sharks v Worcester
80 Minute Betting
 Draw 20/1 
Total stake £ 5.00
Estimated return £ 105.00

Full stake £ 5.00
Full estimated return £ 105.00

[BigAdz]

bit unfair on tidal bay

since he has been with a trainer he has been pretty consistent and considering he was trained by howard johnson for most of his career it is no surprise he was quirky

it is hard to forget how quirky he was and he certainly still has an awkward late challenge but conditions look ideal to me today

ground distance and a probable good pace to chase down

ground is a worry for sdc and trip a ? for flemenstar


Pretty much a complete plus one.

Whoever wins today you will find reasons to look back and say the price looked big but tbh the prices as they are look pretty much as they should. I would be tempted by one of those double bets on SDC to win today and Gold Cup if I could get over 12-1.
For today I would probably back TB ew as you can see him storming up that long run in

Morning Adz,

I assume you meant "TD ew"?

As there seems a fair degree of interest in this race (Lexus Chase), here is the market.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/leopardstown/15:00/winner

Morning TK

TB =Tidal Bay.

As Chairman of the Tidal Bay Fan Club I tend to view his chances through wonderful Dame Edna Rose tinted Specs, so dont place too much faith in my selection.

This is one Grade 1 Chase I think is worth a watching brief, as it will tie the English and Irish form together.

FWIW, and I will probably lose all credibility, I think the King George was a very poor renewal, and Long Run did well despite his jockeys efforts. He will remain a safe choice for the GC, but I suspect there will be a couple to beat him again.

SDC has impressive Cheltenham credentials and is in the right hands. If you can ignore TBs age, his profile now is of an improving animal, but Bobs Worth looks bomb proof.

As a real skinner, I have long been a fan of a Scottish horse, Bold Sir Brian, and hold a fancy ticket with 700-1 on it. He needs to produce a performance in the Argento at Cheltenham in New Year to be entered this year, but he is defo a horse for the future.

I covered why I thought Captain Chris was underrated before, so even if it was a bad renewal, Long Run still beat all the bad horses well.  So think we'll just have to agree to differ on this.  

Kauto Star was the best 3 miler we have had since the era of Arkle.  If you look at the period between Arkle and Kauto, Long Run would be better than at least 75% of Gold Cup winners.

Right now we have Long Run and a group of horses that are very promising.  My theory is that if they fulfill there promise they are only hoimg yo be as good as Long Run, and it is unlikely any of them are as good as Kauto.  

So we have a Gold Cup that will include Long Run and 4 or 5 who could be as good as him if they fulfill there potential.  I'd rather have the horse that is already as good as Long Run.  It just seems enormously unlikely that we will get 4 or 5 as good as Long Run in one Gold Cup, and the likelihood is that most of the pretenders just won't get there.  

Despite this it looks like a cracking race right now and I am already looking forward to it.

You can make a fair case that Long Run isn't at his best round Cheltenham and I'd obviously prefer a better jockey.  

But 7/1.

Not disagreeing with the thought process Doobs, and agree at 7-1 he is an ew bet to nothing, but my big hobby horse is the quality of some of the jocks we have having some responsibilities beyond their talent at the moment. If LR had a Mccoy/Walsh/Maguire on him, I expect his portfolio would be up there with the best of all time. But things are what they are, and SWC has done a fair job. But lets be honest you only have to look at the final fence on Boxing Day to see that the horse's natural ability won that race, not jockeyship, and I fear the same at Chelts in March. I know the horse has the talent to be 5-2 fav right now, but 7-1 factors in the amateur on top.

By close of play today it may look great value, but I suspect something will chuck in a performance to shake up the market, possibly in your favour, granted.

[TightEnd]

Burton v Southend League 2 tomorrow

Over 3 goals Bet365 9/4

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/burton-v-southend/total-goals


Burton have three strikers/midfielders with a combined 26 goals, Zola, Billy Kee and Maghoma.

They average over 2 goals every home game over 12 games this season

I have had them in goals galore coupons most weeks as they play One of the three goalscorers in midfield, with two wingers and generally play open at home. This was evident to me when I saw their playing pattern in a pre-season match and then at Leicester in the League Cup. They go for it.

Southend have Rastafish's son and Assombalonga with 26 goals combined

They average over 2 goals away from home over 12 away games this season


The Bet365 price is 9/4 over 3 goals when all other market setters only offer that price for over 4 goals...

I have had a small interest in the above but it would depend (other opinions apart) whether the thread restriction at Bet365 could get on..

[Jamier-Host]

Burton v Southend League 2 tomorrow

Over 3 goals Bet365 9/4

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/burton-v-southend/total-goals


Burton have three strikers/midfielders with a combined 26 goals, Zola, Billy Kee and Maghoma.

They average over 2 goals every home game over 12 games this season

I have had them in goals galore coupons most weeks as they play One of the three goalscorers in midfield, with two wingers and generally play open at home. This was evident to me when I saw their playing pattern in a pre-season match and then at Leicester in the League Cup. They go for it.

Southend have Rastafish's son and Assombalonga with 26 goals combined

They average over 2 goals away from home over 12 away games this season


The Bet365 price is 9/4 over 3 goals when all other market setters only offer that price for over 4 goals...

I have had a small interest in the above but it would depend (other opinions apart) whether the thread restriction at Bet365 could get on..

That is just a quirk of Oddschecker - all those prices are for the same thing, just some of them call it "Over 3" and some call it "4+". They name it weirdly in that grid but they all refer to the same thing.

Doesn't mean it isn't a good bet, just not massively out of line.

[tikay]

Burton v Southend League 2 tomorrow

Over 3 goals Bet365 9/4

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/burton-v-southend/total-goals


Burton have three strikers/midfielders with a combined 26 goals, Zola, Billy Kee and Maghoma.

They average over 2 goals every home game over 12 games this season

I have had them in goals galore coupons most weeks as they play One of the three goalscorers in midfield, with two wingers and generally play open at home. This was evident to me when I saw their playing pattern in a pre-season match and then at Leicester in the League Cup. They go for it.

Southend have Rastafish's son and Assombalonga with 26 goals combined

They average over 2 goals away from home over 12 away games this season


The Bet365 price is 9/4 over 3 goals when all other market setters only offer that price for over 4 goals...

I have had a small interest in the above but it would depend (other opinions apart) whether the thread restriction at Bet365 could get on..

J-H's point is correct, & noted, but as it happened, Bet365 allowed me £20 @ 9/4, so we have that.

£20 @ 9/4, Bet365, OVER 3 goals, Burton v Son of Rastafish.

ON

Over 3 goals    Burton Albion v Southend
Number of Goals in Match  29/12/2012  9/4  None  To Run
Stake 20.00 To Return  65.00   

[tikay]

I've mentioned this before but Nathan Chalobah continues to be underestimated by the bookies in the goalscorer markets for Watford.  There is a perception out there that he is a defender but I must stress he plays in the Yaya Toure role in EVERY game for the hornets sitting in front of the 3 central defenders, gets numerous shots away and has 2 goals so far from 16 games.  The first batch of those games were when we were reallly struggling, so I think this ratio will improve as the season goes on.  He is far more likely to score than Hogg, Casetti and Pudil imo.

Against Brighton he is 28-1 for first goal and 10-1 to score any time with B365.  If you backed at these odds everytime I can't see how you couldn't make money from the games I have seen this year.  Since this game is on TV on Saturday teatime I suggest we have a dabble.

If I was a bookie I'd price him 14-1 for first goal and 6-1 anytime FWIW.

Any other informed views on this, please?

[TightEnd]

The sole non-teeny Indian Yuvraj's seven sixes will help today, then...

No views on Watford man I am afraid, haven't seen him to comment. Looks like a sporting banzai!

[Simon Galloway]

Also can't wait for the Lexus today, although it is a race I could watch for pleasure I ofc will be getting involved.  Hopefully some pointers today towards unravelling Chelts, will be interesting to see if Flemenstar gets the trip (I'm a flemenstar fan) and if so, what that does to the Ante-post markets for the RyanAir Chase and the Gold Cup.  I'd love it if Flemenstar trotted up and went for the Ryanair, not just because the 7/1 ticket for that would be tidy, but it would also remove the confusion between that and Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup.  I can see myself getting in pretty deeply on it this year...

[horseplayer]

I've mentioned this before but Nathan Chalobah continues to be underestimated by the bookies in the goalscorer markets for Watford.  There is a perception out there that he is a defender but I must stress he plays in the Yaya Toure role in EVERY game for the hornets sitting in front of the 3 central defenders, gets numerous shots away and has 2 goals so far from 16 games.  The first batch of those games were when we were reallly struggling, so I think this ratio will improve as the season goes on.  He is far more likely to score than Hogg, Casetti and Pudil imo.

Against Brighton he is 28-1 for first goal and 10-1 to score any time with B365.  If you backed at these odds everytime I can't see how you couldn't make money from the games I have seen this year.  Since this game is on TV on Saturday teatime I suggest we have a dabble.

If I was a bookie I'd price him 14-1 for first goal and 6-1 anytime FWIW.

Any other informed views on this, please?

have not seen him enough

however the stats on watford do not suggest he has had a particularly high number of shots or anything (for his position)

"and has 2 goals so far from 16 games"

not sure how that makes 10-1 that attractive? if as it seems he is a deep lying defensive midfielder

if you are going to back it i personally would wait for betfair as it is televised i am guessing 35 might be up there for a small amount

[DungBeetle]

"not sure how that makes 10-1 that attractive? if as it seems he is a deep lying defensive midfielder"

Not necessarily the goals per game that makes me recommend the bet, but more the games I have seen he has had a lot of attempts on goal (I've seen the games v Wolves, Peterboro, Forest and Hull).  He is indeed a holding midfielder but pops up on the edge of the box a lot.

I think he is priced as a defender and he doesn't play that position which makes it value.

[tikay]

Also can't wait for the Lexus today, although it is a race I could watch for pleasure I ofc will be getting involved.  Hopefully some pointers today towards unravelling Chelts, will be interesting to see if Flemenstar gets the trip (I'm a flemenstar fan) and if so, what that does to the Ante-post markets for the RyanAir Chase and the Gold Cup.  I'd love it if Flemenstar trotted up and went for the Ryanair, not just because the 7/1 ticket for that would be tidy, but it would also remove the confusion between that and Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup.  I can see myself getting in pretty deeply on it this year...

Yet another interesting view on today's Lexus.

Good luck Simon, hope that 7/1 voucher proves a winner.

[Doobs]

Also can't wait for the Lexus today, although it is a race I could watch for pleasure I ofc will be getting involved.  Hopefully some pointers today towards unravelling Chelts, will be interesting to see if Flemenstar gets the trip (I'm a flemenstar fan) and if so, what that does to the Ante-post markets for the RyanAir Chase and the Gold Cup.  I'd love it if Flemenstar trotted up and went for the Ryanair, not just because the 7/1 ticket for that would be tidy, but it would also remove the confusion between that and Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup.  I can see myself getting in pretty deeply on it this year...

I have Flemenstar at the same price for the Gold Cup, but prefer the Long Run bet right now.  So Flemenstar outstaying them all would be ideal for me.

Had a real banzai on Pandorama today.  He was the Sir Des Champs/Flemenstar of a couple of years ago, but there seems to be an immense struggle to get him to the track.  Not one for the thread though as seeing him win this needs a biblical leap of faith.

[tikay]

The sole non-teeny Indian Yuvraj's seven sixes will help today, then...

No views on Watford man I am afraid, haven't seen him to comment. Looks like a sporting banzai!

Wow, looks like your Sixes bet ought to coast home Rich.

The site below is excellent for Live Updated Cricket scores.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-pakistan-2012/engine/match/589307.html
 

[horseplayer]

"not sure how that makes 10-1 that attractive? if as it seems he is a deep lying defensive midfielder"

Not necessarily the goals per game that makes me recommend the bet, but more the games I have seen he has had a lot of attempts on goal (I've seen the games v Wolves, Peterboro, Forest and Hull).  He is indeed a holding midfielder but pops up on the edge of the box a lot.

I think he is priced as a defender and he doesn't play that position which makes it value.

Nathaniel Chalobah 12   8   2   

Daniel Pudil 7   13

Marco Cassetti 2   8   1

Jonathan Hogg 3   8   0

that is shots on target, then off target and then hit woodwork this season