Tips for Tikay

[smashedagain]

Fedderer 5/1 to win the Aussie open.

Back him ew 1/2 the odds with paddy power or boyles. Nadals pulled out and they havent adjusted their market yet.

He will be in the opposite side of the draw to Djokovic and Murray so 5/2 to make the final seems pretty good.

Rec £50 ew at 5/1 with paadys or boyles.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/tennis/mens-australian-open?ev_oc_grp_ids=3309

Ok, I will ask the stupid question.  Why won't he face Murray?

seeds 1 and 3 are in separate sides of the draw to 2 and 4.

so djokovic and murray in same side of the draw, fedderer would have had to face nadal had he not pulled out.

Are we sure that's right, just that I alway though 1 played 4 and 2 played 3 in semis of any seeding system - surely Djok seeded one and faces Del Potro in semi with Fed v Murray

I thought the OP just didn't seem correct, as why would the number 2 seed always get a better draw than 1.  Simple deduction shows that smashed again is unlikely to be right either.

I have found an explanation here that seems plausible.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090319153036AAkg8Jp

But a better proof may be that it isn't necessarily 2 vs 4 is that last year it was 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.

The draw hasn't been made yet, but I think it seems safe to assume it is 50/50 he will face Murray.

It seems surprisingly difficult to google this, or I am just a buffoon with google tonight.

Ditto, I spent a good while on google, & ended up with the same link as you.

The Australian Open Website does not help at all.

just looked at last years wimbeldon . Novak (1) and roger (3) were in the top half of the draw and Rafa (2) and Andy (4) the bottom half and Rafa suffered an early exit. Knew I was wrong all along

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0845, Saturday December 29th         

LOSS on Month = £252.94

Unsettled Bets  - £1,051.00



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=15

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 0850, Saturday December 29th


We lost £33 yesterday.

Two (related) bets completed, nada zero zilch.

We invested a lot of money down the line, & now have over £1,000 forward invested.

These bets vary from football, to horse racing, NFL, Tennis  & DoI. Locations included Australia, USA, & Bristol.

We had enormous chatterage on the Lexus Chase, a race Fred did not have a penny invested in, followed by some head-scratching at to the draw in the Australian Open Tennis, eventually resolved by MereUmpire. The amazing thing about this thread is despite widely contrasting views, there was no bad blood or Advent Calendar style spoilage. 

We do not have much direct action yet today, only Burton v Southend OVER 3 goals, & Tommy Someone to score for Mighty Posh v Bristol City. Indirectly, though, we now have positions on Promotion or Relegation in most of the leagues.

Stumpy, for whom we hold a 50/1 voucher, plays today in the PDC.

[tikay]

Tony Greig passed away overnight after a short battle with cancer.

What a character, always fun to watch as a player, then became very politically controversial in cricket, eventually moved to Australia & became a much respected commentator & respected figure.

South African by birth, but with Scottish lineage, he Captained Sussex, then England.

He then hooked up with Kerry Packer to help form World Series Cricket, which, for better or worse, started the modern trend for commercial cricket. He certainly helped change the face of Cricket.

He worked for a chap called Kerry Packer in World Series Cricket, Kerry was right up there with Rupert Murdoch in the populularity stakes, but though many of us do not like what Kerry did, it undoubtedly changed cricket beyond recognition. I don't know this as a fact, but coloured shirts & that sort of nonsense was probably a by-product of WSC.

As a cricketer, he was absolutely thrilling to watch, be it as a batter, bowler, or fielder.

Enormously powerful as a batsman, I can still picture him square chopping a 6 off a quickie at Lords.


RIP Tony.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

RIP

A very innovative thinker about cricket, and was a leading light under Packer in making the game far more professional, and of course T20, coloured clothing etc wouldn't be here without him, for better or worse

If anyone has the time, here's a link to his 2012 Cowdrey lecture http://www.espncricinfo.com/mcc/content/story/570147.html

One thing not generally known is he fell n love with Sri Lanka when touring there and, one eye as ever on the financial side of things, saw its potential and became one of Sri Lanka's biggest land owners and made fortunes as it transformed to a tourist economy from its very backward past post de-colonisation

[tikay]

Thanks for that link Rich, I shall watch that later.

I never knew that Sri Lanka thing, but it does not surprise me, he was incredibly sharp as to such opportunities.

His personal profile almost mirrored major politicians.

At first we love (some of) them, then we go through an intense dislike period, & then eventually, when they sail out to calmer seas & dotage, we come to admire & respect many of them.

I loved him as a cricketer (often controversial, even then), intensely disliked him during the WSC, but loved him to bits in the last 10 years.

[FUN4FRASER]

My last request for 2012... please have a small £50/60 on Stoke to beat Southampton for reasons already explained

[tikay]

My last request for 2012... please have a small £50/60 on Stoke to beat Southampton for reasons already explained

Thanks Fraser.

We did discuss that one at length earlier in the week, I seem to recall the view was that the price was somewhere near right, or almost so. As such, it did not fit the Fred criteria. The market had all the info, & had priced it right. We try not to bet in those situations.

At the time you recommended it, it was 5/6, & you felt it would soon go to 4/5 or worse.

The price since then has drifted considerably, & it now odds against in several spots. Any idea why this is? It is, on the face of it, a very odd drift.

I'm almost tempted at 21/20 to be honest, that is MUCH better than 5/6 or 4/5, & may now rep genuine value.

I'm very curious as to why it has drifted so much though, there is generally a reason.

Let us see what others think. In short, it was never a bet for Fred at 5/6, at 21/20 it might be, though I'm always wary of big drifters.



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/stoke-v-southampton/winner

It may be your last recommend of 2012, but I hope there are plenty more in '13. Don't forget, just because Fred does not always get on, it does not stop others doing so. For better or worse, though, we TRY only to get involved where the price is demonstrably wrong, or ool. At 5/6, it was not far out, thus "no bet".  At 21/20, it might just be......

[superwomble]

Tony Greig was also a director at Wimbledon FC for a short time.

[millidonk]

'Both Ryan Shawcross and Geoff Cameron in the Stoke defence are suspended for this game after being booked against Liverpoo'l apart from that there really isn't much I can see. Saints have had a couple of decent results but are still awful away from home. Nigel Adkins says they are up for it, but I'm sure he would say that before any game. I am on Stoke myself and I think 21/20 is a bet for Fred imo.

[tikay]

Tony Greig was also a director at Wimbledon FC for a short time.

Really?

Thanks womble, another thing I never knew. Seems to be a lot of it......

[TightEnd]

Shawcross is obviously a big loss, but even so a drift to odds-againast looks odd given the home form of Stoke and the propensity for Southampton to leak goals away

[tikay]

'Both Ryan Shawcross and Geoff Cameron in the Stoke defence are suspended for this game after being booked against Liverpoo'l apart from that there really isn't much I can see. Saints have had a couple of decent results but are still awful away from home. Nigel Adkins says they are up for it, but I'm sure he would say that before any game. I am on Stoke myself and I think 21/20 is a bet for Fred imo.

Thanks MilliGen,

That would help explain it, yes.

Must be said, Stoke were very impressive in that 3-1 win, so organised, & such energy. But wiser counsell than us, especially the bookies, know that too.

I do think it may be a different kettle of fish at 21/20. It was never a value bet at 5/6 or 4/5 though, or not in my opinion.

[tikay]

Shawcross is obviously a big loss, but even so a drift to odds-againast looks odd given the home form of Stoke and the propensity for Southampton to leak goals away

Given how the Premier League markets work, it is an extraordinary drift.

redarmi or Mr Channing normaly helps us understand these oddities. Never here when you want them.

[superwomble]

Tony Greig was also a director at Wimbledon FC for a short time.

Really?

Thanks womble, another thing I never knew. Seems to be a lot of it......

Second from left here:

http://historicaldons.com/1970l.htm

Click to see full-size image.