I've just been sent someone's conspiracy theory about CBB betting, thought you might like to read it:
Inside information at work on Celebrity Big Brother?
Never mind the horse racing. Maybe Chris Bell and the BBC should be looking at the integrity of Celebrity Big Brother (CBB) markets on the exchanges.
Call me a fool but I’ve taken an interest in CBB – currently being aired on
. And – call me a nincompoop – I’ve involved myself in one or two of the CBB markets on Betfair. We’re only a few days into the event and I’m already wondering if the playing field is level….
Last night saw the first eviction from the Big Brother house – with 3 participants up for the phone vote: Frankie Dettori, an American couple I’ve never heard of and Paula Hamilton.
I don’t know who knows what when it comes to these phone votes. I’m not sure how the information food-chain is configured, who stands where in its hierarchy or exactly when they get to know the outcome of what the rest of us are betting on.
One thing I do know is that a list of the exchange punters who were backing Paula Hamilton down to odds of 1.01 (1/100) in the minutes leading up to the announcement of the vote result would make for very interesting reading indeed.
In my book it’s 1.01 that at least some of the exchange punters who profited most in the ‘1st Eviction’ market knew the outcome of the phone vote – or at least which way the wind was blowing – sufficiently well in advance of the rest of the market to take advantage on the exchanges.
Making a mockery of fair play….
Looking at the market in the final moments before voting closed was a bit like looking at the death throes of a typical ‘Next Manager’ market – with the prices telling you which guy’s got the job before the official announcement is made.
Sure, there were only 3 up for last night’s vote and Frankie Dettori was nailed on to survive. But to these eyes the American married-couple are/were just as grotesque and depressing as Paula Hamilton and the public had just as many reasons to give them the bullet.
The bottom line is that Hamilton was never a genuine 1.01 shot. It was a much more open contest than that. She was only that price because people who already knew the outcome of the vote were piling on at ever-decreasing odds in the knowledge that they couldn't lose. That’s my contention.
Betfair should be looking into this issue – and identifying punters with an uncanny knack of calling CBB markets correctly in the minutes before a market closes and who demonstrate a willingness to back their view whatever the price. And then Betfair should act accordingly.
If Betfair are not prepared to acknowledge this issue or deal with it appropriately then they should close the markets and refuse to bet on Big Brother events because the situation, as it stands, makes an absolute mockery of fair-play and straight-dealing.
Thanks womble, most enlightening.
That is quite interesting (by CBB standards), but surely the aurthor's ire is being misdirected. He should be railing against Channel 5, not Betfair, imo.
If someone rings me up & says "x is going to be evicted, get on" & I punt that on Betfair, what have I done wrong? And what have Betfair done wrong? They don't force anyone to bet on what is, in any sane person's mind, a "novelty bet".
If there is a leak, it is a Channel 5 problem.
Whether Betfair should be allowed to trade such a dodgy market is another matter, but even if they did not, all the other bookies would still offer prices.
I think if we bet on nonsense like CBB, we have to accept, the thing is a charade. We just want to be the right side of the charade.
"Sing when we are winning" or "whinge when we are losing" seems to fit the bill.
caveat emptorIf betting on all these damn things was banned, it'd be the best result, imo. Then we could just bet on straight markets, like snooker, horse racing, cricket & the like.
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