Tips for Tikay

[david3103]

Manchester United v Liverpool

One of the games of every season - outright odds seem unattractive but given recent history of these games, and United's performances this season, is there a case for backing the 'win from behind'?

United 15/2 at Boylesports and Ladbrokes

More banzai is Liverpool with 16/1 at Boylesports

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-utd-v-liverpool/to-win-from-behind


I don't know much about the bookings market, but 5/2 on a booking for Gerrard seems worth considering?

[AndrewT]

One for consideration, probably more to do with how much value we place on being a seed in a Grand Slam.  The Aussie Open tournament starts next week.

Ryan Harrison is 12/1 to be top American in the tournament behind the 6/4ish favourites Sam Querry and John Isner.  The reason I thought of this was memories of Harrison’s match against Andy Murray in the first round last year when he took the first set off the Scot and I recall thinking he looked rather at home on Rebound Ace, against one of the best in the world who of course loves the Australian Open and has finalled twice. 

Last year was slightly disappointing for Harrison, but if this talented player is going to have a break out season then there is no reason why 2013 can’t be it.  He just beat Isner 6-4, 6-4 overnight in the Sydney warm up tournament which is an encouraging sign.  Isner and Querry have unremarkable Aus Open records, Round 3 being their best efforts so far (I think).  To me 12/1 on Harrison to beat this pair seems a little big.

Of course much depends on the draw, as Harrison isn’t seeded whilst the other pair are which means he can face a big gun in the opening rounds, whereas the other can’t.  It’s a big draw though of course with 128 slots.

So the question is, does the disadvantage of the draw mean that 12/1 is a poor price for a talented player open to bags of improvement against two experienced campaigners who are likely not open to any improvement.

Just really chewing this over but any thoughts from tennis viewers?

Isner has pulled out - it's now 4/11 Querry, 4 Harrison.

[Karabiner]

I loved that little horse he had a heart almost as big as himself.

RIP Katchit.

[edgascoigne]

I loved that little horse he had a heart almost as big as himself.

RIP Katchit.

What happened Ralph? Chap my dad works with owned a leg in him

[TightEnd]

We are a couple of weeks away from the Start of the Six Nations, one of the best sporting periods of the year

The fixtures are as follows

    Sat 2 Feb: Wales v Ireland, England v Scotland
    Sun 3 Feb: Italy v France
    Sat 9 Feb: Scotland v Italy, France v Wales
    Sun 10 Feb: Ireland v England
    Sat 23 Feb: Italy v Wales, England v France
    Sun 24 Feb: Scotland v Ireland
    Sat 9 Mar: Scotland v Wales, Ireland v France
    Sun 10 Mar: England v Italy
    Sat 16 Mar: Italy v Ireland, Wales v England, France v Scotland

These are of note because

a) France have to go to England and Ireland
b) Two of Ireland's three away games are at Italy/Scotland

Point a) is crucial and in years when France have these fixtures (home and aways alternate year by year) France are far less likely to win the grand slam than when they host the tougher teams and travel to Italy and Scotland.....

There is no outstanding British team either, and this follows a period where we have had 4 Grand Slams in 5 years and 7 in 12 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship)

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/grand-slam

I am not sure you have any appetite to back a 7/10 shot, but the true odds of there being no Grand Slam this year is well under 1/2 in my opinion

In terms of the winners market

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/six-nations/winner

- As explained above France do not appeal at 2-1 given the schedule. Every year they look the most talented team, but throw in an off day usually away.
- Only once in the last six sets of these fixtures (ie every other year) have France won the six nations. A crucial and overlooked point by current prices.
- Wales have injury problems and a rotten Autumn to contend with
- England are improving, but are a touch one dimensional to win five games on the trot, especially travelling to Dublin and Cardiff
- Italy and Scotland are genuine outsiders

Which leaves Ireland at 9/2

Ireland are between generations. O'Connell, O'Driscoll and the rest are passing the mantle on, though it appears O'Driscoll is fit again for this Six Nations

However, there is no outstanding team in my opinion
They have a favourable schedule (starting at Cardiff is a tough start, but I like it after that)
They have a superb kicker in Johnny Sexton, who is probably the Lions Test Kicker as it stands. He's 27, at his peak and will keep them in every game, especially in bad weather
They have a competitive pack both front row (Healy, Ross, Best/Strauss) and back row (Heaslip and O'Brien if fit)

and, structurally, years of Heineken Cup exposure has given many of their players from Munster and Leinster far more big match experience than former Irish teams used to have

This price, 9/2, is an interesting situation in a competition so open

Recommend £20 at 9/2 Ireland to win the Six Nations.

[Karabiner]

I loved that little horse he had a heart almost as big as himself.

RIP Katchit.

What happened Ralph? Chap my dad works with owned a leg in him

Colic apparently. He was only ten.

[edgascoigne]

I loved that little horse he had a heart almost as big as himself.

RIP Katchit.

What happened Ralph? Chap my dad works within owned a leg in him

Colic apparently. He was only ten.

RIP Katchit

[Sheriff Fatman]

sheriff you are spot on again

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20963656

any further views this morning?

I posted the news last night in the thread when it broke but the Swansea game kind of buried it a bit.

Right now the situation has been blown apart but there's no obvious standout I could honestly suggest as the value if you're coming into this market cold.  Of the original shortlist I had in mind there are a couple of names I've now ruled out of contention.

From my point of view, because I had a few names covered by backing O'Driscoll and then opposing Butcher when massive odds-on, the main change is that the original shortlist I was working on is expanding, so it's a case of looking for exposure and trying to cover likely new names if the price is right.  However, I honestly don't know where they're going to turn now as there are a few options they could be considering.

Consequently, the following is a guide on my thinking, given the above, but is more of an update for anyone who followed my earlier advice:

Rule out Megson now.  Apparently he hasn't applied and isn't under consideration so no value at current short prices.
Rosler signed a new 2yr contract extension with Brentford, so not an option anymore.
Saturdays' match vs Leeds will have a big impact on Flitcroft's chances.  A win vs a hated local rival will significantly improve his chances (and most companies have a 10 game rule for caretakers which he'll be 3 games into with no obvious candidate at the moment).  In contrast, a bad defeat/poor display against them will pretty much kill his chances stone dead.  He's best price 5/1 at the moment.
Current prices I like best for throwing darts at (but your own darts may vary):
Ince 20/1, Barmby 66/1, Coyle 66/1

[TightEnd]

Just announced

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Betting thoughts welcome please

[kinboshi]

Just announced

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Betting thoughts welcome please

I predict tears, and plenty of them.

[Tal]

Ricky Gervais 25-1 to be the subject of the first joke.

They're all scared of him after the Globes.

[Chompy]

Just announced

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Betting thoughts welcome please

Just roffle @ Jennifer Lawrence and Naomi Watts being up for those efforts.

Re: BB eviction betting, this sort of thing has been going on pretty much since Betfair came into being. There's always someone out there that knows more than the rest of us close to these markets being suspended, so just don't play them after a certain point.

"In my book it’s 1.01 that at least some of the exchange punters who profited most in the ‘1st Eviction’ market knew the outcome of the phone vote"

Advisedly referred to as exchange punters in a couple of senses.  The advice to “Never bet on anything that can talk” still stands and sadly BB contestants very much fall into this category.

Sigh. This line gets spouted a lot and, no offence, but it's garbage.

[Tal]

Just announced

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Betting thoughts welcome please

Just roffle @ Jennifer Lawrence and Naomi Watts being up for those efforts.

Hopefully Lawrence won't be 2/5 come the night of the awards...

[MANTIS01]

People who work for telephone networks can tell you what volume of calls are coming into each number from their network. So Vodafone guy can access his system and build a big sample from the data on the vodafone network. There are leaks all over. Any punt on these things is novelty like tikay said. The producers manipulate coverage to pursuit stories they think will make good tv so any bet is like drawing a number out a hat. Let's hope they don't draw the Riland is a talent free gossip queen number out the BB hat.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Our man has warmed up nicely for the game with another triple ton. From the India Times to the Hindustan news and the India cricket fans forum they all say Pujara should play. Will the selectors play ball ? It's also good news that the first match is being played on his home ground. It will be a tense few hours.

Afternoon h.

I had not realised it was his home track - surely they will pick him?

Not a disaster if they do not though. The disaster (for our bet) would be not picking him for the 1st, & India winning that one easily.

Anyway, it matters not, the die is cast now.

Let's have a fun sweat.

I'm not 100% sure, but I believe they commence at around 6am UK time. I shall be on the road from 6am tomorrow, so I'll miss it, but hopefully folks will updatre the thread so I can have a sneaky-weaky look now & then.