Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I'm working tonight, too, but at some stage pre 6am I will be putting that bet on for Bell to be top Tall Batsman.

If there are any experts who disagree, speak now, or forever hold your whatsits.

[tikay]

Manchester United v Liverpool

One of the games of every season - outright odds seem unattractive but given recent history of these games, and United's performances this season, is there a case for backing the 'win from behind'?

United 15/2 at Boylesports and Ladbrokes

More banzai is Liverpool with 16/1 at Boylesports

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-utd-v-liverpool/to-win-from-behind


I don't know much about the bookings market, but 5/2 on a booking for Gerrard seems worth considering?

Thank you Curtis.

To be honest, I'm not sure how anyone would work the maths of that bet out, as to whether the price reps value. If someone can, & it is, we'll get on. 

Personally, I agree that the Gerrard suggestion is intriguing, but again, we need the maths heads & Doobsy's Sofa to cast their beady eye on it.

[TightEnd]

Sadly no one is going to be up for the toss for the first ODI

I reckon the series could easily be 3-2 either way

England 11/8 tomorrow if they bat second is attractive in my opinion

Markets, punters myself included as well, have consistently over-rated India all winter and India 4/6 tomorrow essentially does that again

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/odi-series/india-v-england-%5B1st-odi%5D/winner

Would feel confident to have a bet if I knew we were chasing though

So a shrug and a warm duvet for me at 5am!

[tikay]

We are a couple of weeks away from the Start of the Six Nations, one of the best sporting periods of the year

The fixtures are as follows

    Sat 2 Feb: Wales v Ireland, England v Scotland
    Sun 3 Feb: Italy v France
    Sat 9 Feb: Scotland v Italy, France v Wales
    Sun 10 Feb: Ireland v England
    Sat 23 Feb: Italy v Wales, England v France
    Sun 24 Feb: Scotland v Ireland
    Sat 9 Mar: Scotland v Wales, Ireland v France
    Sun 10 Mar: England v Italy
    Sat 16 Mar: Italy v Ireland, Wales v England, France v Scotland

These are of note because

a) France have to go to England and Ireland
b) Two of Ireland's three away games are at Italy/Scotland

Point a) is crucial and in years when France have these fixtures (home and aways alternate year by year) France are far less likely to win the grand slam than when they host the tougher teams and travel to Italy and Scotland.....

There is no outstanding British team either, and this follows a period where we have had 4 Grand Slams in 5 years and 7 in 12 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship)

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/grand-slam

I am not sure you have any appetite to back a 7/10 shot, but the true odds of there being no Grand Slam this year is well under 1/2 in my opinion

In terms of the winners market

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/six-nations/winner

- As explained above France do not appeal at 2-1 given the schedule. Every year they look the most talented team, but throw in an off day usually away.
- Only once in the last six sets of these fixtures (ie every other year) have France won the six nations. A crucial and overlooked point by current prices.
- Wales have injury problems and a rotten Autumn to contend with
- England are improving, but are a touch one dimensional to win five games on the trot, especially travelling to Dublin and Cardiff
- Italy and Scotland are genuine outsiders

Which leaves Ireland at 9/2

Ireland are between generations. O'Connell, O'Driscoll and the rest are passing the mantle on, though it appears O'Driscoll is fit again for this Six Nations

However, there is no outstanding team in my opinion
They have a favourable schedule (starting at Cardiff is a tough start, but I like it after that)
They have a superb kicker in Johnny Sexton, who is probably the Lions Test Kicker as it stands. He's 27, at his peak and will keep them in every game, especially in bad weather
They have a competitive pack both front row (Healy, Ross, Best/Strauss) and back row (Heaslip and O'Brien if fit)

and, structurally, years of Heineken Cup exposure has given many of their players from Munster and Leinster far more big match experience than former Irish teams used to have

This price, 9/2, is an interesting situation in a competition so open

Recommend £20 at 9/2 Ireland to win the Six Nations.

Bumped to remind me to work through this later.

Thanks Tighty.

[david3103]

Manchester United v Liverpool

One of the games of every season - outright odds seem unattractive but given recent history of these games, and United's performances this season, is there a case for backing the 'win from behind'?

United 15/2 at Boylesports and Ladbrokes

More banzai is Liverpool with 16/1 at Boylesports

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-utd-v-liverpool/to-win-from-behind


I don't know much about the bookings market, but 5/2 on a booking for Gerrard seems worth considering?

Thank you Curtis.

To be honest, I'm not sure how anyone would work the maths of that bet out, as to whether the price reps value. If someone can, & it is, we'll get on. 

Personally, I agree that the Gerrard suggestion is intriguing, but again, we need the maths heads & Doobsy's Sofa to cast their beady eye on it.

Curtis?

[tikay]

Manchester United v Liverpool

One of the games of every season - outright odds seem unattractive but given recent history of these games, and United's performances this season, is there a case for backing the 'win from behind'?

United 15/2 at Boylesports and Ladbrokes

More banzai is Liverpool with 16/1 at Boylesports

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-utd-v-liverpool/to-win-from-behind


I don't know much about the bookings market, but 5/2 on a booking for Gerrard seems worth considering?

Thank you Curtis.

To be honest, I'm not sure how anyone would work the maths of that bet out, as to whether the price reps value. If someone can, & it is, we'll get on. 

Personally, I agree that the Gerrard suggestion is intriguing, but again, we need the maths heads & Doobsy's Sofa to cast their beady eye on it.

Curtis?

Sigh at my stupidity.

Apologies.

"David".

[tikay]

James Tredwell is 6/1 to be top England bowler for the upcoming series - http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/odi-series/india-england-odis/top-england-bowler

Way over priced in my opinion given he will be England's main spinner.  Finn is favourite, as he should be, and Dernbach bowls at the death so is likely to pick up a few cheap wickets.   Aside from those 2, he is the next most likely to pick up wickets given Swann's absence.  He's not going to rip through India's batting lineup but is a steady bowler who builds pressure to get wickets and has looked pretty good in the warm up games.  He hasn't had many chances for England, with just 7 ODIs in the last 2 years but he always does a job when he comes in the team (11 wickets in those 7 games at an average of ~23 shows that).

Bell has cemented his place opening the innings and given his form in the 2 warm up matches, 7/2 is worth considering as top England batsman

Hi Cricket Bloke.

There are some mixed views on Tredwell, & we cannot bet with Stan James, but hopefully others will get on.

So, for now, we will have a small interest in Bell, Top English Batsman. Good luck, & thank you.

We have £20 with Betfred @ 7/2, Bell, Top English Batsman, India v England ODI Series.

ON

India v England ODI Series
Top England Series Batsman
 Bell, Ian 7/2  
Total stake £ 20.00
Estimated return £ 90.00

Full stake £ 20.00
Full estimated return £ 90.00

[Sheriff Fatman]

Not sure what triggering the shortening price on Darren Moore at the moment.

Started the day 50/1, currently best price 2/1.

Can't find anything to support this but it's reminiscent of the way the price moved on Terry Butcher a few days ago so perhaps someone knows something and triggered this.

He's an ex-player but again has no managerial track record so if we were going down this route I'd have thought Redfearn would be the obvious option.  Again, he seems more like a No 2 as part of a management team to me, but that's a big change in price to put down to speculative money.

Very odd development.

[tikay]

.....and a special announcement.

New follower & Cricket Bloke "gherkhin" has just had his bet placed by Fred.

So gherkhin becomes the 100th different punter to have a Fred bet placed.

Incredible, with such a diverse range of people, views, & experience, & somehow we have kept our head above water, & even made a litttle profit.

Wer are in our 12th month of this thread, it's been so much fun, & no bad blood or trolling. Shame about CBB & the arty bollox, but nothing is perfect.

Lovely. Big thanks to everyone has has contributed.


 

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Not sure what triggering the shortening price on Darren Moore at the moment.

Started the day 50/1, currently best price 2/1.

Can't find anything to support this but it's reminiscent of the way the price moved on Terry Butcher a few days ago so perhaps someone knows something and triggered this.

He's an ex-player but again has no managerial track record so if we were going down this route I'd have thought Redfearn would be the obvious option.  Again, he seems more like a No 2 as part of a management team to me, but that's a big change in price to put down to speculative money.

Very odd development.

This vacancy just goes on giving.

Thanks David.

[redarmi]

I haven't got the mathematical brain/skills to work out the exact price but it is closely correlated to total goal expectancies because for any team to win from behind there has to be a minimum of 3 goals so you need a somewhat higher total than usual and this game has that especially for a top game with total expected goals of 3.13 on the basis of the asian market at the moment.  My spreadsheets will work out the "correct" prices for one team to be winning at and losing at FT and for MU Liv FT the correct score is 50/1 and for Liv MU FT the correct prices is 32/1.  I honestly have no idea how much more likely these are if you include all of the game and permutations but my gut feel is that they aren't value based on the above prices.  I also played about a bit with what happens if you increase the goal expectations as i think there is an argument United games are still too low in certain spots but they don't make a huge difference to the underlying probabilities.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Nicely evened up, Mr Kendall!

Despite my good predictive record on this market so far, it's reached a point now where there's a good chance I'm going to look a complete tit on this!

[tikay]

Nicely evened up, Mr Kendall!

Despite my good predictive record on this market so far, it's reached a point now where there's a good chance I'm going to look a complete tit on this!

Ha!

One thing in life is sure - make a mistake on the interweb, & someone will let you know pdq.

All good fun, & my own fault for trying to spin too many plates.

Think it may soon be time to slow down a bit, I'm surrounded by broken crockery.

[Tal]

No one?

Oh go on then. I'll play Alan Davies and await the klaxons...

Bell top English bowler?


Don't listen to 'em, TJ. You're doing a sterling job.

[horseplayer]

looks a short price to me on bell to bowl a ball let alone top bowler