Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

10 Feb, sir.

Ahh, Valentine's Day, excellent.

[Chompy]

Paddy Power have Heidi/Spencer @ 8-1 to get the boot from CBB on Wednesday, which is way out of line (not a plopable, as they bet 1/2, 2/1, 8/1, 25/1).

The last price matched on Betfair was 5.7 and this is a hard one to price up. Suggest £10 @ 8/1.

[tikay]

Losers

Splash (-£10). Eddie the Eagle Edwards is now a big favourite to win this. How did Doobs, who has never watched the show, know that?

He must have had some athletic ability and be pretty comfortable in the water as he won every round of winter wipeout.

He would clearly be comfortable with heights given his background falling down great big hills.

And I guessed there was some insider money down causing his price to contract.  

Just wish I'd thought it through when he was bigger.  

As it was, I did actually catch our hero's dive.  He only flung himself off the highest board and did a 1.5 somersault.  Meanwhile Mr Essex fell off the lower board much to the delight of his 2 million followers on twitter. His teeth could have lit up a ballroom mind.  The 2 million followers were left disappointed by the judges favouring a faller who not only looked better in a swimsuit, but had a broken toe to boot.

Bet Victor are offering 2/1 this crap continues for another season.  I assume that is nailed on so long as 5 million people exist in this country who don't want to punch Vernon Kay square on the end of his nose.  Kapow.  Worth £20?

If we are still short of reality stars for our stable.  If I was going to rely on offensive stereotyping and pick a likely male winner of dancing on ice, I suspect a good place to start would be a gay rugby player.  He hasn't 'danced' yet, and the 16s I got is long gone.  I assume there must be somebody on tonight's show who isn't really dreadful, and Gareth seems most likely. Bet Victor are still offering 8/1.  

Finally, Jo Brand, just wow.

I was serous on backing splash for a second series at 2/1.  ITV aren't going to worry about the critics if 6 million people make it the most popular show on a Saturday night.  2/1 must be stealing money from betvictor.  I think we should up it to £50.

http://tellymix.co.uk/ratings/129052-tom-daley-and-itvs-splash-remains-a-surprise-ratings-hit.html?redir

Thanks Doobsy.

I said yesterday that I had placed this & would confirm it later, which I now do.

My gut reaction to the proposal was "don't be so daft", but then I looked at the Audience Ratings, which were huge for ITV, & realised they have no interest in quality, just ratings, & it is low budget to make, too. If peeps can get excited about CBB & the like, why would they not like "Splash", as well? Anyway, you hold "Auto-Bet" rights, so we are on anyway.

We hsave £50 @ 2/1, BetVictor, a second series of "Splash" to be commissioned.

ON

13/01/2013 GBP 50.00 Single: YES @ 2/1 
Betid 29757397000 Time: 17:51 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 50.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
Splash Second Series Splash
Outright - Outright
 Yes  2/1  Win only  Unsettled 



 

[tikay]

Paddy Power have Heidi/Spencer @ 8-1 to get the boot from CBB on Wednesday, which is way out of line (not a plopable, as they bet 1/2, 2/1, 8/1, 25/1).

The last price matched on Betfair was 5.7 and this is a hard one to price up. Suggest £10 @ 8/1.

Thanks CBB Guru.

You never gave me a link to the bet, but I found it on Paddy Power under "Novelty Bets". Say no more.

We have £10 @ 8/1, Paddy Power, Heidi Spencer to be the the next Evictee on CBB.

ON

Celebrity Big Brother Next Eviction
16-01-2013 21:45
Next Eviction
Heidi & Spencer @ 8/1
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Heidi & Spencer @ 8/1
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential returns: £90.00
No: O/23146337/0000241

 
Total stake: £10.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £10.00

 Your bet has been placed successfully

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1010, Monday January 14th                     

PROFIT on Month = £232.60

Unsettled Bets  - £1,086.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=18

[Chompy]

Oops, last price matched on Betfair was 4.7 not 5.7. You could even go for a bit of trading here and have as much as they'll let you at 8/1, then lay it all back at 5/1.

[AndrewT]

Oops, last price matched on Betfair was 4.7 not 5.7. You could even go for a bit of trading here and have as much as they'll let you at 8/1, then lay it all back at 5/1.

That would be amazing for when Tikay has to explain why his Paddy Power account was closed.

'Well, I was betting on Celebrity Big Brother...'

[superwomble]

tikay moving markets again? Now 6/1 on PP!

[Tal]

Oops, last price matched on Betfair was 4.7 not 5.7. You could even go for a bit of trading here and have as much as they'll let you at 8/1, then lay it all back at 5/1.

That would be amazing for when Tikay has to explain why his Paddy Power account was closed.

'Well, I was betting on Celebrity Big Brother...'

Would it make the book?

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 1020, Monday January 14th

We made a profit of £32 yesterday.

One bet completed, one bet won, lovely.

On Saturday we lost £33, yesterday we won £32, so our weekend's endeavours cost us a whole quid. Pretty good value, considering the fun we had.

The winner yesterday was down to Kuku, who gave us his beloved Seattle +3.5. The betting slip was in the bin at one stage, but a remarkable comeback got us out of it.   

The Australian Open Tennis has begun today, & we have £50 EW on Federer @ 5/1.


http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/mens-australian-open/winner

Our SuperBowl wager on the 49ers continues to deliver.

They are now between 2/1 & 9/4, & we have £250 at an average price of just under 7/1.  Presumably, we will need to discuss some insurance on that bet soon.......

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/superbowl/winner

[TightEnd]

The second cricket ODI takes place tomorrow at the Nehru stadium in Kochi, India

Cricinfo describes the Nehru thus

"The Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium at Kochi, unusual for a cricket ground in India in that it is the home ground not just of the Kerala state Ranji team but also of the football club FC Kochi, has a reputation of being a batsman's paradise: in the first four games there were three totals in excess of 300, and five individual hundreds. But if there's a bowler who'd like to take the pitch here and carry it around with him wherever he goes, it's Sachin Tendulkar, who has taken both his five-wicket hauls in ODIs here. Architecturally the stadium is distinctive, with giant convex floodlight pylons arching over the ground, over stands consisting of several tiers, making for a furnace-like effect when the ground is at all of its 60,000-strong capacity. Plans are afoot to build some kind of roof over the stands to protect spectators, and the Kerala Cricket Association (KCA) also has plans for making a bid for Test status for the venue, which is owned by the Greater Cochin Development Authority (GCDA)"

Looking at the records there have been six ODIs there (a seventh was abandoned)

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/india-v-england-2012/engine/records/team/highest_innings_totals.html?class=2;id=1056;type=ground

4 have first innings scores above 280

The established cricket bettor Ed Hawkins states

The Nehru Stadium doubles as a football pitch so you could be forgiven for reckoning this will not suit the batsmen. You couldn't be more wrong. In the first four games there were three totals in excess of 300, and five individual hundreds. Indeed, the first-innings average is 271 and the runs per over average is 5.27. We should expect 275 to be breached first up, especially after the form of the willowmen in Rajkot.

in

http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/england-cricket/india-v-england-2nd-odi-betting-runs-if-the-offing-again-130113-194.html

In the first ODI last week, on a flat one, 323 played 314.

Seems interesting to me that a first innings score of higher than 270 is odds against, when I looked yesterday though the current Betfair runs markets are suspended

[Chompy]

tikay moving markets again? Now 6/1 on PP!

Filthy arbers! Boooo!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpZ_BLEsS7c

[Simon Galloway]

ATTENTION CHOMPY

OK, here is the CBB deal.

I'm sick of all this CBB bollox polluting a thread for grown-ups, so I RAISE.

Fred will allocate the sum of £100a (One Hundred Pounds) to CBB.

Fred couldn't bet it anyway without his compliance officer wanting a word about breaching his trading limits...

[tikay]

ATTENTION CHOMPY

OK, here is the CBB deal.

I'm sick of all this CBB bollox polluting a thread for grown-ups, so I RAISE.

Fred will allocate the sum of £100a (One Hundred Pounds) to CBB.

Fred couldn't bet it anyway without his compliance officer wanting a word about breaching his trading limits...

Good spot Sir GallowayHead

Compliance Officers, the very thought, ugh.

[tikay]

The second cricket ODI takes place tomorrow at the Nehru stadium in Kochi, India

Cricinfo describes the Nehru thus

"The Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium at Kochi, unusual for a cricket ground in India in that it is the home ground not just of the Kerala state Ranji team but also of the football club FC Kochi, has a reputation of being a batsman's paradise: in the first four games there were three totals in excess of 300, and five individual hundreds. But if there's a bowler who'd like to take the pitch here and carry it around with him wherever he goes, it's Sachin Tendulkar, who has taken both his five-wicket hauls in ODIs here. Architecturally the stadium is distinctive, with giant convex floodlight pylons arching over the ground, over stands consisting of several tiers, making for a furnace-like effect when the ground is at all of its 60,000-strong capacity. Plans are afoot to build some kind of roof over the stands to protect spectators, and the Kerala Cricket Association (KCA) also has plans for making a bid for Test status for the venue, which is owned by the Greater Cochin Development Authority (GCDA)"

Looking at the records there have been six ODIs there (a seventh was abandoned)

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/india-v-england-2012/engine/records/team/highest_innings_totals.html?class=2;id=1056;type=ground

4 have first innings scores above 280

The established cricket bettor Ed Hawkins states

The Nehru Stadium doubles as a football pitch so you could be forgiven for reckoning this will not suit the batsmen. You couldn't be more wrong. In the first four games there were three totals in excess of 300, and five individual hundreds. Indeed, the first-innings average is 271 and the runs per over average is 5.27. We should expect 275 to be breached first up, especially after the form of the willowmen in Rajkot.

in

http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/england-cricket/india-v-england-2nd-odi-betting-runs-if-the-offing-again-130113-194.html

In the first ODI last week, on a flat one, 323 played 314.

Seems interesting to me that a first innings score of higher than 270 is odds against, when I looked yesterday though the current Betfair runs markets are suspended

Thanks Rich.

We will need to keep an eye on this throughout the day, as those "Total Runs" Markets on Betfair remain suspended. Even the "England Total Runs" & "India Total Runs" (which would be another angle of doing the bet) are suspended.

None of the Bookmakers appear to offer the Market, either, whicfh seems rather odd, but there must be a reason I suppose.