Tips for Tikay

[youthnkzR]

Tal, you dropped your badge:



  

[Doobs]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

I have spent 25 years explaining the results of complex mathematical calculations to laymen.  I would say your confidence in their understanding of that word is misplaced.  I think most of them will get guesstimate.

Language should be used as a tool to aid the understanding of our audience and not as a tool to show how much more clever we are.

I guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this. 

Wasn't quite expecting that tenor of reaction, if I'm honest.

It is a word - as is signage - but I don't like it, partly because it is a word that I don't feel adds anything to the words we had before.

Apparently, in making this point, I've caused offence and come across to you like a know-it-all. I could agree with you that language needs to evolve and that its sole function is to aid understanding or to convey a message. I could also happily agree that Camel's post makes perfect sense and that his deliberate choice of words highlighted how approximate his maths was.

But how about I just apologise for any offence caused and we move on?

If anything I was pretty snotty. So I apologise and let's move on.

As an aside anyone got an idea of how I should explain snow to a one year old.  She is clearly fascinated by the stuff, but her language skills are currently limited to pointing and saying "da".

Get her wrapped up and on the stuff imo.

Absolutely this

Good thinking. Will be out there after lunch.

[Doobs]

I'm still trying to get over the Camel's guesstimate. It's bad enough as a noun, bit he used it as a verb!

As words that make my skin crawl go, it's right there with signage.

Guesstimate is clearly a very good word.  It comes from the mixture of guesswork and calculation.  Guesstimate is a much more honest description of much of what I do in the World.  If you tell people you are doing a projection or have modelled the results, a layman may have no idea of the amount of guesswork involved in setting some of the underlying assumptions.  Guesstimate lets them know exactly where we really are.

By contrast, recency is an abomination.

We already have a word that explains to the audience we have done some calculations based on knowledge, experience and a little guesswork.

Estimate

I have spent 25 years explaining the results of complex mathematical calculations to laymen.  I would say your confidence in their understanding of that word is misplaced.  I think most of them will get guesstimate.

Language should be used as a tool to aid the understanding of our audience and not as a tool to show how much more clever we are.

I guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this. 

Wasn't quite expecting that tenor of reaction, if I'm honest.

It is a word - as is signage - but I don't like it, partly because it is a word that I don't feel adds anything to the words we had before.

Apparently, in making this point, I've caused offence and come across to you like a know-it-all. I could agree with you that language needs to evolve and that its sole function is to aid understanding or to convey a message. I could also happily agree that Camel's post makes perfect sense and that his deliberate choice of words highlighted how approximate his maths was.

But how about I just apologise for any offence caused and we move on?

If anything I was pretty snotty. So I apologise and let's move on.

As an aside anyone got an idea of how I should explain snow to a one year old.  She is clearly fascinated by the stuff, but her language skills are currently limited to pointing and saying "da".

Get her wrapped up and on the stuff imo.

Absolutely this

Good thinking. Will be out there after lunch.

She now understands snow and has let me know she prefers lunch!

[Ant040689]

[Tal]

[Doobs]

Losers

Splash (-£10). Eddie the Eagle Edwards is now a big favourite to win this. How did Doobs, who has never watched the show, know that?

He must have had some athletic ability and be pretty comfortable in the water as he won every round of winter wipeout.

He would clearly be comfortable with heights given his background falling down great big hills.

And I guessed there was some insider money down causing his price to contract.  

Just wish I'd thought it through when he was bigger.  

As it was, I did actually catch our hero's dive.  He only flung himself off the highest board and did a 1.5 somersault.  Meanwhile Mr Essex fell off the lower board much to the delight of his 2 million followers on twitter. His teeth could have lit up a ballroom mind.  The 2 million followers were left disappointed by the judges favouring a faller who not only looked better in a swimsuit, but had a broken toe to boot.

Bet Victor are offering 2/1 this crap continues for another season.  I assume that is nailed on so long as 5 million people exist in this country who don't want to punch Vernon Kay square on the end of his nose.  Kapow.  Worth £20?

If we are still short of reality stars for our stable.  If I was going to rely on offensive stereotyping and pick a likely male winner of dancing on ice, I suspect a good place to start would be a gay rugby player.  He hasn't 'danced' yet, and the 16s I got is long gone.  I assume there must be somebody on tonight's show who isn't really dreadful, and Gareth seems most likely. Bet Victor are still offering 8/1.  

Finally, Jo Brand, just wow.

I was serous on backing splash for a second series at 2/1.  ITV aren't going to worry about the critics if 6 million people make it the most popular show on a Saturday night.  2/1 must be stealing money from betvictor.  I think we should up it to £50.

http://tellymix.co.uk/ratings/129052-tom-daley-and-itvs-splash-remains-a-surprise-ratings-hit.html?redir

Paddy Power have opened a market on this.  It is 5/6 Splash doesn't return by 2014 and 5/6 it does.  So we can back both sides at 5/6 and 2/1 for guaranteed profit.  The Bet Victor bet also gives us until 2015, so if there is a second series, but not until 2015 both bets win.

I am not suggesting arbing, but I think this emphasises the value in the Bet Victor price.  It is still there today for those that missed it originally.

[TightEnd]

England lost the second ODI heavily

Bell was out very cheaply, and falls behind Cook in the top batter market. Still 3 games to go, and no other English batsman capitalised. Everything to play for

The 3rd ODI is Saturday 6am our time. Its in Ranchi, up near the Himalayas to the North East, at a brand new stadium only opened in October

Little to go on with conditions, then

Repeating the point, only being able to have 4 fielders outside the circle at all times (it was formerly 5 aside from Powerplay overs), a new regulation for 2013, is going to make things very tough for fielding captains at the back ends of innings. We've seen that in both ODIs in this series so far

A typical quote of 250-270 for a side batting first is going to look on the low side often, and we'll see how quickly quotes adjust upwards for this law change

[The Camel]

I don't want to stir up a settled argument.....

But my use of the word guesstimate was quite deliberate.

I thought the sample size was far too small to make a reliable estimate of the correct price of the QB, so I was guessing, with a small element of statistical evidence to back up my guess.

As to the price, I'm quite prepared to concede 4/6 the QB is MVP is value. But it's never as short as 1/3 as Neil suggests imo.

[Doobs]

Just for Camel

[The Camel]

Just for Camel

incred

[tikay]

Losers

Splash (-£10). Eddie the Eagle Edwards is now a big favourite to win this. How did Doobs, who has never watched the show, know that?

He must have had some athletic ability and be pretty comfortable in the water as he won every round of winter wipeout.

He would clearly be comfortable with heights given his background falling down great big hills.

And I guessed there was some insider money down causing his price to contract.  

Just wish I'd thought it through when he was bigger.  

As it was, I did actually catch our hero's dive.  He only flung himself off the highest board and did a 1.5 somersault.  Meanwhile Mr Essex fell off the lower board much to the delight of his 2 million followers on twitter. His teeth could have lit up a ballroom mind.  The 2 million followers were left disappointed by the judges favouring a faller who not only looked better in a swimsuit, but had a broken toe to boot.

Bet Victor are offering 2/1 this crap continues for another season.  I assume that is nailed on so long as 5 million people exist in this country who don't want to punch Vernon Kay square on the end of his nose.  Kapow.  Worth £20?

If we are still short of reality stars for our stable.  If I was going to rely on offensive stereotyping and pick a likely male winner of dancing on ice, I suspect a good place to start would be a gay rugby player.  He hasn't 'danced' yet, and the 16s I got is long gone.  I assume there must be somebody on tonight's show who isn't really dreadful, and Gareth seems most likely. Bet Victor are still offering 8/1.  

Finally, Jo Brand, just wow.

I was serous on backing splash for a second series at 2/1.  ITV aren't going to worry about the critics if 6 million people make it the most popular show on a Saturday night.  2/1 must be stealing money from betvictor.  I think we should up it to £50.

http://tellymix.co.uk/ratings/129052-tom-daley-and-itvs-splash-remains-a-surprise-ratings-hit.html?redir

Paddy Power have opened a market on this.  It is 5/6 Splash doesn't return by 2014 and 5/6 it does.  So we can back both sides at 5/6 and 2/1 for guaranteed profit.  The Bet Victor bet also gives us until 2015, so if there is a second series, but not until 2015 both bets win.

I am not suggesting arbing, but I think this emphasises the value in the Bet Victor price.  It is still there today for those that missed it originally.

Good spot, Compliance Officer Chap.

We have a nice voucher for £50 @ 2/1 tucked in our trunks, so we are very pleased.

[bobby1]

Does anyone know what the make up was in those player perf markets that Peejay posted yesterday?

[JaffaCake]

Sky, having reported Monty a done deal yesterday, now saying McGinley is fave to be next ryder cup cappo....doesn't Fred have a decent price bet on this from long ago?

[Karabiner]

Just for Camel

incred

Great find!

Nailed-on to be Keith's new ringtone.

[Simon Galloway]

Was looking at the MVP market prior to the last games.  PP were 3/1 Denver and 3/1 Manning for MVP.  I thought this a bit strange, as it is pretty much saying that every single time that Denver win, the QB is the  MVP.  There is of course a slender chance that he gets MVP on the losing side.  At the time, I meant to ask the NFL gurus about that.

Ffwd to this week and PP go Evs Pats and 8/11 Brady MVP.  Now that surely is redic?  Can anyone explain why Brady is shorter than the team?  Surely he can't get MVP on the losing side enough (I think the stat is once in the last 20 SBs) to warrant those prices?  Guessing it was a rick (and the wrong way for us to take advanatge of ofc) but just wanted to see if there was anything I was missing.