Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Was looking at the MVP market prior to the last games.  PP were 3/1 Denver and 3/1 Manning for MVP.  I thought this a bit strange, as it is pretty much saying that every single time that Denver win, the QB is the  MVP.  There is of course a slender chance that he gets MVP on the losing side.  At the time, I meant to ask the NFL gurus about that.

Ffwd to this week and PP go Evs Pats and 8/11 Brady MVP.  Now that surely is redic?  Can anyone explain why Brady is shorter than the team?  Surely he can't get MVP on the losing side enough (I think the stat is once in the last 20 SBs) to warrant those prices?

Worst. Price. Ever.

[Tal]

I don't want to stir up a settled argument.....

But my use of the word guesstimate was quite deliberate.

I thought the sample size was far too small to make a reliable estimate of the correct price of the QB, so I was guessing, with a small element of statistical evidence to back up my guess.

As to the price, I'm quite prepared to concede 4/6 the QB is MVP is value. But it's never as short as 1/3 as Neil suggests imo.

All understood, sir. As I said, I knew exactly what you meant and I recognise it's a word.

Your post above says you were guessing and that was the heart of my poorly constructed^* and ill-fated grumble: you can say either guess or estimate and choosing one over the other implies the balance of knowledge/calculation/experience used. The word guesstimate solves a problem that doesn't exist and I was pointing out I don't like it.

It was academic but fervently defended. Nevertheless, it's over now

All of this detracts from the unanimously-loathed recency.

Uncle Tikay, may I be excused?

* oh the irony of starting an argument about the clarity of language and not getting my point across...

[bobby1]

Was looking at the MVP market prior to the last games.  PP were 3/1 Denver and 3/1 Manning for MVP.  I thought this a bit strange, as it is pretty much saying that every single time that Denver win, the QB is the  MVP.  There is of course a slender chance that he gets MVP on the losing side.  At the time, I meant to ask the NFL gurus about that.

Ffwd to this week and PP go Evs Pats and 8/11 Brady MVP.  Now that surely is redic?  Can anyone explain why Brady is shorter than the team?  Surely he can't get MVP on the losing side enough (I think the stat is once in the last 20 SBs) to warrant those prices?  Guessing it was a rick (and the wrong way for us to take advanatge of ofc) but just wanted to see if there was anything I was missing.

It's a mess isn't it, there are some prices lower down the list that are too big because the top end is too short.

[BigAdz]

The only other person I have heard discuss recency was James Willoughby.

Must be a word only used by those that dont get enough sleep!

[bobby1]

haha, I guess if you sleep as little as him then you have more recency in your days.

[Doobs]

I don't want to stir up a settled argument.....

But my use of the word guesstimate was quite deliberate.

I thought the sample size was far too small to make a reliable estimate of the correct price of the QB, so I was guessing, with a small element of statistical evidence to back up my guess.

As to the price, I'm quite prepared to concede 4/6 the QB is MVP is value. But it's never as short as 1/3 as Neil suggests imo.

All understood, sir. As I said, I knew exactly what you meant and I recognise it's a word.

Your post above says you were guessing and that was the heart of my poorly constructed^* and ill-fated grumble: you can say either guess or estimate and choosing one over the other implies the balance of knowledge/calculation/experience used. The word guesstimate solves a problem that doesn't exist and I was pointing out I don't like it.

It was academic but fervently defended. Nevertheless, it's over now

All of this detracts from the unanimously-loathed recency.

Uncle Tikay, may I be excused?

* oh the irony of starting an argument about the clarity of language and not getting my point across...

While all this was going on I managed to introduce the word Kaepernicking to the thread without so much as a peep.

[redarmi]

I think the reason that the MVP prices are sometimes shorter than the team to win the superbowl is grounded in the overall margins that the individual firms bet to on markets like that.  In the MVP market they will bet to a ridic percentage largely because they are clueless as we have seen with the Kaepernick and Gonzalez.  I think you will find that the amount of work that goes into these markets from the odds compilers is less than the level of analysis that has already gone into it in this thread and definitely with less intelligence.  The likely process was an overworked NFL odds compiler had to get a bunch of markets out and had 24 hours to do it and literally sat down and knocked out these prices in 15-20 minutes with a cursory look at the outright markets and sketching out the likely candidates.  His concerns and a little work might go into the back end of the market because he doesn't want to lay something at 100/1 that should be 14/1 because that might get him fired but he isn't that bothered if he lays a 3/1 shot at 7/2 because nobody notices them in amongst the FOBT's and social gaming etc.  Of course it is a bit of an oversimplification and there are some very good odds compilers out there but one very sharp punter once said to me when we were discussing a bet he had made "the thing you need to understand is this lad has come up with this price with reference to the goals section of the Sun whilst eating a meat and potato pasty from Greggs whilst simultaneously filling out his Lingfield placepot" and there is a generally a lot of truth in that stereotype!!

[Simon Galloway]

Ty for the responses, I wonder if in Doob's guesstimation history, a meat&potato pasty every got a mention

[rfgqqabc]

Does anyone know what the make

up was in those player perf markets that Peejay posted yesterday?

They were just runs scored. All 3 lost.

[peejaytwo]

Cook subject to the commentators curse of "very comfortable" etc
I think his problem was KP keeping him off strike during their partnership but whatever.
Another bet filed in the value loser column,hope i can buy at 23.5 for the next ODI.

[bobby1]

Cook subject to the commentators curse of "very comfortable" etc
I think his problem was KP keeping him off strike during their partnership but whatever.
Another bet filed in the value loser column,hope i can buy at 23.5 for the next ODI.

Pity that mate coz they were big differences. Would be nice to have those kind of options in future matches

[The Camel]

Leeds at 3.3 tonight?

Only thing I could remotely find.

[TightEnd]

tikay hasn't been around to consider Ant's suggestion, but 7 changes for Palace at Stoke. The 4 who keep their place from Saturday are Ramage, Delaney, Jedinak and Zaha. Shows Holloway's priorities?

Stoke play 8 of the 11 who played Saturday.

I wondered about Fulham at nearly 2-1 at Blackpool, but agree its an uninspring betting night. 

[tikay]

Hi,

Long time thread stalker, first time poster. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading these pages over the past couple of months, and have managed to nick a few quid on a few of the selections. So I thought I would try and add something I see as being potentially a good investment.

I see golf has been profitable so far, and you seem to have plenty of knowledgeable golf posters (bobby1, hector etc). So I would be interested to hear your thoughts

Ryder Cup 2014 European Captain at Gleneagles -

With the ryder cup just round the corner, most ppls thoughts concern the event in Medinah in three weeks. But my attention was caught by a market for the euro captain for 2014 . This is normally announced around December 2012/January 2013, so it would mean tying up your money for a couple of months but I believe it may be worth it.

The selection will be Paul McGinley @ 2/1 with William Hill, Skybet are Evens (Only Two Firms betting on it).

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/2014-european-ryder-cup-captain

Reasons:

Paul has a strong ryder cup background, being a winning member of the european teams in '02, '04 and '06. Which included holing the winning putt at The Belfry in 2002. He has been the winning captain of the Seve Trophy (a team competition between GB&I and Europe) in both 2009 and 2011, widely accepted to have done an excellent job on both occasions with arguably weaker sides. The two previous Seve Trophy winning captains (Montgomerie and Faldo) both subsequently captained the European side in the Ryder Cup. Paul was a vice captain to Monty in 2010, and is fulfilling the role again in three weeks time (alongside Clarke, Bjorn and Jimenez).

The main reason of the bet is the weakness of his fellow potential captains, the betting(with WH) is a follows ;

McGinley 2/1 - Case made above
Monty 3/1 - Has strong ties to Gleneagles, but a wealth of potential captains in waiting(McG, Clarke, Bjorn, Lawrie, Jimenez) makes it highly unlikely he will be asked to repeat. Neither side has had a captain do the job more than once since Bernhard Gallagher in 1995. He has stated that he will only consider it, if approached.
Clarke 5/1 - Darren has been highly critical of Gleneagles in the past. Quotes including "It's unbelievable they chose to stage the 2014 Ryder Cup on this course," http://www.scotsman.com/sport/darren-clarke-unflinching-in-criticism-of-gleneagles-for-2014-ryder-cup-1-1754822). Darren's higher profile in the USA would make him the strong fav to be capt in 2016 at Hazelltine, he has also stated his intention to play the senior tour in the USA once he turns 50.
Lawrie 8/1 - Currently playing the best golf of his career, he is unlikely to want to jeopardise this by having the distraction of the captaincy. Also, has no experience in captaining team sides. Only such a short price because he is Scottish.
Bjorn 10/1 - A possibility, but a fairly controversial character and probably feels still able to make the team in 2014.
Jimenez 14/1 - Unlikely to be back-to-back Spanish Captains, plus has no captaining experience.
Olazabal 16/1 - May depend on how he does in Medinah, but like Monty, no repeat Cpt since 1995. Happy to rule out.
Lyle 14/1 - Not the worst outsider, as he has stated a few times about his desire to be the captain. Is Scottish, but is too out-of-sync with the current game and not sure he would be a popular choice.
Price 33/1 - Too low profile
Langer 40/1 - Done the job before, shown no desire
Westwood 40/1 - Worst price of all time, is in the process of moving to USA to try and improve his chances of that elusive major. Will not want the distraction. Should be 400/1
Torrance  66/1 - Done the job before
Woosnam 66/1 - Done the job before
Faldo 66/1 - Did a spectacularly bad job last time, no chance.

I rate McGinleys chance of getting the job at more like 65-75%, so this should be comfortably odds on.

Although tying up the money for a few months in not ideal, I think its worth it.

Recommend: £100 @ 2/1 Paul McGinley to be Ryder Cup Captain in 2014 with William Hill

I would be interested to see the thoughts of others?

Someone, earlier today, mentioned the market on the Ryder Cup Captain, & asked if we had got involved, as this had been raised some months ago.

FWIW, this was the Post, back in September.

Well done Mr Fellaini.

I can't recall exactly why we demurred & eventually decided not to bet, but I think it was suspected that the bet may not be settled for a goodly while, &/or that, perhaps, Bookies may not pay out until the Ryder Cup took place. Or maybe we just goofed.

Fine piece of analysis, whatever. 

[tikay]

tikay hasn't been around to consider Ant's suggestion, but 7 changes for Palace at Stoke. The 4 who keep their place from Saturday are Ramage, Delaney, Jedinak and Zaha. Shows Holloway's priorities?

Stoke play 8 of the 11 who played Saturday.

I wondered about Fulham at nearly 2-1 at Blackpool, but agree its an uninspring betting night. 

I've been little tied up today, so unless we have something we feel fairly strongly about, I think we'll have a rest day.

Same applies to Keith's sugggestion of Leeds - if it is a strong recommend, we'll have a dabble, but if it is just a Luke (as in Luke Warm), we'll keep our powder dry.

Thanks for both suggestions though.

I'll keep an eye on the thread pre kick off time, & if you think the bets are justified, I'll get on.