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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16574962 times)
claypole
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« Reply #27375 on: January 21, 2013, 12:24:56 AM »
Well done - congrats Mr Hawkins, what a legend
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #27376 on: January 21, 2013, 12:32:54 AM »
If there is going to be a long discussion about greening I would suggest it should be done in the context of what the line "should" be, what we think it will be & whether there are other, better ways to hedge.

 Just fyi I think Patriots by 2 & 53 points or 49ers by 6.5 & 47 pts. Obviously it could change depending on what happens here, after all, we all know about recency.
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Newportlad
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« Reply #27377 on: January 21, 2013, 12:34:03 AM »
Quote from: tikay on January 20, 2013, 11:22:35 PM

Next up, we are on UNDER 51.5 points in the Ravens v Pats game for £44 @ 10/11.

3-0 after the 1st quarter...
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tikay
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« Reply #27378 on: January 21, 2013, 12:34:37 AM »

......recency.....

Smiley
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TL900
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« Reply #27379 on: January 21, 2013, 12:41:59 AM »
Ravens Ravens Ravens.

Im on Ravens @ 20/1 early in season, and 49ers along with Fred @ 6/1 so win here for the FreerollBowl
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« Reply #27380 on: January 21, 2013, 12:43:13 AM »
Quote from: Bad Beat on January 21, 2013, 12:32:54 AM
If there is going to be a long discussion about greening I would suggest it should be done in the context of what the line "should" be, what we think it will be & whether there are other, better ways to hedge.

 Just fyi I think Patriots by 2 & 53 points or 49ers by 6.5 & 47 pts. Obviously it could change depending on what happens here, after all, we all know about recency.

Yes and the ensuing discussion about recency is sure to be effortful.
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« Reply #27381 on: January 21, 2013, 01:26:00 AM »
 Interesting moves. Pinny open Patriots vs 49ers at 2 and now they are pick em with the 9ers as a favourite (10/11).

 The Greek opened pick-em, despite waiting to see Pinny open and with the knowledge that Pinny were -2. They then immediately moved to -125 (4/5) the 49ers.

 Presumably, this 2nd half being a bit boring and low-scoring will make the 49ers closer to 1 pts fav vs the Patriots and 6.5 vs the Ravens.
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #27382 on: January 21, 2013, 01:28:36 AM »
 All of that means they are a bet at the current evs with Betfair and definitely not a lay.

 77% of the time you have bet a 10/11 chance at evs and 23 % of the time you bet a 70% chance at evs.

 Nice work. If anyone wants to green I can help.
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The Camel
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« Reply #27383 on: January 21, 2013, 01:36:12 AM »
Quote from: Bad Beat on January 21, 2013, 01:28:36 AM
All of that means they are a bet at the current evs with Betfair and definitely not a lay.

 77% of the time you have bet a 10/11 chance at evs and 23 % of the time you bet a 70% chance at evs.

 Nice work. If anyone wants to green I can help.

The lines you quoted aren't the actual lines though.

SF were -1 at Atlanta at one stage while Atlanta were playing Seattle.
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« Reply #27384 on: January 21, 2013, 01:39:31 AM »
Just caught up with the day, magic reading. Well played men.

Cmon Ravens
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« Reply #27385 on: January 21, 2013, 01:45:57 AM »
 These are definitely live lines Keith. Currently pick-em and 53 at The Greek.

 Last week Pinny were taking $4,000 a go on that 1 (-120) line during the 2nd half of the Atlanta game.
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« Reply #27386 on: January 21, 2013, 01:48:59 AM »
 It's pick-em with the 9ers at 5/6 with Pinny. Not sure what you mean, but these are bettable now.
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« Reply #27387 on: January 21, 2013, 01:50:36 AM »
In an 90 minutes time the lines will have $200k limits.

These are not definitive lines.
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« Reply #27388 on: January 21, 2013, 01:51:46 AM »
Big score for the Ravens.

What a hit Pitta took on the previous play too!
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« Reply #27389 on: January 21, 2013, 01:53:04 AM »
These lines are Pinny's version of early prices at Southwell at 10am.

Yes they are available to bet on, but have no realistic meaning to the true price, which will become clear about 15 minutes after this game ends.
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