Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Fabulous reasoning hector, thank you.

We shall be all aboard shortly.

Just a reminder to others, as you alluded to it, we already have £20 @ 9/2, Ireland to win 6 Nations. 

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

The 6 nations is looming and you already have a recommendation from his Tightiness for Ireland to win it, and I agree that they are where the value is. I have been looking at a couple of sub markets for some value.

In the top try scorer market I would suggest a small bet on Tuillagi e/w will be of interest. He is the only English player that I would have in my World XV and should not get substituted at all. England have 3 home games, 2 of them against 2 of the weakest sides,  and he should have some good opportunities. The days of wingers scoring 6 or more tries in the championship each year are gone and I think 3 will get into the place money.

The next market is for the team to finish bottom. Since it became the 6 nations only 3 teams have finished last, Italy, Wales and Scotland. I think this year those 3 are the possible winners of the wooden spoon. Italy are odd on for this so I will look elsewhere for the value.

Scotland and Wales are both playing poorly and neither country got a side through to the 1/4 finals of the European Cup. In the autumn internationals Wales lost to both Samoa and Argentina, whilst Scotland capped that by losing to Tonga.

In rugby playing at home is a huge advantage, more than in almost any other sport, and so it is important to look at where the crucial fixtures will be played. Both Italy and Scotland have 3 home matches whilst Wales only have 2. Even more importantly Wales have to play both of their rivals away. In their first match Wales host Ireland and I think Ireland will win. They then go to France where they will  be big underdogs. It is likely then that Wales will  travel to Italy having lost all their International matches since the last 6 nations. If the match was played this week I don't think Italy would be bigger than 7/4 to win it. Wales have also been hit very badly by injuries this season, and having players leave to play in France has not benefited them.

With all of those things it is worth looking at the prices for both Scotland and Wales to finish last. I priced them myself at Scotland 3/1 and Wales 9/2. I was therefore astonished to see that  the bookies priced them at Scotland 100/30 and Wales 20/1. If you bet with Stan James then Wales are 25-1.

Suggest Tuillagi top try scorer £5 e/w @ 16-1 Paddy Power

Wales to finish bottom £10 @ 20-1 Betfred.

P.S To any Welsh fans I am not suggesting that Wales are the worst team, it is about value.

Very wise to add that, these matters can be a little sensitive in the valleys.

[ripple11]

Morning Mr T.

The 6 nations is looming and you already have a recommendation from his Tightiness for Ireland to win it, and I agree that they are where the value is. I have been looking at a couple of sub markets for some value.

In the top try scorer market I would suggest a small bet on Tuillagi e/w will be of interest. He is the only English player that I would have in my World XV and should not get substituted at all. England have 3 home games, 2 of them against 2 of the weakest sides,  and he should have some good opportunities. The days of wingers scoring 6 or more tries in the championship each year are gone and I think 3 will get into the place money.

The next market is for the team to finish bottom. Since it became the 6 nations only 3 teams have finished last, Italy, Wales and Scotland. I think this year those 3 are the possible winners of the wooden spoon. Italy are odd on for this so I will look elsewhere for the value.

Scotland and Wales are both playing poorly and neither country got a side through to the 1/4 finals of the European Cup. In the autumn internationals Wales lost to both Samoa and Argentina, whilst Scotland capped that by losing to Tonga.

In rugby playing at home is a huge advantage, more than in almost any other sport, and so it is important to look at where the crucial fixtures will be played. Both Italy and Scotland have 3 home matches whilst Wales only have 2. Even more importantly Wales have to play both of their rivals away. In their first match Wales host Ireland and I think Ireland will win. They then go to France where they will  be big underdogs. It is likely then that Wales will  travel to Italy having lost all their International matches since the last 6 nations. If the match was played this week I don't think Italy would be bigger than 7/4 to win it. Wales have also been hit very badly by injuries this season, and having players leave to play in France has not benefited them.

With all of those things it is worth looking at the prices for both Scotland and Wales to finish last. I priced them myself at Scotland 3/1 and Wales 9/2. I was therefore astonished to see that  the bookies priced them at Scotland 100/30 and Wales 20/1. If you bet with Stan James then Wales are 25-1.

Suggest Tuillagi top try scorer £5 e/w @ 16-1 Paddy Power

Wales to finish bottom £10 @ 20-1 Betfred.

P.S To any Welsh fans I am not suggesting that Wales are the worst team, it is about value.

Cheers Hector,us ice creams can get on with Stan .....so have taken the 25/1

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

The 6 nations is looming and you already have a recommendation from his Tightiness for Ireland to win it, and I agree that they are where the value is. I have been looking at a couple of sub markets for some value.

In the top try scorer market I would suggest a small bet on Tuillagi e/w will be of interest. He is the only English player that I would have in my World XV and should not get substituted at all. England have 3 home games, 2 of them against 2 of the weakest sides,  and he should have some good opportunities. The days of wingers scoring 6 or more tries in the championship each year are gone and I think 3 will get into the place money.

The next market is for the team to finish bottom. Since it became the 6 nations only 3 teams have finished last, Italy, Wales and Scotland. I think this year those 3 are the possible winners of the wooden spoon. Italy are odd on for this so I will look elsewhere for the value.

Scotland and Wales are both playing poorly and neither country got a side through to the 1/4 finals of the European Cup. In the autumn internationals Wales lost to both Samoa and Argentina, whilst Scotland capped that by losing to Tonga.

In rugby playing at home is a huge advantage, more than in almost any other sport, and so it is important to look at where the crucial fixtures will be played. Both Italy and Scotland have 3 home matches whilst Wales only have 2. Even more importantly Wales have to play both of their rivals away. In their first match Wales host Ireland and I think Ireland will win. They then go to France where they will  be big underdogs. It is likely then that Wales will  travel to Italy having lost all their International matches since the last 6 nations. If the match was played this week I don't think Italy would be bigger than 7/4 to win it. Wales have also been hit very badly by injuries this season, and having players leave to play in France has not benefited them.

With all of those things it is worth looking at the prices for both Scotland and Wales to finish last. I priced them myself at Scotland 3/1 and Wales 9/2. I was therefore astonished to see that  the bookies priced them at Scotland 100/30 and Wales 20/1. If you bet with Stan James then Wales are 25-1.

Suggest Tuillagi top try scorer £5 e/w @ 16-1 Paddy Power

Wales to finish bottom £10 @ 20-1 Betfred.

P.S To any Welsh fans I am not suggesting that Wales are the worst team, it is about value.

Thanks h, we are safely on board. We swerved Stan James of course, but others should consider that route.

Really like these 2 bets, they have plenty of mileage in them, & a potentially nice long sweat. 

£10 @ 20/1, Betfred, Wales to finish bottom, 6 Nations.

£5 ew @ 16/1, Paddy Power, Tuillagi to be Top Try Scorer. 

ON

Six Nations Outright 2013
To Finish Bottom
 Wales 20/1 
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 210.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 210.00


The Six Nations Top Tryscorer
02-02-2013 13:30
Top Tryscorer
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4
M Tuilagi @ 16/1

__________
 
 Single: M Tuilagi @ 16/1
2 lines at £5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential returns: £110.00
No: O/23146337/0000247

 
Total stake: £10.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £10.00

[TightEnd]

Like the Wales bet Hector, very contrarian.

[class]

Re the SF bet, is it better to lay San Fran to lock up a profit, or back the other team?

[Simon Galloway]

Backing Baltimore ftw will be the easiest hedge.

Backing Baltimore on the hcap (i.e. +5 atm) is the more complicated hedge.  It is the route I am leaning towards, but am waiting for 2 reasons.  One, waiting for the guys that actually know what they are talking about to discuss it!  And two, if they are right, the current price should drift towards the full TD so it would make sense to wait for that also.

[millidonk]

Really gonna enjoy sweating hector's Wales bet.

[Chompy]

Re the SF bet, is it better to lay San Fran to lock up a profit, or back the other team?

Same difference.

[horseplayer]

Re the SF bet, is it better to lay San Fran to lock up a profit, or back the other team?

Same difference.

what happened to them?

[BigAdz]

As previously mentioned, FWIW, I have just laid enough to get my original stake back.

My reasoning that if it loses, a great sweat has cost me nothing, but a I get almost max return/satisfaction on the win.

[horseplayer]

http://www.mrpaparazzi.com/post/21909/Gillian-Taylforth-claims-Rylan-Clark-has-been-leaving-the-house-for-X-Factor-tour-rehearsals

[Karabiner]

As previously mentioned, FWIW, I have just laid enough to get my original stake back.

My reasoning that if it loses, a great sweat has cost me nothing, but a I get almost max return/satisfaction on the win.

Same here, just saved my stake @ 1.6.

Nicely freerolling now

[Tal]

I find people like Mr Paparazzi just about the most loathsome creatures on this Earth of ours. They are the dog faeces no doormat can quite remove, no matter how bristly.

You only need to see the headlines on the right hand side of the page to get a wincing gurn explode across your face.

[horseplayer]

surely the breaking news that lucy pinder (who?) and her mate are drinking wine in the street is of interest tal