Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

The Bell bet wins!

Well done to gherkin who deserves that after I (amongst several) knocked back Tredwell!

[scotty2hatty]

Just checked, Samia is still in!

Great news, that gives me £30 I can add back in to the numbers tomorrow.

Freeroll!

Eddie looks nailed on though, Doobs spotted that early doors.

That's two different programs sir. The 4/1 EtE was fantastic.

[tikay]

Wow, you could barely make that up, so many things had to fall into place for it to get home.

If it were Online Poker, the usual folks would say it were rigged. Truth really is stranger than fiction.

Congrats Mr Gherkhin, who tipped Bell AND Tredders for a cracking double. 

[TightEnd]

More flags generally=more points. It's specifically more offensive holding penalties that is good for bears of points. I haven't looked at these teams for total penalties yet, but I'm unsure as to whether it's going to be as simple as going over (assuming they give us the teams average as a number).

the pass interference pens are good for points

the holding pens bad for points

I think the point about Boger's crew was they spotted and called the big ugly linemen holding, which of course puts teams at 1st and 15 and 2nd and 20..ie less likely to move the chains

Will do some digging this week

[Snowball]

Ding Dong

[tikay]

Just checked, Samia is still in!

Great news, that gives me £30 I can add back in to the numbers tomorrow.

Freeroll!

Eddie looks nailed on though, Doobs spotted that early doors.

That's two different programs sir. The 4/1 EtE was fantastic.

Bloody hell. I've officially lost the plot.

[bobby1]

More flags generally=more points. It's specifically more offensive holding penalties that is good for bears of points. I haven't looked at these teams for total penalties yet, but I'm unsure as to whether it's going to be as simple as going over (assuming they give us the teams average as a number).

the pass interference pens are good for points

the holding pens bad for points

I think the point about Boger's crew was they spotted and called the big ugly linemen holding, which of course puts teams at 1st and 15 and 2nd and 20..ie less likely to move the chains

Will do some digging this week

http://www.football-refs.com/


The weekly officiating crews for this season in that link, if you use ESPN box scores it gives you the pens per team in there for each individual game

[tikay]

Anyone know who Jerome Boger is?

 Well played Tighty (he must know). This man is going to be the lead referee in the Super Bowl.

 The average number of points in NFL games this year was 45.7.

 The average number of points in games where Jerome Boger's team officiated was 41.3 (second lowest in league from 17 teams of officials).

  The average total (closing line on the total) in games officiated by Jerome Boger's crew was 45.2.

 The reason the scores were lower in his games was because he called more offensive holding penalties than most of the other referees. Sometimes a lineman would get multiple penalties in situations where another referee would do nothing.

 Obviously Mr Boger will be working with a different bunch of guys to usual.

 If I was leaning towards the under this would definitely help to sway me.

 Are there other ways this information can be used that I haven't thought of?

 Appreciate any help.

 

Penalty yards Neil, strangely enough I think Tikay broke his pen yards virginity in a game Boger's officiated, the 49ers v Packers game.

Thanks to you, yes. I had never heard of such a bet prior to that, but it eased home hard-held.

What an amazing array of markets there are now, for those that really do their homework.

[Doobs]

Shouldn't we be on longest field goal Baltimore Ravens?  Can get evens with Paddy Power.  I don't know if it is best as it isn't on odds checker.  Sorry, not got time to check around.

Can't remember the reasoning last time, but the Ravens kicker has much better stats than the 49ers one (30/33 vs 29/42).  He is also 4/4 from 50 yards +, 9ers man is 2/6 for the same stat.

FWIW I just spoke to someone who is on The Eagle at 20s (currently 1/4), must try harder.

[Sheriff Fatman]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/oklahoma-city-thunder-at-los-angeles-lakers/point-spread

OKC travel to LA to face the Lakers for the third time this season. The previous 2 games have ended in OKC victories 114-108 (in OKC) and 116-101 (in LA) since then OKC have charged to the #1 spot in the NBA boasting a 34-10 record including a 15-7 road record.

They have the perfect combination of blistering offence with solid defence. They are #1 in points scored so far this season whereas Lakers are 26th in points allowed. Kevin Durant has also been on a charge of late averaging 34 points in the last 10 games and is now the leading scoring in the league, averaging 29.5 points a game over the season. In the 2 previous meetings vs the Lakers he has had 42 and 36 points, the Lakers defence just cannot handle him.

Lakers won their last game vs the Jazz and looked a better team than they had the previous 4 games where they got smashed by some pretty lowly teams. I think the market has overestimated the significance of this performance and -3 OKC is just an absurd line imo. OKC are just so much better at both ends of the floor and they don't let HCA become as much of a factor as it should/could be. Lakers are only 13-10 at home so they haven't even been dominating on their own floor.

No new injuries to report since the last time these 2 teams met, although Dwight Howard was taken from the game 2 games ago due to an ongoing shoulder injury so he is not 100%.

I bet v big for me on this game, suggest £55 OKC -3 (paddypower/ladbrokes)

Game is live on skysports at 8.30pm after Heat @ Celtics at 6pm also on skysports.

Had a dabble on this too, which will be my first ever NBA bet.

I've tried playing Fantasy Basketball to try and get me appreciate it more, and it failed (mainly due to the 3am games), so maybe betting on it will work.

GL us, and thanks for the tip.

[tikay]

Shouldn't we be on longest field goal Baltimore Ravens?  Can get evens with Paddy Power.  I don't know if it is best as it isn't on odds checker.  Sorry, not got time to check around.

Can't remember the reasoning last time, but the Ravens kicker has much better stats than the 49ers one (30/33 vs 29/42).  He is also 4/4 from 50 yards +, 9ers man is 2/6 for the same stat.

FWIW I just spoke to someone who is on The Eagle at 20s (currently 1/4), must try harder.

Oddschecker confirm, Ravens are best priced Evens.

Looks a bet to me.

Yes?

[tikay]

Amazingly, Bell is 113 not out.

Never in doubt, then......

[Doobs]

Shouldn't we be on longest field goal Baltimore Ravens?  Can get evens with Paddy Power.  I don't know if it is best as it isn't on odds checker.  Sorry, not got time to check around.

Can't remember the reasoning last time, but the Ravens kicker has much better stats than the 49ers one (30/33 vs 29/42).  He is also 4/4 from 50 yards +, 9ers man is 2/6 for the same stat.

FWIW I just spoke to someone who is on The Eagle at 20s (currently 1/4), must try harder.

Oddschecker confirm, Ravens are best priced Evens.

Looks a bet to me.

Yes?

Couldn't find it on oddschecker, must be going mad.  Looks a small bit of value, so just £20 is fine.

[Snowball]

Amazingly, Bell is 113 not out.

Never in doubt, then......

Won hard held.
If you had to price this up last night he would surely have been double figures.
The only 2 Innings he played well in England won both.

[BigAdz]

I bet the 9/2 3-0 Murray a little while ago. Looks fair to me.

 Novak has been distracted by his shoes and doesn't seem 100% at his best.

I know this is Heresy but did not one of our Elders earlier state a no bet on Murray, yet has actually backed him to win to zilch.

I know not the relative numbers that combine set betting and match price, but was this a value price that prompted the bet?

I am prepared for my time in the Castle Keep