Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

It's so cold outside and I'm so excited about Oscars that I plan a snooze so I can be all fresh as a daisy.

 Normally, obviously I would be out marching round two dozen betting shops on a Sunday morning, (some people go to church, some people go for a stroll around the park before their Sunday lunch).

 Anyway, today I can't be bothered. I should though because I have found a couple of good each-way bets. Both races are bad each-way for bookmakers but they may not realise it in both of them. In a world where bookmakers took whatever you offered them without a quibble I would have a decent each-way single on the 1st one I shall mention, a smaller each-way single on the 2nd and a nice each-way double. I would suggest maybe £20 e/w, £10 e/w and £10 e/w for Fred (I realise that adds-up to a bit). These bets should not be welcomed with open-arms and they may result in account closure or restriction, even if they don't win. The double is over 100/1 though so who cares I say.

 2.20 Towcester The race is dominated by Cayman Islands which seems a solid favourite. From the current price of around 6/4 on Betfair it could shorten and I wouldn't lay it. It is possible to make the case that these John Ferguson horses are all too short and they need to settle and learn to jump, but this is not one I am massively against. The reason I like the race each-way is the weakness against it.

 There are 6 other runners under 100/1. Donald McCain practically said his is a non-trier waiting for handicaps, Henry Daly is a terrible trainer who is overated and his Oyster Shell is typical of his - a plodding chasing type. Otterburn of the Pipe's is a mystery. Of course they lie and cheat but he did say it hasn't been the easiest to train and I could see it being a big drifter. Ballycula has one piece of form when 66/1 in a much better race and doesn't have a solid e/w feel.

 That leaves us with Caroline Keeil's Darkestbeforethedawn. Ran it's best race last time at 66/1 and is now down in trip (I have that as a positive, some think of it as a negative), and it has soft ground form.

 Could win and will definitely be thereabouts. Great e/w bet at 10/1 with VC and B365 (sadly Hills just cut it).

Thanks Neil, love the tease, we are all waiting, fingers poised, for Part Two......

Anyway, we are on Part One @ 10/1 (BetVictor), so I'll await Part Two before confirming everything. I am off to Church shortly, so I hope the price is still there when I return, soul suitably cleansed.

[Bad Beat]

 The 2nd leg is in the 2.10 at Fontwell. this race has 6 runners at below 100/1. Emma Lavelle has taken over training Firey King and it was very expensive but I seriously doubt that will be trying, Oliver Sherwood has Beforeall which just looks slow and Giles Smyly has a 20,000 bumper horse called Letemgo. He's up in trip and first time over hurdles with no market support.

 We are left with three runners. The favourite Seebright is solid as it won last time on it's debut. However that may not have been a great race and it obviously has a penalty. Probably should be odds-on in such an uncompetetive race as this but not one I'd back. The second favourite is Uncle Jimmy who had good course form. He has thrown in a couple of stinkers though including last time on his handicap debut. I can see a good case for saying he'll run well but it sems to be a short price considering the doubts.

 That leaves Royal Native. He was well fancied when unseating at Wincanton last time and if he can reproduce the 3rd on his hurdling debut he can win this.

 8/1 is a fair price with Ladbrokes, Betfred and B365.

 These are definitely each-way and not win bets and the double is best with B365 who Fred can't get on with but you should at least have the singles.

[tikay]

The 2nd leg is in the 2.10 at Fontwell. this race has 6 runners at below 100/1. Emma Lavelle has taken over training Firey King and it was very expensive but I seriously doubt that will be trying, Oliver Sherwood has beforeall which just looks slow and Giles Smyly has a 20,000 bumper horse called Letemgo. He's up in trip and first time over hurdles with no market support.

 We are left with three runners. The favourite Seebright is solid as it won last time on it's debut. However that may not have been a great race and it obviously has a penalty. Probably should be odds-on in such a bad race as this but not one I'd back. The second favourite is Uncle Jimmy who had good course form. He has thrown in a couple of stinkers though including last time on his handicap debut. I can see a good case for saying he'll run well but it sems to be a short price considering the doubts.

 That leaves Royal Native. He was well fancied when unseating at Wincanton last time and if he can reproduce the 3rd on his hurdling debut he can win this.

 8/1 is a fair price with Ladbrokes, Betfred and B365.

 These are definitely each-way and not win bets and the double is best with B365 who Fred can't get on with but you should at least have the singles.

Thanks Neil.

Part Two (EW single, £10 @ 8/1, Ladbrokes) now also on. Details to follow.

I'm unlikely to be accommodated by Bet365 for the double, but I'll go & try, then if they reject me, I'll see if anyone else will oblige.

[tikay]

Bet365 would not accept the EW Double from me. For interest, as EW Singles, they were willing to lay me £1, & £1.25, respectively.

[tikay]

I got the Double on with Ladbrokes, though missed a bit of price, I got 8/1 on each of them.

Full details of all three bets to follow shortly.

[tikay]

Bad Beat's Bookie Busting Brace

£20 EW @ 10/1, BetVictor, Darkestbeforedawn, 2.20 Towcester.

£10 EW @ 8/1, Ladbrokes, Royal Native, 2.10 Fontwell

£10 EW Double, 8/1 & 8/1, Ladbrokes, above two.


All three bets down to BadBeat.


ON



Towcester 14:20
DARKESTBEFOREDAWN
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  10/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  220.00

______


14:10 Fontwell
2013-02-24 14:10:00
 
Market: Race winner 
 
Selection: Royal Native @ 8/1 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000265
 
Placed at: 10:29 24/02/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £10.00
 
Number of lines: 2
 
Stake: £20.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £20.00

______

Selection8/1 - Royal Native

Event14:10 Fontwell

MarketRace winner
  Selection8/1 - Darkestbeforedawn

Event14:20 Towcester

MarketRace winner
 Your bets (1) Double - Each Way

2 lines at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £877.60
Time: 24/02/13 10:37
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000266


  

[tikay]

Bradford @ 8.0 DNB has to be a consideration?   

Cheeky £10?

Thanks Guy.

Thoughts, anyone?

My heart would love Bradford to do well, but my head, not so much.

Can we establish if there is any value here?

[Doobs]

Bradford @ 8.0 DNB has to be a consideration?   

Cheeky £10?

Thanks Guy.

Thoughts, anyone?

My heart would love Bradford to do well, but my head, not so much.

Can we establish if there is any value here?

Coral is a massive standout price at , best is elsewhere though Betfair is 6.2/1.  If you can get up it to £50.

[tikay]

Can barely believe I have placed a double.

I doubt we have done 5 doubles since Fred started.

You are leading me down a bad road to a dark place, Neil.

[Bad Beat]

 Bradford are definitely a big price (in the way that 5/1 is bigger than 2/1), but it doesn't neccassirily follow that they are a value price.

 Generally Fred has done well backing really big price teams in games when one team, (often Liverpool), are overated and the price reflects fashionable team against unfashionable team. I don't really think that is the case here. This match has been in the pipeline for a while, the market has had time to settle, we don't have information that nobody else has.

 Not a bet for me.

[horseplayer]

i have thought the opposition to bradford have been value in the last two stages of this competition

today i can see swansea winning 3 or 4-0 but as neil says there is nothing anybody has information wise the market does not

[Bad Beat]

 Tikay - the reason that bookies like multiple bets is that in each leg they have an overound. When you bet a single against that overound you are not going to make money unless they happen to make a rick and you have picked the selection where they have made that rick. Their overound is just theoretical - if everyone bets the rick and nobody bets on any other selection they have no profit margin. Anyway, I digress.

 If a bookie offers a footy game with an overound of 111 and you multiply it with three other similar games you are multiplying up that fat margin. You make it very hard for youself to win.

 If you can find three or four matches where the bookie you use is slow to update prices or is taking a view and the overound is 99, you will be much better off in the long run multiplying them. Sadly these situations almost never come up and you might not live long enough for variance to work in your favour.

 With these two bets you have 8/5 a place. Betfair says the prices are 6/5 and 8/5. I would argue they could be slightly shorter. If you multiply things at bigger than the correct price you will do better in the long run than if you bet singles. You will have longer losing runs and it may take a long time to back a winner, but you'll be doing better.

 You just have to see how keen the bookmakers are on taking thse bets.

[Doobs]

i have thought the opposition to bradford have been value in the last two stages of this competition

today i can see swansea winning 3 or 4-0 but as neil says there is nothing anybody has information wise the market does not

It is clear value.  is the best price without the DNB.  Must be a Sunday morning thing and nobody is properly awake.  I was maxed at £31

[horseplayer]

have been awake since 5 following a ladies golf event via a 1985 scoreboard

[Bad Beat]

 Apologies to all. You are correct Doobs. I didn't actually look at the prices, I was making a general point that all big prices DNB can't be value, but I apologise, as you were. It's value at 8/1.