Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

One other thing with the Hills offer (on the online side) is it ensures that a load of people who may not have used their account for ages now remember what their password was and have updated their credit card details to deposit for the Fly offer.

They can now snap deposit next week.

By the same token, lots of people who had forgotten they had money in their acct suddenly rediscovered it.

[outragous76]

It seems that this Hills offer is only going to be taken up by shrewdies thou, as most punters will be putting their bets on at the earliest next week and more likely on teh day of the race

Pretty sure shrewdies are going to know if they have money in an acct

[JaffaCake]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

Suggesting a max bet on Lebron James to be regular season MVP 7/4 with Bwin

Guy is absolutely killing it and it looks pretty clear just from looking at the odds that Bwin have made a mistake in the odds.

MVP looks like its basically between Lebron and Kevin Durant, the edge we have is that Miami are almost dead certs to win their conference whereas OKC aren't. This will mean that LBJ is alot more likely to be awarded the MVP award.

Lebron is averaging 27points 7assists and 8 rebounds per game and is basically carrying Miami single handedly.

Durant is averaging 29points 4.5assists and 7.5 rebounds per game but has a quality player like Westbrook playing amazing aswell so he isn't carrying his team as much as Lebron is.

Suggest maximum Lebron James Regular Season MVP 7/4 Bwin

Thanks Tom.

I take that as a Tom Max, not a Fred Max, & we have gone for £40. BWin seem to have the Durant & LeBron prices back to front.

When does the season finish, & when will the MVP be selected?

£40 @ 7/4, BWin, James LeBron, MVP.

ON

Type of bet
Bet slip ID
Date
Total stake
Possible payout
Single bet
1STHN7BFYU
2/12/2013 9:39 AM
40.00 GBP
110.00 GBP
Date   Event  Bet  Pick  Result  Odds 
6/1/2013 12:00:00 AM    NBA NBA MVP 2012-2013  Outright winner  James  ?  7/4 

Just thought i'ld flag this open bet as Lebron is now very short on betfair - and wondered if Tom or anyone else would like to comment on the merits of a partial greening - maybe to cover our stake and give us a freeroll ?

Obviously a great bet - just wondered what those in the know would consider the risks to be ?  injury etc ?

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/basketball/market?id=1.107273154&exp=e

The best suggestion was perfectly timed, LBJ was just starting to play at a higher level than Durant having been pretty neck and neck all season. Since then he's gone on a tear and posted ridic numbers, while Durant has gone slightly back if anything. Lebron has just been voted Eastern Conf player of the Month for Feb, as he has been every month this season. Durant didn't win it (Western conf POM), and has only won it once, in the first month of the season.

Lebron does have a knee injury (in case you're betting on tonight's Heat game) that will be treated and is not known how serious, and obv there's some chance he'll get injured and miss the rest of the season or something, but guess there's some chance we get hit by a bus before we collect, and I can't think of a way of greening that.

Cliffs: Let it ride

[tikay]

Tomorrow is 3/1 Dynaste for the RSA by the way.

...and, notwithstanding the upcoming debate on whether Priority Bets etc should count in Fred's accounts, should we take that price? If so, should we go for the Max offered, which will probably be £30 again, I assume?

[tikay]

....and another Cheltenham Offer. I imagine we will get one from every Bookie.

This one is from BetFred.

"Place an ante-post bet of £10 or more on Cheltenham & receive a free £10 bet to use during the Festival"

So we should...........?

[Simon Galloway]

.....place an extra tenner on anything that we already have ante-post where that price is still available with BaldFred.

[Bad Beat]

Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.

 That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.

 On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.

 It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.

 Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.

 Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.

[tikay]

.....place an extra tenner on anything that we already have ante-post where that price is still available with BaldFred.

OK Mr Soon-To-Be-Deposed-By-Me Cheltenham Algorithm King, here are our existing bets, though I don't know offhand what prices Mr Done currently goes.

Pick one.....& if BetFred go same or better, we will plunge. Well mini-plunge, anyway.

Gold Cup

Long Run, £25 @ 7/1

Captain Chris, £10 EW @ 25/1


Supreme Novices Hurdle

Jezki, £20 @ 8/1


Ryanair

Albertas Run, £10 EW @ 25/1, Non-Runner Free Bet. (?)

Triumph Hurdle

Irish Saint, £10 EW @ 14/1, Non-Runner No Bet.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Mail deBievre £10 EW @ 16/1


Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Utopia des Bordes £10 EW @ 10/1.

[TightEnd]

Potentially, what is unique about this current test mach?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/88362


great stuff on Pujara by the way.what a talent.

[Doobs]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

[tikay]

Thanks Doobs.

Just FYI, & so Inspecter Mere & others can scrutinise, here are the T & C's to the BetFred Offer.


Cheltenham Festival Offers
Existing customers – Stake £10 Get £10
Stake a £10 bet on the Cheltenham Festival antepost market and we will give you a free £10 bet to spend during the Festival to be credited on the first day (Tuesday March 12th).

Bet Now

Terms & Conditions
1.Customers must stake a minimum of £10 on any 2013 Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post market between 25/02/13 and 10/03/13 inclusive, to qualify.
2.The £10 must be placed as one win single or each-way single bet, it cannot be the accumulation of more than one bet.
3.Offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer. The cumulative odds of this bet must be at Evens (2.0) or greater.
4.Your free bet will be available in your account on Tuesday 12th March (the first day of the Festival)
5.Internet and mobile customers only.
6.All free bets are valid for 30 days after issue. Any free bet amount left unused after 30 days will be removed.
7.Your free bet must be placed on any Cheltenham Festival market.
8.One free bet per customer, per household only. In the case of a customer opening more than one Betfred.com account, we reserve the right to suspend and close duplicate accounts, and make void any bets placed.
9.Free bet stake is not included in any returns and is non-withdrawable.
10.Betfred.com Remote Betting rules apply.
11.Betfred.com reserves the right to withhold any bonus payment if it believes that the promotion has been abused and/or where the terms of the offer are not fulfilled, or any irregular betting patterns are found. The decision of the Betfred.com management is final.
12.Betfred.com reserves the right to withdraw or amend this offer at any time, for any reason and without prior notice.
13.General Betfred.com rules apply


New customers – Stake £10 Get £20
Make your first bet of £10 on the Cheltenham Festival antepost market and we will give you a £20 free bet.

[tikay]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer.  

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price.  

The deed is done.

Who owns this bet - Mr Channing or Mr Barraclough?

PS - One of the best judges I know contacted me only this morning & advised me to lump on Long Run. Can't be beaten, apparently. Like Watford, last Friday.

We have (a further) £10 @ 13/2, BetFred, Long Run to win the Gold Cup. NRNB, & comes with a free £10 bet, selection still to be advised.

ON

Bet placedBet placed, its reference is 98/100
Bet ref: 98/100 £10.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
2013 Betfred Gold Cup
Outright Nrnb
 Long Run 13/2  
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 75.00

Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 75.00

[Simon Galloway]

Give the bet to whoever first tipped up Long Run for the original bet.

I will consult my algorithm for the free tenner.

[tikay]

Give the bet to whoever first tipped up Long Run for the original bet.

I will consult my algorithm for the free tenner.

Agreed.

And the owner of the original bet is.....surprise surprise.....

Doobsy!

Click to see full-size image.

[bobby1]

On the phone so cant cut n paste the quotes but re the Hills offer, another bonus of the HF offer and the others they are promising this week is respend. I guess they will enhance the price of one horse for each day at the festival. That way you are getting turnover in at a fraction over the current correct price but giving yourself a chance to have a lot of clients revisiting their shops/ accounts again on each day next week to collect, some will reinvest their day to day business each day. So if the horses get beaten they have the stakes and if they win they will turn a % of the returns into stakes again next week.to be honest whatever they have laid today will be a fraction of the turnover on the race come the off.

50 quid sounds like an ok figure to me, sometimes need to remember a big % of punters would not bet in those amounts so are getting what they wanted anyway.