Tips for Tikay

[tigger37]

Hi there,

I'm a 'filthy' arber.  In fact, I run a team of them (20+).

I rarely post regarding our business but we also offer a 'bet placement service' for clients.

Feel free to get in touch if you need us

David Maudlin

pokerandbetting@gmail.com
Twitter: t1gger37

Hope you're all well - even the ones that call me 'filthy'

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Here is a summary of the cricket scores for top little batter as at the end of Indias 1st innings of the 2nd Test.

Dhoni         268
Pujara        256
Vijay          183
Kohli          141
Tendulkar   101

Will be a decent sweat, I think it is a 4 Test series.

Our bet on Tuilagi to be the top try scorer in the 6 nations has a big match this Saturday. There are 2 people with 2 trys so far, Hogg and Cuthbert, so Tuilagi to rampage against the pasta boys would be nice. We have him each way at 16-1 so 2 tries may get paid and 3 almost certainly will and may even be top.

As far as the bets for the teams to win the tournament and to come last, well the less said the better. Ireland who we have to win are in  the wooden spoon dogfight and Wales, who we have to come bottom think they have a chance of winning the whole thing.

Can I suggest you ask for CV's to get new rugby experts.

Top stuff hector, Mr Pujara is right back in it now.

We have 16/1 - what price do you think he would be now, if the Market still existed? 3/1, 4/1 tops? Whatever, we have a Proper Pujara sweat on again, & hopefuly will recover losses we sustained from the last Series, when he never got a game & Ladbrokes run away with our dosh.

GL Tuilagi this weekend, we have a chance there, too.

The 6N winners & wooden spoonerers? It happens, no complaints here. We are still profitable overall on RU - just! - though nothing like RL, where we have a ROI of 72% over 33 bets. Which we like.

[The Camel]

Hi there,

I'm a 'filthy' arber.  In fact, I run a team of them (20+).

I rarely post regarding our business but we also offer a 'bet placement service' for clients.

Feel free to get in touch if you need us

David Maudlin

pokerandbetting@gmail.com
Twitter: t1gger37

Hope you're all well - even the ones that call me 'filthy'

One of my best friends is a filthy arber too.

He knows what I think of his profession.

[tigger37]

Hi there,

I'm a 'filthy' arber.  In fact, I run a team of them (20+).

I rarely post regarding our business but we also offer a 'bet placement service' for clients.

Feel free to get in touch if you need us

David Maudlin

pokerandbetting@gmail.com
Twitter: t1gger37

Hope you're all well - even the ones that call me 'filthy'

One of my best friends is a filthy arber too.

He knows what I think of his profession.

Maybe you'd like to take advantage of our bet placement service Keith?  Might stop us arbing

[bobby1]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

[redarmi]

Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.

 That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.

 On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.

 It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.

 Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.

 Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.

Obviously you are correct but I think it is almost certainly a +EV move for Hills.  To be honest I am amazed more firms dont lead with price marketing like this as it is smart and cost effective.  Even things like it being mentioned on this thread have value for Hills and they also will no doubt get the opportunity to have that wanker Graham Sharpe on the TV next week saying how they laid HF to lose £100m in £50 bets.  I think the interesting thing is the last line in your post Neil.  Surely if there are so many arbers then HF should become very weak in the Betfair market today yet it isn't.  By my reading of the BF charts he has been layed for about £20k today all at 3.55/3.6.  Who has come out of the woodwork today wanting £20k on the horse?  Hills are the only people I can think of that might want to do that today......very weird as simple economics would suggest that the smart thing to do if you were an arber today would be to lay £2k of Hurrican Fly early then bet it back later when all the arbers are trying to lay the horse at any cost for their free bet.  Certainly would have more respect for someone that had actually thought that through than someone walking around 20 shops to get a grand at 3/1 with Hills.

[action man]

7/1 long run available here

[moonandback]

#1
the latest AP poll puts our Gonzaga Bulldogs as the number 1 team in america this should mean we will get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament which starts in 2 weeks. fwiw if betfair had a market on this i would be laying @ 9 or 10 to one and freerolling as while i think they have a decent chance there are a lot of teams that could win and we could struggle against teams with very quick guards such as michigan,miami or louisville.

[bobby1]

7/1 long run available here

you don't like it Rick? I am on now but thanks for the offer.

[tikay]

#1
the latest AP poll puts our Gonzaga Bulldogs as the number 1 team in america this should mean we will get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament which starts in 2 weeks. fwiw if betfair had a market on this i would be laying @ 9 or 10 to one and freerolling as while i think they have a decent chance there are a lot of teams that could win and we could struggle against teams with very quick guards such as michigan,miami or louisville.

Excellent stuff!

# 1, ooh. And we have 33/1.

Top stuff Moony.

[Karabiner]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

The thing that puts me off Long Run personally is the shape that it makes to jump it's fences. I think it's a miracle that it hasn't fallen (to my knowledge) in any 'chases when you combine that shape with a jockey who is likely to present it at it's fences sub-optimally compared to the best.
Oh and it's taken to donning the sheepskin earmuffs now too...

[tikay]

B365 are doing their usual, bet £50 prematch on the ManUre v Real Madrid game and then bet £50 in play promotion.

Any thoughts how to structure a worthwhile bet? (if any?)

Me? No idea, but bumped for comment by others.

Thanks Mr Class.

[tikay]

While you should obviously be having these bets such as the Fly at 3./1, do we really think they should be counted for Fred's P/L?

I mean, the bookmaker knows they are giving away equity and we are taking the free moniez.

But it isn't REAL gambling, is it?

(Just thinking out loud, don't expect anyone to agree!)

Hi Keith.

So far, you are right - nobody agreed.

1) Personally, I do not see why they should not be counted.

2) I'm not fussed either way, I have no agenda whatsoever, & will go with the flow.

3) In general, Fred followers like us to be succesful, so they have incentive to Post Promo Offers. No incentive, & we lose that information flow, from which we all benefit.

4) I'm really not sure if, overall, we are profitable on Promos. I doubt there is much in it, if anything, I think we may be small losers. But very close either way at a guess.

[bobby1]

Betfred are still 13/2 Long Run.  You can get 7/1 with paddy power, but the offer means betfred is the no brainer. 

Even without thos offer, I still think either is an astonishing price.  You have Long Run who has run to a very high level of form numerous times, each time with the same amateur on board.  Bob's Worth who has done it once.  Silvianico Conti who got close and Sir Des Champs who finished last in a 4 way bunch finish (yeah they are all absolute top class!?), and beat a sick possible non stayer a couple of lengths.  People have short memories.

Should obviously take the Dynaste price. 

I totally agree with Doobs re Long Run, seems to have been ignored due to the hype surrounding the others at the head of the market.

The thing that puts me off Long Run personally is the shape that it makes to jump it's fences. I think it's a miracle that it hasn't fallen (to my knowledge) in any 'chases when you combine that shape with a jockey who is likely to present it at it's fences sub-optimally compared to the best.
Oh and it's taken to donning the sheepskin earmuffs now too...

I do see your point Ralph and we are deffo giving a away a few pounds in the jockey stakes but for a past GC winner that just won the KG he seems to be pretty friendless against a set of up and coming horses that have yet to achieve what LR has. I think Doobs made those points a while back tbf. Re cheekpieces, well they might improve him.

[tikay]

I suppose the counter to that would be Fred places a few bets purely for fun or as a New Tipster Welcome Bonus, so taking these little equity offers is just yinging that yang.

I hadn't considered that, though, and am interested to hear the vox populari.

Ooh, vox populari.......