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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330326 times)
McGlashan
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« Reply #32445 on: March 05, 2013, 03:46:34 PM »

Also iirc there was some Chess World Candidates chatter iit. Unibet have priced up Carlsen at 1.65, the Marathonbet price has came into 1.533 and on Betfair there's £5 to back @1.7 and £1285@1.67. Personally it wouldn't surprise me if he kicks off at an even lower price.  
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AndrewT
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« Reply #32446 on: March 05, 2013, 03:50:06 PM »

feel the terrestial point is important

Murray could win Wimbledon, if he does it will be on BBC

England should win the Ashes. Alistair Cook is one of the World's great batsmen, going to be an all time great, captain in what used to be a mass viewing sport

Has no chance in SPOTY as so few watch it on Sky

England could win the Rugby Grand Slam.Thats terrestial. The Lions might win in Australia with Robshaw captain. but its on Sky and few will see it to vote for it

Find it difficult to see beyond Murray at the mo

I'm not entirely sure the terrestrial TV thing is important. Calzaghe won the year he beat Kessler and that was on Setanta (fewer viewers than Sky). Cavendish won for the TdF which, whilst on terrestrial, is tucked away on ITV4 during the day when people are at work - few people actually watched it. And whilst she's obv not indicative of trends, I don't think a nation crowded round their TVs to watch Zara Philips win whatever it is she won the year she got it.

It's the greater attention that certain events get that is important, rather than whether it's on BBC/ITV. The Ashes will be a massive thing - doesn't matter they're on Sky.
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McGlashan
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« Reply #32447 on: March 05, 2013, 04:02:50 PM »



I think waiting until someone scores or half time (whichever is first) to bet the overs might be a smart move.

Obviously don't know what the price is going to be, but our analysis suggests goals could well be undervalued.
[/quote]

I agree with you there Camel, even if the game takes 30+ mins to take off the 2.5 line will look appealing. Also if Real score first we could be in for a goal fest.
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Tal
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« Reply #32448 on: March 05, 2013, 04:13:30 PM »

Also iirc there was some Chess World Candidates chatter iit. Unibet have priced up Carlsen at 1.65, the Marathonbet price has came into 1.533 and on Betfair there's £5 to back @1.7 and £1285@1.67. Personally it wouldn't surprise me if he kicks off at an even lower price.  

I'm avoiding paranoia but am waiting to see if any of the big hitters put up a market (am expecting Ladbrokes and Paddy Power to have markets, as they have in the past) before I post where I think the value is.

Suffice it to say, if Carlsen goes towards 1/2, I would be strongly looking at other people as there must be value elsewhere in the field.

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« Reply #32449 on: March 05, 2013, 04:14:00 PM »

feel the terrestial point is important

Murray could win Wimbledon, if he does it will be on BBC

England should win the Ashes. Alistair Cook is one of the World's great batsmen, going to be an all time great, captain in what used to be a mass viewing sport

Has no chance in SPOTY as so few watch it on Sky

England could win the Rugby Grand Slam.Thats terrestial. The Lions might win in Australia with Robshaw captain. but its on Sky and few will see it to vote for it

Find it difficult to see beyond Murray at the mo

I'm not entirely sure the terrestrial TV thing is important. Calzaghe won the year he beat Kessler and that was on Setanta (fewer viewers than Sky). Cavendish won for the TdF which, whilst on terrestrial, is tucked away on ITV4 during the day when people are at work - few people actually watched it. And whilst she's obv not indicative of trends, I don't think a nation crowded round their TVs to watch Zara Philips win whatever it is she won the year she got it.

It's the greater attention that certain events get that is important, rather than whether it's on BBC/ITV. The Ashes will be a massive thing - doesn't matter they're on Sky.


Agreed, was typing something earlier on same lines after Tightys post.

What exactly do we think IS the demographic of SPOTY voters, do none of them have SkySports?!

I would have thought the ever growing army of darts followers, as proven on here, are prime voting types.
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Nico29
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« Reply #32450 on: March 05, 2013, 04:14:49 PM »

Not sure I get this waiting for the first goal to be scored stuff, if anything i'd expect the market as usual then to overreact and makes overs very prohibitive, it's not like it won't be in the price once the first goal goes in that they'll most likely be a few more.

Maybe I guess if we are going for the world's fair in goals I could see the point somewhat, but surely +3.5 will get very short if it's b4 half-time.

Personally always like to go against the norm, like in cricket lay total runs after a six until the market calms, and sim with when a goal gets scored for overs, obv doesn't work great when you get two in extremely quick succession but that's pretty rare.

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redarmi
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« Reply #32451 on: March 05, 2013, 04:29:41 PM »

I can't run the numbers right now because I am at the paedetricians (thin brag) but when I get home I will try and run some scenarios so we can test what we think goals should be after a certain point.
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BigAdz
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« Reply #32452 on: March 05, 2013, 04:36:16 PM »

I can't run the numbers right now because I am at the paedetricians (thin brag) but when I get home I will try and run some scenarios so we can test what we think goals should be after a certain point.


Why is he bragging about getting his toenails polished?
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #32453 on: March 05, 2013, 04:50:43 PM »

I can't run the numbers right now because I am at the paedetricians (thin brag) but when I get home I will try and run some scenarios so we can test what we think goals should be after a certain point.


Why is he bragging about getting his toenails polished?

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tikay
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« Reply #32454 on: March 05, 2013, 05:11:53 PM »

Blimey, Fred's on fire today.

I gotta log off at 6pm, so any Account bets for tonight will need to be placed before then.

As to the Bet365 offer on tonight, I first have to see if they will accommodate me at all. If they do, we willl be backing "the same bet" twice, as Andrew &, I think Redarmi, suggested earlier.

We just have to decide what the Bet should be now.......
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« Reply #32455 on: March 05, 2013, 05:20:02 PM »

for those would care/can get on hills doing another priority price at 6.30pm tonight on tonights game
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claypole
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« Reply #32456 on: March 05, 2013, 05:42:40 PM »

Sorry - so much I haven't read on Fred today, however are we supporting Man Utd? Corals are 11/5 - even with Jones out I cannot see how it's not a must bet with the £50 free bet based on facts alone this season. I think the market has overreacted to the two wins v Barcelona - clearly impacted by AC defeat and I can't have Man U much bigger than 13/8 / 7/4 - remember we play on the best Leage in the world and Madrids away form all year has been patchy. 2/1s with 365 effectively meaning £50 at - struggling to see a better value bet
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TL900
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« Reply #32457 on: March 05, 2013, 05:48:23 PM »

penalty shootout 20/1 with paddypower 14/1 other places, thoughts?
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« Reply #32458 on: March 05, 2013, 05:52:07 PM »

penalty shootout 20/1 with paddypower 14/1 other places, thoughts?

I think away goals come into ET, so hard to play for pens when actually in ET. I think it would be the last thing Man Utd want, imo.

I don't think there will be loads and loads of goals tonight and 1-1 might be a decent bet, especially when 1-1 is 7's.

Worth a fiver tbh
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tikay
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« Reply #32459 on: March 05, 2013, 05:57:27 PM »


The Bet365 Offer.

Fred will have to swerve this, as it has only just occurred to me that as I am working tonight, I will not be in a position to place the "In-Play" portion of the bet.
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