Tips for Tikay

[EvilPie]

do they pay First past the post?

Did it win without the wee fella in the saddle? I'd switched off as soon as he fell off to be honest.

Do they sometimes do that then? Never even considered it before.
 

[tikay]

Xcfcymt(4;5;?4.;((?

Internet problems here, as in "no Internet" for last hour or more.

Had intended to have a small interest on Villa, but my Internet failed before I got on. Jeez, what value that looks now.......

Had not been able to action Neil's Patent/Trixie/ dubs/trebs yet either.

[tikay]

Snakebite wins 6-1 with one of his worst performances of the year.
I think we need some more pictures of his lovely locks Tikay.

BOOM!

Lovely stuff, thank you.

A gallery of Snakebite photos tomorrow.

50/1 outright must look pretty good now.......

[tikay]

Liverpool equalise!

[EvilPie]

Xcfcymt(4;5;?4.;((?

Internet problems here, as in "no Internet" for last hour or more.

Had intended to have a small interest on Villa, but my Internet failed before I got on. Jeez, what value that looks now.......

Had not been able to action Neil's Patent/Trixie/ dubs/trebs yet either.

I thought this might be a problem so assumed that we'd be going halves.

Just call it £150 seeing as your a friend. Send to usual account please.

[tikay]

do they pay First past the post?

Did it win without the wee fella in the saddle? I'd switched off as soon as he fell off to be honest.

Do they sometimes do that then? Never even considered it before.
 

There, a real rarity, Russell proper whooshed.

[tikay]

Xcfcymt(4;5;?4.;((?

Internet problems here, as in "no Internet" for last hour or more.

Had intended to have a small interest on Villa, but my Internet failed before I got on. Jeez, what value that looks now.......

Had not been able to action Neil's Patent/Trixie/ dubs/trebs yet either.

I thought this might be a problem so assumed that we'd be going halves.

Just call it £150 seeing as your a friend. Send to usual account please.

With friends like you.......

[EvilPie]

do they pay First past the post?

Did it win without the wee fella in the saddle? I'd switched off as soon as he fell off to be honest.

Do they sometimes do that then? Never even considered it before.
 

There, a real rarity, Russell proper whooshed.

Had to check it wasn't April yet before I posted

[Doobs]

Greetings from Thailand Fred

Had anybody discussed todays game. I think Villa at 9/2 is too big. Villa are coming off back to back wins and showing improvement - and Liverpool the loss at Southampton. Lambert has a 4-0 record v Rogers.  The game is priced up effectively the same as yesterdays Sunderland game; that just can't be a fair reflection.

Reccomend 40 Villa DNB.  Best price is 3/1 with B365, we get slightly better if we have 30 Villa 9/2 and 10 draw at . If we can't get on VC takes the 3/1 365

Shaun!

Was it you that gave us Walsall to go up/down/middle?.......

Need some feedback on this one, Fred has a shocking record trying to get the right side of Liverpool.

Where is Doobs, The Voice Of Reason, when we need him? Visiting in-laws for Easter, I fancy.

Nope not guilty on Walsall....did suggest Norwich at , yiu swerved well. I'm nursing a massive hangover, and I thought as Trigg put a nag up I'd get involved.

Yep, get the Liverpool thing; they clearly had turned a corner, however I just think the result at Southampton could impact them and like the Lambert stat, obv sets his teams up well against Rogers brand of football.  Also, their slim hopes of fourth have gone - and I like the way Villa have played last two games. These markes are all pretty efficient obv, however I think Villa win this game more the price suggests.  Asian Syndicates still in love Liverpool.

Let's see what Doobs and Tighty think

I am on Triggs EW - let's go go go.

See you soon when I'm home

Not qualified Malaysia man

I did a shift last night, got back in at 4am and started researching the boat race, thats how sad I am.

There's no hope for me in trying to get Liverpool right

FWIW I wouldn't be against Liverpool today.

Last 5 times I have opposed Liverpool I have lost.  It was easy money for a while.

FYP Moran

[tikay]

I just tried to have an each-way patent. I didn't get too much on and I don't really blame them as it's pretty filthy. I can't really get any more on so you guys may as well have it. You'll have to search the prices but I'll tell you the worst prices I would take. The shape of the races is not the only reason I am betting these, but I'm too busy to give a big explanation.

 2.10 Towcester Tracking Time (slightly weaker of three bets). would take 9/2 each-way.

 4.10 Towcester Count Guido Derra (my strongest of three, would be a great single). would take 3/1 each-way.

 4.35 Plumpton Titus Mills (looks like a match with the favourite, would be a good single). would take 3/1 wach-way.

 Either a trixie or doubles each of the bottom with the top and a stronger double the bottom two, plus a treble to give maximum pain.

 If anyone I have done business with before can get me any I'd be delighted.

Suggest maxes all round.

My Internet problem caused me to miss the first leg. How good do I run?

Need to decide what to do with the remaining two now.

Probably have a £25 EW single on both, and a £25 EW double?

Can still beat those prices.

[Tal]

Cambridge 5/2 in an illiquid betfair market.

Can any team be 5/2 in the Boat Race? Two strong crews and Oxford deservedly favourites.

I'll let someone impartial decide on that.

I was thinking along similar lines, although I'm equally impartial to you.

Oxford are slightly heavier, Cambridge slightly taller on average, but I'm slightly surprised to see them using one of their heaviest man in the stroke seat (bags of experience and presumably the best technical rower, but not the normal seat for a guy who's 6'7" and over 17st).

The biggest differential may well be in the cox seat though (http://theboatrace.org/men/compare-blue-boat/2013/cox).  Cambridge have a guy who's pretty much grown up on the Tideway by the looks of things, whilst Oxford have a foreigner who appears to have very little experience of this particular course.  That knowledge might prove to be the difference in a close race as it may well come down to who can find the fastest water.

Throw in the vaguaries of the course, the luck of the toss, etc and I'm struggling to see how the prices are so distorted towards Oxford.

Recommend a modest value bet on Cambridge at 14/5 on Betfair or 11/4 with Stan James.

Thanks Curtis.

It used to be the case that the toss was crucial in the Boat Race, presumably that is still the case, as the Thames is much the same shape as it always was......

We might just have a dabble, just £10 or £20, but deffo interested, thanks.

EDIT - Tighty poured cold water on my enthusiasm!

Sorry if I've missed later comments, but am out and about.

Oxford stroke is a terrific oarsman. Beating the German 8 eight months after the Olympics isn't as impressive as it sounds. It is impressive, just not dramatically so.

Plenty of world cup rowers in both blue boats. Toss can be important if you have a certain strategy because of whether you need Middlesex or Surrey. Suspect Oxford will want the big bend (Surrey, IIRC) and will push hard early without the inside rail and then use the bend against Cambridge. Could be a long race if the light blues lose the toss and don't get ¾ length lead by then.

[Doobs]

I just tried to have an each-way patent. I didn't get too much on and I don't really blame them as it's pretty filthy. I can't really get any more on so you guys may as well have it. You'll have to search the prices but I'll tell you the worst prices I would take. The shape of the races is not the only reason I am betting these, but I'm too busy to give a big explanation.

 2.10 Towcester Tracking Time (slightly weaker of three bets). would take 9/2 each-way.

 4.10 Towcester Count Guido Derra (my strongest of three, would be a great single). would take 3/1 each-way.

 4.35 Plumpton Titus Mills (looks like a match with the favourite, would be a good single). would take 3/1 wach-way.

 Either a trixie or doubles each of the bottom with the top and a stronger double the bottom two, plus a treble to give maximum pain.

 If anyone I have done business with before can get me any I'd be delighted.

Suggest maxes all round.

My Internet problem caused me to miss the first leg. How good do I run?

Need to decide what to do with the remaining two now.

Probably have a £25 EW single on both, and a £25 EW double?

Can still beat those prices.

Looks good to me, and you can give the Clarkson smug grin to this who got on earlier.  Think you killed the Internet earlier, Blonde was hopeless for a while for me.

[tikay]

I just tried to have an each-way patent. I didn't get too much on and I don't really blame them as it's pretty filthy. I can't really get any more on so you guys may as well have it. You'll have to search the prices but I'll tell you the worst prices I would take. The shape of the races is not the only reason I am betting these, but I'm too busy to give a big explanation.

 2.10 Towcester Tracking Time (slightly weaker of three bets). would take 9/2 each-way.

 4.10 Towcester Count Guido Derra (my strongest of three, would be a great single). would take 3/1 each-way.

 4.35 Plumpton Titus Mills (looks like a match with the favourite, would be a good single). would take 3/1 wach-way.

 Either a trixie or doubles each of the bottom with the top and a stronger double the bottom two, plus a treble to give maximum pain.

 If anyone I have done business with before can get me any I'd be delighted.

Suggest maxes all round.

My Internet problem caused me to miss the first leg. How good do I run?

Need to decide what to do with the remaining two now.

Probably have a £25 EW single on both, and a £25 EW double?

Can still beat those prices.

Looks good to me, and you can give the Clarkson smug grin to this who got on earlier.  Think you killed the Internet earlier, Blonde was hopeless for a while for me.

Pretty sure blonde crashed, at least for some of us.

Will get those last two of Neil's on.

Smug grin already in place, but could get smugger.

[tikay]

I just tried to have an each-way patent. I didn't get too much on and I don't really blame them as it's pretty filthy. I can't really get any more on so you guys may as well have it. You'll have to search the prices but I'll tell you the worst prices I would take. The shape of the races is not the only reason I am betting these, but I'm too busy to give a big explanation.

 2.10 Towcester Tracking Time (slightly weaker of three bets). would take 9/2 each-way.

 4.10 Towcester Count Guido Derra (my strongest of three, would be a great single). would take 3/1 each-way.

 4.35 Plumpton Titus Mills (looks like a match with the favourite, would be a good single). would take 3/1 wach-way.

 Either a trixie or doubles each of the bottom with the top and a stronger double the bottom two, plus a treble to give maximum pain.

 If anyone I have done business with before can get me any I'd be delighted.

Suggest maxes all round.

We missed the first one Neil (Unseated Rider) so we have the following for the last two races, based upon your comments that these were the stronger of the three suggestions, & were worthy singles, too. One winner would cover us.

What a way to end March this could be, £150 down the swanee, or a kings ransom......We have a bit of profit in the bank already today, thanks to Snowy, & we saved a few bob due to internet problems, so we are playing the rush a bit. 

We have......

£25 EW single @ 4/1, BetFred, Count Guido Teiro, 4.10 Towcester.

£25 EW single @ 9/2, Betfred, Titus Mills, 4.35 Plumpers.

£25 EW double, prices & selections as above, Betfred.

ON


114/117,118,119
Bet ref: 114/117 £25.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Towcester 16:10
Outright Betting
EW 1/5 1,2,3 Count Guido Deiro 4/1 
Total stake £ 50.00
Estimated return £ 170.00

Bet ref: 114/118 £25.00 Single
Market Selection Price Hcp
Plumpton 16:35
Outright Betting
EW 1/5 1,2,3 Titus Mills 9/2 
Total stake £ 50.00
Estimated return £ 185.00

Bet ref: 114/119 £25.00 Double
Market Selection Price Hcp
Towcester 16:10
Outright Betting
EW 1/5 1,2,3 Count Guido Deiro 4/1 
Plumpton 16:35
Outright Betting
EW 1/5 1,2,3 Titus Mills 9/2 
Total stake £ 50.00
Estimated return £ 773.00

Full stake £ 150.00
Full estimated return £ 1,128.00

[bobby1]

Just a quick thing re The Masters.

I would deffo recommend not betting now until the week of the event as we mentioned earlier the place terms and prices will be more competitive with the books then. We will also know the draw and likely weather over the 4 splits for the first 2 rounds. There have been a couple of times recently where one morning was much colder than the other one meaning the course plays much longer and the ball travels less distance. When Mickelson won in 2010 for example I think Nick Watney was the only player to make the top ten from one side of the draw and he had to shoot 65 on the last day to do it.

The one possible exception tho relates a little to BigAdz Westwood bet. This weeks course is set up to play Augusta ish and the form is a good guide. Oosty should really have won both comps last year, so if Adz does like Westy at the price that is close to BF now then it would probably make sense to bet him if he does go close to winning tonight if the firms are slow to cut the fixed odds Masters price, same with a few others near the top of the board, tho would prob not be good to bet each way 4 places when there will be plenty of 6 places come the off.