Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

There is a non runner so only 8 run. This means only 2 place no?

8 runners = 3 places.

Part of the risk - as Dubai pointed out - is if another horse withdraws, then it would be 2 places.

[horseplayer]

But obviously you chose to ignore the place parts of the bet when saying that, given they would be higher ev than the %s i quoted lol. Shock

I quoted %s chances of each event occuring in relation to the price we are taking. Which is by far the simplest way of explaining bets to people

Ie taking 4/1 about a 4.6/1 chance means we are taking 20% about a realistic 17.8% chance, so therefore are taking 2.2% of the worst of it. Notice i quoted the place bets in the exact same way when I could have expressed them differently also

Jayo we are taking 4/1, its 5/1 betfair so we have a rough expectation of -3.4% on the win bet. Ie for every £100 win bet we have, longterm we should lose £3.40

However at 1/5 odds top 3, we are getting 4/5  the place, on betfair its roughly 1/2 - we have a rough expectation of +11.1% on the place bet, longterm we win £11.10 for every £100 we place.

?

i dont think adam is trying to disagree just does not understand the bets

[Tal]

Dubai's in and firing, then.



Yesterday's problems are a thing of the past.

[Dubai]

I shouldnt have bothering quoting the monetary amounts, just was trying to make it simple to explain

We obv lose more £££ on the win bet and win more ££ on the place bet but the ratios are exactly the same yes?

[adnmdv]

Yes, I don't understand why backing a 5 should be 6 shot = £-3.40 per £100, nor 1.8 should be 1.5 is only £11.10 per £100.

[Dubai]

Cos its the easiest way to explain to people in terms of % chances of occurance.

I could have said we lose £60 on the profit of the win outcome 17.8% of the time, whilst winning £30 on the place outcome 66.67% of the time but it doesnt really look as appealing to an untrained eye

Both equate to around +9%ev, one just is easier to explain.

[bobby1]

I never knew either, I must live in my own little world, oblivious to all. Thanks horsey.

Have Betfair taken over Blue Square's Sports Book? Just the Sports Book, or Poker as well?

As to Blue Square......

My Blue Square Account has been migrated to Betfair (I logged in & got it confirmed after I saw horsey's Post), & the correct (ex Blue Square) balance is now in Betfair, however, it has NOT been consolidated with my Betfair Funds, it is in a seperate Account.

I had to confirm my Blue Square Username & Password, which I did, & it said (words to the effect), "your Blue Square & Betfair passwords are now the same, congrats, happy betting, bla bla".  

My Username on BlueSquare was DIFFERENT to my Username on Betfair.

So I now seem to have TWO Betfair Accounts, accessible by using different Usernames. I can freely log in & out of BOTH Accounts.

Presumably, these will shortly be consolidated? Makes no sense to me to have two completely different Accounts & lumps of cash on the same site.

a great way for Betshambles to make it look like they have recruited XX amount of new accounts tho. Growth is booming etc etc.

[adnmdv]

Cos its the easiest way to explain to people in terms of % chances of occurance.

I could have said we lose £60 on the profit of the win outcome 17.8% of the time, whilst winning £30 on the place outcome 66.67% of the time but it doesnt really look as appealing to an untrained eye

Both equate to around +9%ev, one just is easier to explain.

Right, ok. I interpreted it as you saying that 5, 6 was -3.4% ev and 1.8, 1.5 was 11.1% ev given you said there was a loss of £3.40 per £100. There was no ignoring going on, I just interpreted it wrong.

[Dubai]

Its my fault for putting £ signs in when shouldnt have, and if expressing it in monetary terms should have wrote different numbers anyway. Was rushing to explain in simple terms but obv the figures all equate to the same overall ev, just differ in ways of expressing it

[Marky147]

I'm just happy that I got the gist of what was going on, albeit only just

[redarmi]

I never knew either, I must live in my own little world, oblivious to all. Thanks horsey.

Have Betfair taken over Blue Square's Sports Book? Just the Sports Book, or Poker as well?

As to Blue Square......

My Blue Square Account has been migrated to Betfair (I logged in & got it confirmed after I saw horsey's Post), & the correct (ex Blue Square) balance is now in Betfair, however, it has NOT been consolidated with my Betfair Funds, it is in a seperate Account.

I had to confirm my Blue Square Username & Password, which I did, & it said (words to the effect), "your Blue Square & Betfair passwords are now the same, congrats, happy betting, bla bla".  

My Username on BlueSquare was DIFFERENT to my Username on Betfair.

So I now seem to have TWO Betfair Accounts, accessible by using different Usernames. I can freely log in & out of BOTH Accounts.

Presumably, these will shortly be consolidated? Makes no sense to me to have two completely different Accounts & lumps of cash on the same site.

a great way for Betshambles to make it look like they have recruited XX amount of new accounts tho. Growth is booming etc etc.

I'm properly gutted about this.  Bluesq was the only account I still had access to in my own name!!!!!!

[Bad Beat]

 What happened there Stuart? Even my mum's account was on 5%.

[tikay]

I won't be able to place any bets between 6pm & 1am this evening, as I'm working.

Daily Report for today will be a bit late, very busy today.

I may manage to be around at 4.10pm though.....

I'm glad, with hindsight, that I placed one of those 3 bets with BetFred & only two with Wm Hill, rather than all three with WH, even though I missed the BOG thing on Jayo, as I'm now a bit worried about getting either Account restricted, I use both a lot, especially Hills, for my off-thread stuff. Anyway, what is done is done, we are on now, so good luck everyone!

[mondatoo]

What price would we be tempted to get involved in Bayern at ?

[EvilPie]

Thanks for the explanation Dave. Sorry it raised so many other questions

I guess the one thing you rely on is the accuracy of the betfair market? If that was out would this change our EV?

Also how on earth did you manage to notice this? Do you just check all of the 8 runner races to see if there's a potential discrepancy then check Betfair?