Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

I'm looking at some chess markets atm, but have yet to come to anything definite. Probably won't be recommending anything so relax, Adz

Would someone help me with something in the interim, please?
How do I work out the overround on a market? Is it a case of adding up the percentage chances of success?

evs

3-1

3-1

100/2 + 100/4 + 100/4 =100

evs

2-1

3-1

100/2 + 100/3 + 100/4 = 108

[tikay]

Tighty

I'm happy for people to comment I just like the bet

Remember westy doesn't need to win so choking no issue for this bet. As for him outplaying 5 of those guys I don't think that's a problem. Langer, Cabrera, will not be top 5, Scott has the chance to fall to bits.

I've no problem if Fred doesn't get on, just throwing it out there

Thanks Guy, noted. We will continue to ruminate a while yet.

I think its an ok bet, I'll just never back Westwood again as I've had too many disappointments.

I've had a go at working out the score required to get into the top five (ie what he will have to score to get a top 5 spot). In the last 8 years he has achieved that score 8/28 overall, 3/12 in the last 2 rounds and 1/6 in the last round (last year).

So his performance seems to decline in the last round but he does still seem to be about a 5-1 shot and better than that if he produces his early round form due to a little less pressure.

THAT is what I was looking for! Thanks. We may take a small interest based on that. I just needed to understand the logic.

[Tal]

I'm looking at some chess markets atm, but have yet to come to anything definite. Probably won't be recommending anything so relax, Adz

Would someone help me with something in the interim, please?
How do I work out the overround on a market? Is it a case of adding up the percentage chances of success?

evs

3-1

3-1

100/2 + 100/4 + 100/4 =100

evs

2-1

3-1

100/2 + 100/3 + 100/4 = 108

Well that was remarkably straightforward. Thank you, sir

[tikay]

If backing people off the pace you obviously need someone capable of shooting low, sounds like common sense but some of the players games just aren't setup to shoot 65 etc.

Nick Watney is leading the masters for the last two rounds, a terrible +6 opening round sums his game up round here, always seems to throw a bad one in but is one of only a handful of people capable of birding most holes. He shot 68 yesterday including 4 bogeys!!! I'm not for one minute suggesting he is going to win and shoot a 63/64. But he definitely is capable of going low

I recommend @259/1win, @12/1 top 5. Thoughts?

This was thrown out for feedback, in contrast to Dubs normal "stick £35,000 on NOW" sorta thing, and he has "Back Blind" status.

Any thoughts?

I have done the bet for myself, (small money) and am happy to keep it off thread, but if there is any warmth, Fred can have my bets, and the price is reserved.

[fatcatstu]

Some big swinging & swonging is possible today, & I'd deffo not want Sneddy @ 5/2. Happy at 25/1 though.

I got him e/w at 35/1 on Paddy power. big sweat today!!

Im also tempted to smack a bit of money e/w on Tim Clark, who shot -5 yesterday, and but for a horror 2nd round would be right in and amongst it. Think he can shoot low and get into the top 5 for us.

[tikay]

I'm looking at some chess markets atm, but have yet to come to anything definite. Probably won't be recommending anything so relax, Adz

Would someone help me with something in the interim, please?
How do I work out the overround on a market? Is it a case of adding up the percentage chances of success?

evs

3-1

3-1

100/2 + 100/4 + 100/4 =100

evs

2-1

3-1

100/2 + 100/3 + 100/4 = 108

Well that was remarkably straightforward. Thank you, sir

Yup, dead easy. Alternatively, add the two odds then make them a %.

3/1 = 4 = 25%

4/1 = 5 = 20%

1/1 = 2 = 50%

Etc.

[tikay]

Some big swinging & swonging is possible today, & I'd deffo not want Sneddy @ 5/2. Happy at 25/1 though.

I got him e/w at 35/1 on Paddy power. big sweat today!!

Im also tempted to smack a bit of money e/w on Tim Clark, who shot -5 yesterday, and but for a horror 2nd round would be right in and amongst it. Think he can shoot low and get into the top 5 for us.

Good luck!

[tikay]

There is a finish top 5 market on betfair. Westwood is 5.5. There are plenty of chokers and old guys ahead, and westy under no pressure this far back. Seems like a bet to me. Suggest £20

He is also 50s to win. Suggest £2 for the sweat and chance of a good day

Thanks Guy.

doubleup found some logic to prove the price, so we are on now.

£20 @ 5.6, Betfair, Top 5 Finish, Lee Westwood, Masters.

ON

Confirmation to follow.

EDIT - CONFIRMED

ON


Bet ID:     26454959640
Event:     Top 5 Finish
Bet placed at:     14-Apr-13 13:21
   Market
type    Selection    Bid
type    Bet
taken       Odds
req.    Stake
(£)    Liability
(£)      Odds
matched    
    O     Lee Westwood    Back    14-Apr-13
13:21           5.6    20.00         5.6    

[tikay]

Newcastle 0 - Sunderland 2...........

De Canio "did a Mourinho", the full on the knees slide jobbie.

[The Camel]

Newcastle 0 - Sunderland 2...........

De Canio "did a Mourinho", the full on the knees slide jobbie.

There's a lot I don't like about Di Canio.

But got to love his passion.

[tikay]

3-0!

[Tal]

They're having their own goal of the week competition.

Has the other half of Sunderland grown to like him, yet?

[horseplayer]

sjk now portraying di canio as a character and what the league needs

amazing what a game can do

[Tal]

sjk now portraying di canio as a character and what the league needs

amazing what a game can do

Give it time. They'll be demonising him again in a few weeks

[Chompy]

Any interest in Angel Cabrera @ 150-1 eachy-ways?

Bearing in mind he won it in 2009 and was prominent going into the final day last year?

Decent opening round in Humble yesterday innit.

Reposted for potential rebuff list purposes.

Obv I backed him at [insert biggest price] and greened out at [insert lowest price] for a pleasing book.