Tips for Tikay

[adnmdv]

I think I made a mistake. I was so keen to say that we should take them all that I forgot some of the key points of that post.

 I started that one off by saying that the reason we can "know" that we are having value in these bets and therefore we should take them all blind is that the Cheltenham market is very mature and with perfect knowledge how can it be wrong?

 There are several reasons a market might not be perfect and in these situations we should be careful with priority offers.

 One of those reasons might be that the market is very new. It has not been beaten into shape by hundreds of thousands of annoying robots and 23 sharp minds, (sorry Betfair would assure you they still have plenty of pro punters knocking these prices into shape and trading millions to get positions either way).

 The horse that was backed at 7/1 recently was in a market that had traded less than 10% of what the ante-post Cheltenham markets had done at the time we did our bets. It was possible that once the price had been traded a bit more strongly, (with 99% of that trading happening on the day), it might drift or be backed massively. Using the thin, young Betfair market there to tell us blindly if we had a good bet, without recourse to the opinions of a judge like Chompy was wrong, whereas on the Champion Hurdle we don't need to bother consulting because the mature Betfair market has done all the work.


 It is possible occasionally that the mature Betfair market may have new news that is about to hit it, and we could, on consultation, realise that a priority price is not great because of that. It is unlikely that someone on this thread could know about Tiger spraining a wrist or being almost disqualified before the rest of the market but it is possible that the clever people here could be able to respond better than the market to the implications of that. A very mature market like the Gold Cup could change completely if it rained 20mills overnight and a priority price on the firm-ground loving 2nd favourite could be bad value as we "know" that that must surely drift once the market has really absorped the new information.

 It's possible that the mature Betfair market may contain an inherent bias. In the Masters players like Woods, Mickelson and Rory are massively overbet by the punters. The proportion of bets does not look like 25% of the money on the 3/1 chance and 8% on the 12/1 chances, it is more likely to look like 45% on the 3/1 chance and 14% on the 12/1 chances. Bookmakers are prepared to run a lopsided book because they like to gamble for a result and it is also a good way to gain new customers in a competitive market. However they may now push the prices of the three favourites in a bit because they know they'll still get backed.

 It's my old thing about the price that will split the handle against the one that will split the result. In the case of Tiger I think the 6/1 just HAD to be a great bet. In retrospect I don't think anyone who had that bet can complain. Tiger went off 4/1 and we had a big edge against a very mature Betfair market. Personally I took all the Hills priority prices and also the Ladbrokes enhancements.

 The ones that that are annoying me now are the 14/1 Mickelson and the 12/1 Rory. At the time Rory was "only" 11/1 on Betfair and I took 12/1. Mickelson was trading 12-12.5 and I took 14/1.  While it is generally true that Betfair can be your guide in established mature markets and if you can beat it you should bet blind I don't believe in either of these  I was getting enough. It is possible that there was an inherent favourite bias in the Betfair market and that the true price of all three at the off should have been slightly bigger. After all Tiger traded at 5.6-5.7 for 48-hours yet on the off he was 4.9-5.0. Did the market really learn new information about the chance of Tiger Woods winning in that time or was that all just weight of money, much of which, by definition, must be from recreational punters who had 2 days to bet him at 9/2 and who could have got 6/1 if they were shrewd?
 

 

<big post>

It might not be the case if the shrewds are already on for max stake (I'm not sure if this is true in events such as these or not) but in theory, if a price shortens in an efficient liquid market, then whilst the *actual* probability of the event doesn't change you are getting more information. Again, assuming an efficient market, it's probably overconfident to not reassess your probabilities as the odds change, unless you're Tony Bloom or something.

If Liverpool shorten up lots does that mean that their chance of winning has increased? Not necessarily (assuming there's no new team news), but it means that the ones with lots of money (i.e. the smart ones) think that their probability should be higher than it was.

[bobby1]

How do we feel about completely separating the priority offer bets from the regular thread fund?

Neil says we should bet them all if they meet certain criteria but I think it was clear at the weekend that the amount of cash Tony put on these priority bets altered the way that other suggestions were dealt with. Doobs can rightly be a bit miffed that his selections were not placed in full before the event and his selections during the event were not actioned ( the biggest mistake that fixed odds firms make imo is not understanding the place part of the prices when they are simply copying BF win market in running and this is more relevant the further into the event) did we kinda shut up shop due to the amount we had in play pre game on priority selections?

If we go down that route then the priority offers have a roll of their own and don't even appear in the actual thread roll numbers. It's like running two systems at once I guess.

The one issue there might be that we place a priority bet and someone actually wants to put that selection up against their name on the thread roll too. Maybe we can find a way to make that bit work.

[edgascoigne]

Anybody been watching this IPL match?

[tikay]

How do we feel about completely separating the priority offer bets from the regular thread fund?

Neil says we should bet them all if they meet certain criteria but I think it was clear at the weekend that the amount of cash Tony put on these priority bets altered the way that other suggestions were dealt with. Doobs can rightly be a bit miffed that his selections were not placed in full before the event and his selections during the event were not actioned ( the biggest mistake that fixed odds firms make imo is not understanding the place part of the prices when they are simply copying BF win market in running and this is more relevant the further into the event) did we kinda shut up shop due to the amount we had in play pre game on priority selections?

If we go down that route then the priority offers have a roll of their own and don't even appear in the actual thread roll numbers. It's like running two systems at once I guess.

The one issue there might be that we place a priority bet and someone actually wants to put that selection up against their name on the thread roll too. Maybe we can find a way to make that bit work.

I really like that.

I would need to see if, & how, Mere would handle that on the Spready, of course. I could set a new one up for him if he is struggling.

It would also clearly show us how they perform, financially.

I'm wondering how much? - £500 would be adequate, I assume, as we are rarely able to bet more than £100 a pop, usually more like £25 to £50.

[JaffaCake]

Some interesting posts from some of the thread elders over the past 24 hours.

One point I would pick up is Phil's frustration with Doobs's mathematical picks taking up a lot of a 'portfolio'. Surely if someone suggests 4 bets, as thread don Tikay would be right to ask which is the best bet of these and go with that one. Also it makes sense to say x, y and z are Doobs's mathematical picks, anyone got any info on these/any fancies that makes one a better bet than the others? I don't think u can 'blame' Doobs for putting up a number of bets, but as the boss Tikay can put on all, none or some of them, and maybe backing them all gives too much exposure to one person's thinking.

Lastly, Phil if u disagree with a bet put up by another elder, which presumably doesn't happen that often, but means the bet is already on before canvassing opinion, I don't think anyone would be offended if u said 'I know you've backed x on Doobs's advice Tony but I really fancy laying that horse for this reason' and allow a discussion post bet but before the event (or even Tony to insta change the bet so Fred has no exposure to it because of the diff of opinion). With Betfair, we can always get out of a bet at probably a 1%ish loss if  we decide it possibly wasn't the best bet.

I have to admit whenever anyone includes phrases like 'I haven't even looked at this in detail' or the like I put that post in the category of the guys who come on saying why not back my team today, they're defo gonna win, not sure of the price'. They may well be right but there's far better researched bets I can take from here so I read em and keep an eye on the result but don't back em.

I have really enjoyed the mathematical basis stuff, it's not something I've really considered before, and while it spots +ev bets, combining it with knowledge sounds an even better idea

[rfgqqabc]

do opalfruits have a market?

lovely preview tal

Is that a nickname for a firm?

it was a "joke" on marathon/snickers theme

albeit a very poor one

Entirely my fault.

You whooshed me good and proper.

Even I remember opal fruits Tal!

Whilst I understand the desire to improve Fred, the posts over the last day or so have seemed pretty heated. Fred is a fantastic achievement for blonde imo, and I've certainly had a ball being involved and learnt absolutely loads. I'm glad BadBeat said if you want to lay off your probably betting too big, because I've been bottling a lay of Doncaster for myself for a while now, but I am slightly more exposed than Fred.

With regards to priority prices and these offers, we saw some fantastic ones at Cheltenham, but we also saw TL900 have several shot down over the months with the basketball ones because they didn't beat betfair prices etc etc. We need to be careful not to follow these blind as was the thought after Cheltenham, but it is only through making mistakes and evaluation that we will learn. I felt like I overstaked at the weekend also, but I had been downswinging which will obviously not help in that respect. For anyone else involved in Doncaster, SPIN make us 83.75-84.25 on the points index whereas Bouremouth are 82.75-83.25 so with both being 6/4 I have no intention of laying now, shame we didn't beat Coventry/Carlisle, but we have outperformed as a club and to say the reasoning behind the bet was the investment plans that went awry due to the managerial change, I think we can be happy and say we have run well so far, but this means nothing just yet.

[TightEnd]

Anybody been watching this IPL match?

KKR threw it away

IPL fast moving into my "double squiggle, beer money only" category

First year I have felt like that, just seems so blatant this year that we don't have the best of the info available to others

[bobby1]

How do we feel about completely separating the priority offer bets from the regular thread fund?

Neil says we should bet them all if they meet certain criteria but I think it was clear at the weekend that the amount of cash Tony put on these priority bets altered the way that other suggestions were dealt with. Doobs can rightly be a bit miffed that his selections were not placed in full before the event and his selections during the event were not actioned ( the biggest mistake that fixed odds firms make imo is not understanding the place part of the prices when they are simply copying BF win market in running and this is more relevant the further into the event) did we kinda shut up shop due to the amount we had in play pre game on priority selections?

If we go down that route then the priority offers have a roll of their own and don't even appear in the actual thread roll numbers. It's like running two systems at once I guess.

The one issue there might be that we place a priority bet and someone actually wants to put that selection up against their name on the thread roll too. Maybe we can find a way to make that bit work.

I really like that.

I would need to see if, & how, Mere would handle that on the Spready, of course. I could set a new one up for him if he is struggling.

It would also clearly show us how they perform, financially.

I'm wondering how much? - £500 would be adequate, I assume, as we are rarely able to bet more than £100 a pop, usually more like £25 to £50.

Are you are running a notional £3000 roll at the moment?, it wouldn't really make any difference if the roll was £2000 and you diverted £1000 to be the priority offer roll, it might be a little thin to just use a £500 roll. Or just dip in and find a few more quid and make a separate £1000 roll for the priority bets.

The only issue then is if you just keep taking the max you can on every priority bet, you, as in it is your money in the real roll have to make sure the priority bets don't become a factor when you are having regular thread bets suggested. I think that happened this week and I think you posted pre Chelters about being uncomfortable about the amount you could lose if it all went pear shaped. The other option is you just take what you can on the priority selections and trade them back on BF to drip small amounts into that roll thru arbing, tho I know that probably isn't going to get the thumbs up on thread.

[Dubai]

Lay the win parts off, they are nearly always the worst part of the bet even if +ev and are also higher variance than the place part

[horseplayer]

all i will add is if thread is just max betting or betting the priority offers to higher stakes than its usual bets then the accounts will be restricted/closed even quicker than they have been.

[Dubai]

True true

[The Camel]

How do we feel about completely separating the priority offer bets from the regular thread fund?

Neil says we should bet them all if they meet certain criteria but I think it was clear at the weekend that the amount of cash Tony put on these priority bets altered the way that other suggestions were dealt with. Doobs can rightly be a bit miffed that his selections were not placed in full before the event and his selections during the event were not actioned ( the biggest mistake that fixed odds firms make imo is not understanding the place part of the prices when they are simply copying BF win market in running and this is more relevant the further into the event) did we kinda shut up shop due to the amount we had in play pre game on priority selections?

If we go down that route then the priority offers have a roll of their own and don't even appear in the actual thread roll numbers. It's like running two systems at once I guess.

The one issue there might be that we place a priority bet and someone actually wants to put that selection up against their name on the thread roll too. Maybe we can find a way to make that bit work.

I suggested this a couple of months ago.

Definitely the way forward imo.

[Dubai]

What difference does it make other than some weird pyschological one?? It's still the same pot of money so why would anyone care if its on a different spreadsheet etc??

[Graham C]

What difference does it make other than some weird pyscholigical one?? It's still the same pot of money so why would anyone care if its on a different spreadsheet etc??

I was going to ask this but decided not too but whilst it's mentioned, why do bets "off account" happen too?  The idea of the thread was to get Tikay back into sports betting but you've got him keeping different sets of accounts and betting off thread.  Money is money at the end of the day, what difference does it matter what pot it comes out of?  Why not put the off thread bets down to Tikay?

[Dubai]

No idea. I never understood why every bet needed to be attributed to a poster either, I know they like to do it for accounting purposes and so they can spot obvious weak points, like Eso Kral on league 1 football for example. The other thing I think the thread and gamblers as a whole is reflect too much upon losers and not put the same post analysis into winners, when realistically variance is usually the difference anyway. We've had some great losing bets and some terrible winning ones, but can't remember the last time I read anyone say we took a bad position on a bet that had already won