Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Re Saturday Masters bets

I can't see how anyone could put on a bet* when the Tiger DQd stramash was going on.


*Other than the redarmi convoluted arb laying Tiger on betfair and backing him on VC not to be DQd

stramash.

Good word.

[tikay]

I was concerned about over-exposure to a single Event.

Guilty as charged. We had punted over £500, a lot for me, & for Fred, seems perfectly natural to me to be a little cautious.

If, however, an Elder had come on & said "you gotta do this, it is great value" I would, Restrictions permitted, have got on.

There were just so many coming through, & I'm not sure everyone was aware of what we had on who. That was why I repeatedly Posted our "Masters Book", 6 or 7 times I think.

I think both outrageous & Greg Hill stuck up bets on Sunday morning, too, & I was not so keen to get on without good resoning, but reasoning & warmth did appear, so we got on.

It was a weird spot, too. We were already several hundo down - fine - but lets not forget, Snedeker was co-leader, two shots clear of the rest (bar Angel), & we had £25 on the nose at 25/1 from months ago. If that one held, & I really thought it would......

All just straws in the wind really, but it was not the easiest of mornings. 

[horseplayer]

Bit of a flyer but price is to big

Since the start of march barnsley have conceded at least 6 goals from set pieces (might be 7)
According to all team news i can find they are really struggling for any fit defenders tonight. You could argue this can only help but will probably just cause more mayhem to the backline.

Derby only really have one threat from set pieces. Step forward Jake Buxton

He has 5 league goals this season which is ok/good for a centre back. However he missed 14 weeks around the new year period so 5 goals is actually very good.

I have noted that his price pre injury was generally a solid 25-1 shot for first scorer. Since his return he has been some 28-1 and even the occasional 33-1. However tonight vcbet and betfred go 40-1 and i have no idea why. Other firms are as low as 20-1 with a few offering 28-1.

Derby dont have a lot to play for but Buxton has signed a new contract this week (possible small positive) and there is a very small chance he might take a penalty (derby missed there last three taken sammon rumored to be dropped) he would not be the most likely name but
a few fans forums have suggested he might end up on them by default.

suggest the 3 bets below combined stake of £20 leave the dividing upto you tikay (all with vcbet)



Barnsley v Derby County
Jake Buxton
(1st Goalscorer)
Odds: 40/1

Barnsley v Derby County
Jake Buxton
(Anytime Goal Scorer)
Odds: 14/1


Barnsley v Derby County
Jake Buxton
(Player To Score 2 Or More)
Odds: 150/1

[nirvana]

Surely the amount or exposure on an event like the masters is irrelevant.

Even I can see that the only +EV thing to do must be to consider each bet you're about to place on it's individual merits

nb Press on Arsenal - no way they don't score 3 tonight

[Dubai]

Funnily I was working out whether betting the individual scores or taking the 12/5 was a better way of backing Arsenal to score 3

[tikay]

Seperate 'Roll for Priority Offers?

I've discussed this with Mere, who puts as much work & care into this as anyone, & he had some relevant views.

We already list them seperately, all Priority Offers are already bundled into a single "owner", FRED.

We have, shall we say, flexible bankroll management, so it is unclear quite what it achieves, though he can easily add an extra Spready. It is just one for me really, not to let large exposure to one Event stop me getting on Priority Stuff.

I can also report, every week or two, or after major Events, how the "FRED" (Priority Account) portion of the spready is doing.

In truth, & very surprisingly, not many people actually view the Spready, for which I Post a clickable link daily. We often see "what have we got on x?", when in fact the info is Posted daily.

Part Two of the Priority Offer thing is that, often, instead of a single selection (i.e., Jack Dexter"), it is "we pay 6 places", & so in those cases, (it arose at Cheltenham, where we did very well, & Aintree & Augusta, not so much), a degree of skill is required. Some might argue that those who stick their neck on the block in those spots deserve some credit for their selections. 

Do Selections need to be Owned?

Yes, very much so, imo. Folks LIKE to get a winner, to get a good ROI, they do. And why not? It's half the fun.

Noise about bad losers, but not good winners?

The Daily Reports NEVER identify the owners of losing bets, & ALWAYS names the owners of winners.

But I think the point was we should make more noise about GOOD bets - whether they win or lose. Fair comment, & noted.

[Snowball]

Does anyone know where Hills take their stats for the IPL, I was on under 37.5 Boundaries, Cricinfo have it as 37 but it's been given as a loser?

Adding the boundaries together from the scoreboard on cricinfo, I make it 38

I counted it 4 times as 19-18 between the end of the 19th over and 5minutes after it finished but your right, showing as 38 now.

[tikay]

Surely the amount or exposure on an event like the masters is irrelevant.

Even I can see that the only +EV thing to do must be to consider each bet you're about to place on it's individual merits
nb Press on Arsenal - no way they don't score 3 tonight

Yes - "in a vacuum" as the boyz say.

The reality is slightly different.  When I am in a potential £500 hole in a single event, whilst I agree with the logic, it takes a bit of courage to keep the faith & pile on more money.  Maybe I just lost my nerve, but that WAS in there somewhere.

It actually begs the question that the thread, & Fund, needs more than one pair of hands, & includes someone with a clearer mind than mine. Often, my job, or other stuff, inhibits me from having the time available to consider things properly, too. I'm pretty sure if I had more time I'd be better. Or at least less worse.

[The Camel]

Seperate 'Roll for Priority Offers?

I've discussed this with Mere, who puts as much work & care into this as anyone, & he had some relevant views.

We already list them seperately, all Priority Offers are already bundled into a single "owner", FRED.

We have, shall we say, flexible bankroll management, so it is unclear quite what it achieves, though he can easily add an extra Spready. It is just one for me really, not to let large exposure to one Event stop me getting on Priority Stuff.

I can also report, every week or two, or after major Events, how the "FRED" (Priority Account) portion of the spready is doing.

In truth, & very surprisingly, not many people actually view the Spready, for which I Post a clickable link daily. We often see "what have we got on x?", when in fact the info is Posted daily.

Part Two of the Priority Offer thing is that, often, instead of a single selection (i.e., Jack Dexter"), it is "we pay 6 places", & so in those cases, (it arose at Cheltenham, where we did very well, & Aintree & Augusta, not so much), a degree of skill is required. Some might argue that those who stick their neck on the block in those spots deserve some credit for their selections. 

Do Selections need to be Owned?

Yes, very much so, imo. Folks LIKE to get a winner, to get a good ROI, they do. And why not? It's half the fun.

Noise about bad losers, but not good winners?

The Daily Reports NEVER identify the owners of losing bets, & ALWAYS names the owners of winners.

But I think the point was we should make more noise about GOOD bets - whether they win or lose. Fair comment, & noted.

Although it can be put down to variance a little, the fact is the Supreme Novice 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 was one the most amazing offers a bookmaker has ever given us. Especially since bets were pretty much unrestricted.

The 1/4 first 6 in National and Masters were good, but definitely meh in comparison.

[tikay]

Bit of a flyer but price is to big

Since the start of march barnsley have conceded at least 6 goals from set pieces (might be 7)
According to all team news i can find they are really struggling for any fit defenders tonight. You could argue this can only help but will probably just cause more mayhem to the backline.

Derby only really have one threat from set pieces. Step forward Jake Buxton

He has 5 league goals this season which is ok/good for a centre back. However he missed 14 weeks around the new year period so 5 goals is actually very good.

I have noted that his price pre injury was generally a solid 25-1 shot for first scorer. Since his return he has been some 28-1 and even the occasional 33-1. However tonight vcbet and betfred go 40-1 and i have no idea why. Other firms are as low as 20-1 with a few offering 28-1.

Derby dont have a lot to play for but Buxton has signed a new contract this week (possible small positive) and there is a very small chance he might take a penalty (derby missed there last three taken sammon rumored to be dropped) he would not be the most likely name but
a few fans forums have suggested he might end up on them by default.

suggest the 3 bets below combined stake of £20 leave the dividing upto you tikay (all with vcbet)



Barnsley v Derby County
Jake Buxton
(1st Goalscorer)
Odds: 40/1

Barnsley v Derby County
Jake Buxton
(Anytime Goal Scorer)
Odds: 14/1


Barnsley v Derby County
Jake Buxton
(Player To Score 2 Or More)
Odds: 150/1

Thanks horsey, we are on.

We have, ALL with VC Bet), on Jake Buxton, on the Derby-Barnsley game, the following....

£2 @ 150/1, to score 2 or more.

£4 @ 40/1, FGS

£14 @ 14/1, ANYTIME

ON

You have successfully placed 3 bet(s)

Total possible returns 676.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Barnsley v Derby County
 
Jake Buxton
(Player To Score 2 Or More)
 
Odds: 150/1
Stake: 2.00
 
Possible Return:  302.00
 
Barnsley v Derby County
 
Jake Buxton
(1st Goalscorer)
 
Odds: 40/1
Stake: 4.00
 
Possible Return:  164.00
 
Barnsley v Derby County
 
Jake Buxton
(Anytime Goal Scorer)
 
Odds: 14/1
Stake: 14.00
 
Possible Return:  210.00

[tikay]

Reminder - we are involved in the Peterborough - Brighton game tonight, too.

We badly want Brighton to win.

And we want Danny Swanson to score for Peterborough.

Between those, we might get there.

Some weird stats on the game, from BBC Sport.....

• Brighton are chasing a sixth successive victory over Peterborough.

• Posh have scored just two goals in five league meetings against the Sussex club.

• Peterborough are on the longest current unbeaten streak in the Championship of nine games (W4, D5), yet find themselves just one place and one point above the relegation zone with four to play.

• No club has lost more home games in this division than the 10 of Posh, and they've only managed two clean sheets at London Road.

• Fifth-placed Brighton are on a five-match run without defeat (W2, D3), and are two points better off than fellow play-off challengers Nottingham Forest, who are in seventh.



 The Seagulls have drawn an unequalled 17 of their 42 league games, and are the only club with as few as nine defeats in this division, with the exception of leaders Cardiff, who've also lost nine.

• Gus Poyet has not seen his side lose a league game from a winning position this season, but neither has he witnessed them winning one from a losing predicament.

[tikay]

Seperate 'Roll for Priority Offers?

I've discussed this with Mere, who puts as much work & care into this as anyone, & he had some relevant views.

We already list them seperately, all Priority Offers are already bundled into a single "owner", FRED.

We have, shall we say, flexible bankroll management, so it is unclear quite what it achieves, though he can easily add an extra Spready. It is just one for me really, not to let large exposure to one Event stop me getting on Priority Stuff.

I can also report, every week or two, or after major Events, how the "FRED" (Priority Account) portion of the spready is doing.

In truth, & very surprisingly, not many people actually view the Spready, for which I Post a clickable link daily. We often see "what have we got on x?", when in fact the info is Posted daily.

Part Two of the Priority Offer thing is that, often, instead of a single selection (i.e., Jack Dexter"), it is "we pay 6 places", & so in those cases, (it arose at Cheltenham, where we did very well, & Aintree & Augusta, not so much), a degree of skill is required. Some might argue that those who stick their neck on the block in those spots deserve some credit for their selections. 

Do Selections need to be Owned?

Yes, very much so, imo. Folks LIKE to get a winner, to get a good ROI, they do. And why not? It's half the fun.

Noise about bad losers, but not good winners?

The Daily Reports NEVER identify the owners of losing bets, & ALWAYS names the owners of winners.

But I think the point was we should make more noise about GOOD bets - whether they win or lose. Fair comment, & noted.

Although it can be put down to variance a little, the fact is the Supreme Novice 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 was one the most amazing offers a bookmaker has ever given us. Especially since bets were pretty much unrestricted.

The 1/4 first 6 in National and Masters were good, but definitely meh in comparison.

At the time, I certainly never realised that, nor did many of us, I suspect.

But we sure filled our boots, & got paid for it too. Busted the 'Roll Rules, but it panned out just great. Sometimes rules are made for bending. I was reluctant though, & my arse was squeaking something shocking. 

[tikay]

I gotta go do some stuff now, including honing my considerable PLO skills by winning a few bob.

 

[The Camel]

Seperate 'Roll for Priority Offers?

I've discussed this with Mere, who puts as much work & care into this as anyone, & he had some relevant views.

We already list them seperately, all Priority Offers are already bundled into a single "owner", FRED.

We have, shall we say, flexible bankroll management, so it is unclear quite what it achieves, though he can easily add an extra Spready. It is just one for me really, not to let large exposure to one Event stop me getting on Priority Stuff.

I can also report, every week or two, or after major Events, how the "FRED" (Priority Account) portion of the spready is doing.

In truth, & very surprisingly, not many people actually view the Spready, for which I Post a clickable link daily. We often see "what have we got on x?", when in fact the info is Posted daily.

Part Two of the Priority Offer thing is that, often, instead of a single selection (i.e., Jack Dexter"), it is "we pay 6 places", & so in those cases, (it arose at Cheltenham, where we did very well, & Aintree & Augusta, not so much), a degree of skill is required. Some might argue that those who stick their neck on the block in those spots deserve some credit for their selections. 

Do Selections need to be Owned?

Yes, very much so, imo. Folks LIKE to get a winner, to get a good ROI, they do. And why not? It's half the fun.

Noise about bad losers, but not good winners?

The Daily Reports NEVER identify the owners of losing bets, & ALWAYS names the owners of winners.

But I think the point was we should make more noise about GOOD bets - whether they win or lose. Fair comment, & noted.

Although it can be put down to variance a little, the fact is the Supreme Novice 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 was one the most amazing offers a bookmaker has ever given us. Especially since bets were pretty much unrestricted.

The 1/4 first 6 in National and Masters were good, but definitely meh in comparison.

At the time, I certainly never realised that, nor did many of us, I suspect.

But we sure filled our boots, & got paid for it too. Busted the 'Roll Rules, but it panned out just great. Sometimes rules are made for bending. I was reluctant though, & my arse was squeaking something shocking. 

I'm still in a state of shock they didn't pull it when it became obvious there were going to be effectively only 8 runners.

How Fred hasn't had a monkey each way on My Tent or Yours at 5/2 or 9/4 I'll never know.

[The Camel]

I gotta go do some stuff now, including honing my considerable PLO skills by winning a few bob.

 

You live a pretty deece life imo.