Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Fairplay, solid performance once he got up and started pushing him around a bit.

[Junior Senior]

Even tho Notts has open races on Mondays no bookies generally price it up. You will have to back it on bf, or sp or take a price when the show is out

Thanks, will take a look and post on Monday then

[Bazzaboy]

I have Rose 58-56 after 6 rounds.

[ACE2M]

Even tho Notts has open races on Mondays no bookies generally price it up. You will have to back it on bf, or sp or take a price when the show is out

Thanks, will take a look and post on Monday then

is it bags or begs? probably won't get a show on begs.

If its worth it then get down the track.

[Bazzaboy]

That was a fucking awful stoppage.

Rose stops Alcine in the last round.

Edit: having seen it again it wasn't that bad a stoppage. Bit early but Alcine's tank had emptied very quickly and probably wouldn't have seen the final bell regardless.

[Junior Senior]

Even tho Notts has open races on Mondays no bookies generally price it up. You will have to back it on bf, or sp or take a price when the show is out

Thanks, will take a look and post on Monday then

is it bags or begs? probably won't get a show on begs.

If its worth it then get down the track.

What's the difference? Know nothing about dogs

[tikay]

I've just finished work in Notts, & will be driving back to London now.

I have no idea what Fred had today, or how we got on, but normal service resumes on Sunday.

Shame we missed that Bazza Boxing Bet, but these things happen, I got "Access Denied" due to a software Filter here at DTD. 

[maldini32]

UFC on Fox 7 is tomorrow evening/Sunday morning and I've a few recommendations.

Benson Henderson is a short as 3/10 which when looked at in isolation is unlikely to get anyone too excited but with a little bit of analysis we can find a better bet. Henderson has won 6 in a row and, interestingly, all 6 wins have came via decision - this has came since he has started competing at the very top of the sport.

Henderson is quickly turning into the lightweight version of GSP in that he has many tools with which to control his fights without being able to finish the fighters at the top of the division.

Melendez won’t really bring anything new to the table for Henderson and he should be able to dictate this fight with both his striking and wrestling. Whilst it will likely be an exciting fight, Henderson has too much about him for Melendez and the 4/5 from Paddy Power for Henderson to win by decision is the best option. Recommend £25.

Elsewhere, there is another interesting looking lightweight bout between Nate Diaz and Josh Thomson. Diaz is coming off a loss to the champion Henderson whilst Thomson has moved over from Strikeforce where he dropped a split decision to Melendez last time out.

The bookmakers have Diaz the firm favourite but I'm interested in siding with Thomson who is available to back at 33/20 with Ladbrokes.

Thomson has been plagued by injury but seems to have turned the corner in that respect and his multi-faceted game should see him notch a decision victory as he is an intelligent fighter who knows how to win. Recommend £15.

Benson Henderson to beat Gilbert Melendez by decision – 4/5 with Paddy Power.

Josh Thomson to beat Nate Diaz – 33/20 with Ladbrokes.

Cheers mate!

[TheDazzler]

Short notice and they probably won't let you get much on but Lee Selby rounds 1-6 @ 5/4 with PP is too big. McConnell is 12-0 but his opponents have been poor. Found some footage of him earlier and Selby will pick him off wIth ease as he comes forward woth little head movement, he has also stooped 0 of his opponents so Selby will be able to walk through his punches. Selby has stopped 4 of his last 5 (could have been 5/5 had he been more interested in punching than showboating). He is very classly and will be on the fringes of world class by the end of the year. Recommend £40.

This sort of stuff is why this thread is absolutely top notch.
Very well done.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Today sees the only meaningful rugby union game of the weekend when Wasps host Exeter. What is at stake is the final place in the Heineken cup next season. It should be very tense and low scoring.

Exeter had a bad spell around Christmas and looked totally out of sorts. However, over the last 2 months they have got their zip back and looked a good side. They have had away wins over Harlequins, Worcester and London Irish and earlier in the season beat Wasps at home 27-20. Unlike yesterday, when I couldn't get the price on Hull KR, today we can get good odds on an Exeter win. I priced Exeter at 6/5 so the 15/8 on offer is worth an investment.

Suggest £20 Exeter @ 15/8 with Sportingbet.

[Doobs]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

Had a brief look at the Blackburn run in earlier too and it didn't look bad, lots of draws and 1 goal defeats in their bad run too.  Will definitely give it a good look later but got a couple if things to do now.

Blackburns opponents over the last few games have been against mid-table teams, Burnley, Blackpool, Leeds, the odd lower team the odd higher team.  Pretty much the same spread they have in the next 5 games.

Fact is they haven't won since early Feb, and that was against Ipswich, and before that B.City.   Ignoring the cup run, they've won 3 since the 1st Jan.  

What do we think has changed, or will change in the last 6 games.  What kind of state are they moral wise, and how much are they fighting for the "club, fans, owners," etc, when off-field antics have crippled the club, with who knows what future the players have.

Stil convinced myself for £40 @ 5/2

I have seen all the form, and know the club problems.  I just thought you were ignoring a big factor if you didn't consider home and away.

I said I'd get back.

I have taken the available betfair odds, and calculated the odds on every single game remaining which involves relegation threatened clubs.  I expect some of the later ones may be off a bit, because when you get relegation threatened clubs against mid table clubs, the club in peril is always shorter then you'd expect looking at the table.  But I didnd't want to do too much work, as I have other things to do.

I have assumed Bristol are down, and have the most relegation threatened clubs as roughly
Peterborough 53.5
Huddersfield 54
Wolves and Blackburn 54.5
Barnsley 55.5

Think Leeds and Millwall will get enough unfortunately.  I have Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool (2 edits!) as next worse on 57.5.

Clearly these are just averages and there will be a lot of variance around the figures.

Assuming Huddersfield are in worse form than Blackburn, I think they are too short.  

Barnsley also look a bit short.

Wolves look a little big at 5/2, but think we have them already anyway.

Blackburn look the best bet, and you can get 3/1 at both Paddy Power and Bet365.  Several others have 11/4.

Think £40 is absolutely fine.  Would probably up it a touch.

Cheers

Huddersfield were too short, Wolves were too big, but unfortunately Blackburn wasn't the best bet.   They are back down to 6/1 best and face Millwall in the week.  A loss would be good, with the remaining games against Palace and Birmingham not easy. 

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Today sees the only meaningful rugby union game of the weekend when Wasps host Exeter. What is at stake is the final place in the Heineken cup next season. It should be very tense and low scoring.

Exeter had a bad spell around Christmas and looked totally out of sorts. However, over the last 2 months they have got their zip back and looked a good side. They have had away wins over Harlequins, Worcester and London Irish and earlier in the season beat Wasps at home 27-20. Unlike yesterday, when I couldn't get the price on Hull KR, today we can get good odds on an Exeter win. I priced Exeter at 6/5 so the 15/8 on offer is worth an investment.

Suggest £20 Exeter @ 15/8 with Sportingbet.

Good morning hector.

I got to bed at 4am after a very tiring few days up in Notts, & I'm just out of bed here. Got to get caught up on Fred, I really don't have a clue how we got on the last few days, & will do the catch-up shortly.

This bet pleased me on several counts.

Went to Sporting Bet & remembered we had a nice little winner with them yesterday, because my balance had increased. Like.

Noticed the price had IMPROVED to 2/1. Like.

Checked the Betfair price (my new discipline) & it is 2.96, so we are a nadge over that. Like.

We just need it to win now.

Congrats on, I think, two nice winners in the last 48 hours, RL & Cheater Cricket.

We have £20 @ 2/1, Sporting Bet, Exeter to beat Wasps.

ON

Bet Type: Single
London Wasps v Exeter Match Prices
Exeter
2/1
Rugby Possible Payout 60.00 GBP
1 bet @
20.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 20.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 60.00 GBP

[tikay]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

Had a brief look at the Blackburn run in earlier too and it didn't look bad, lots of draws and 1 goal defeats in their bad run too.  Will definitely give it a good look later but got a couple if things to do now.

Blackburns opponents over the last few games have been against mid-table teams, Burnley, Blackpool, Leeds, the odd lower team the odd higher team.  Pretty much the same spread they have in the next 5 games.

Fact is they haven't won since early Feb, and that was against Ipswich, and before that B.City.   Ignoring the cup run, they've won 3 since the 1st Jan. 

What do we think has changed, or will change in the last 6 games.  What kind of state are they moral wise, and how much are they fighting for the "club, fans, owners," etc, when off-field antics have crippled the club, with who knows what future the players have.

Stil convinced myself for £40 @ 5/2

I have seen all the form, and know the club problems.  I just thought you were ignoring a big factor if you didn't consider home and away.

I said I'd get back.

I have taken the available betfair odds, and calculated the odds on every single game remaining which involves relegation threatened clubs.  I expect some of the later ones may be off a bit, because when you get relegation threatened clubs against mid table clubs, the club in peril is always shorter then you'd expect looking at the table.  But I didnd't want to do too much work, as I have other things to do.

I have assumed Bristol are down, and have the most relegation threatened clubs as roughly
Peterborough 53.5
Huddersfield 54
Wolves and Blackburn 54.5
Barnsley 55.5

Think Leeds and Millwall will get enough unfortunately.  I have Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool (2 edits!) as next worse on 57.5.

Clearly these are just averages and there will be a lot of variance around the figures.

Assuming Huddersfield are in worse form than Blackburn, I think they are too short. 

Barnsley also look a bit short.

Wolves look a little big at 5/2, but think we have them already anyway.

Blackburn look the best bet, and you can get 3/1 at both Paddy Power and Bet365.  Several others have 11/4.

Think £40 is absolutely fine.  Would probably up it a touch.

Cheers

Huddersfield were too short, Wolves were too big, but unfortunately Blackburn wasn't the best bet.   They are back down to 6/1 best and face Millwall in the week.  A loss would be good, with the remaining games against Palace and Birmingham not easy. 

No, not the best bet when viewed in the rear-view mirror, but it looked decent when we got on. We still have a chance in the Relegation Market anyway, with Woilves.

Oddly, we are on BOLTON to be relegated, too. How that happen? Again, it looks daft now, but it was twinned with Wolves to go down @ 15/2.

Everything looks different when we look back. Sometimes.

[tikay]

The Bahrain F1 GP is today.

Think we want Vettel &/or Hamilton to do well.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ Noon, Sunday April  21st

LOSS on Month = £1,245.60

Outstanding bets £1,862.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23