Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Not sure if we were unlucky with the Munster bet but I am happy that we had a good bet and had value. So on the hunt for more value we must look to the 2nd semi final today. Heineken cup games tend to be tight, low scoring affairs as there is huge presssure on the players. Interestingly the drop goal is priced up by all 3 firms as odds on so there is no value there. I think Saracens may just edge it  but I think better value is to be had in my old favourite man of the match market, which we got robbed on in the 6 nations.

There are 2 players that are attractively priced, one from each side. For Saracens that man is  Joubert who we can get 28-1 ,and for the CESM's it is Rossouw at 20-1. Both are back row players and it is the tussle between the back rows that will decide this match. Making tackles, getting turnover ball and winning penalties are the key areas.

Suggest Joubert £5 @ 28-1 Betvictor
            Rossouw £5 @ 20-1 Betvictor

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 1030, Sunday April 28th

We registered a £14 loss yesterday when the dust had settled.

We did some more Spready cleansing yesterday, with many of the long term "season" football bets being settled. We took losses on 4 of them, but several likely winners remain on the Sheet, unsettled, such QPR & Wolves, plus we have profit locked up on Brighton as & when we decide to presss the button. The splendid Doncaster bet has been taken though.

Around 18 bets completed in all, with 13 losers & 5 winners.

In the red column....

Walsall to go UP, -£25

Walsall to go DOWN, -£60

Walsall to win, -£150

Kedwell, -£25

Birmingham, -£20

Chelmsford, -£30

Munster, -£20

Blackpool, -£10

Blackpool, -£10

Blackpool -£40

Garcia FGS, -£16

Costa FGS, -£16

Miller, -£10

In the winners column were......

Doncaster, +£240, rfqqhrrtqqrhgjkihbvfq

Burton, +£55, redarmi

Falcoa, +£45, horsey

Falcoa, +£18, horsey

Nelson, +£46, Scott.

A wonderful bet by rfqqerwwwqqq etc, clever spot by reds, the FGS bet by horsey was home within minutes, & don't forget Scotty, who has now given 3 winners from his last 4 bets, & his ROI has moved to a very respectable +20%.

We had £50 on Selby, who somehow conjured a loss out of a likely victory, but it is "Money back if Ronnie wins" so it remains on the sheet as a a "live" bet.

We have a locked in profit (yet to be taken) on Arsenal today, we backed at 2.5 with a view to laying, they are now 2.14.

Our huge bet on Brighton (£300 @ 9/2, now around 5/2) contains 50% to be laid off, so a nice profit awaits there, too.

Our County Cricket portfolio is in terrific shape, either Tighty or I will try & summarise it today, but it includes Middlesex @ 7/1, now 3/1.

Quite a day yesterday, one way & another.

We declined a few losers, too, including a suggestion to back Newcastle. It looked a decent bet, I only knocked it back because I could not see that the price repped value. The most remarkable result of the Premier League season, all things considered.

[tikay]

Brighton wolves, isn't it, last game.

Biggie for fred

Yes, Brighton at home to Wolves, next Saturday.

All the Championship matches kick off at 12.45 next Saturday.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Not sure if we were unlucky with the Munster bet but I am happy that we had a good bet and had value. So on the hunt for more value we must look to the 2nd semi final today. Heineken cup games tend to be tight, low scoring affairs as there is huge presssure on the players. Interestingly the drop goal is priced up by all 3 firms as odds on so there is no value there. I think Saracens may just edge it  but I think better value is to be had in my old favourite man of the match market, which we got robbed on in the 6 nations.

There are 2 players that are attractively priced, one from each side. For Saracens that man is  Joubert who we can get 28-1 ,and for the CESM's it is Rossouw at 20-1. Both are back row players and it is the tussle between the back rows that will decide this match. Making tackles, getting turnover ball and winning penalties are the key areas.

Suggest Joubert £5 @ 28-1 Betvictor
            Rossouw £5 @ 20-1 Betvictor

I thought the spirit shown by Munster was remarkable, & in the last 10 minutes they had two clear chances to win it. The players from both sides must have been black & blue after the game, & there were blood-bins galore.

Really enjoyed the game & we deffo got value @ 6/1.

[Bazzaboy]

As underminister of financial urination disposal, is a bet at 9/2 Audley "AForce" Harrison with Bet365 that is about to start (seemingly nudging past Betfair's price) tolerable?

No idea Simon, but if any boxing chaps are around, happy to take advice.

Remind me about that chess bet (or two, was it?) that you mentioned this morning, think it was for tomorrow. Won't do it tonight, am busy, but will have a look on the morrow.

DO NOT BET ON AUDLEY

^

Print that out and keep it

Was a cracking punch that he got hit with though.  That right cross was a beauty, and would have stopped a lot of heavyweights.

A few commentators in the States reckon this could be the answer to their heavyweight prayers. Harrison's stance has bigger gaps than Phil Tufnell's so it is still hard to judge him. Even Tyson Fury would be a yardstick.

Wilder is another Yank hype machine, he can obviously punch but so many flaws. When he stops fighting bums I expect he will be found out pretty sharpish. I'd have Fury a 1/3 shot against him.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Not sure if we were unlucky with the Munster bet but I am happy that we had a good bet and had value. So on the hunt for more value we must look to the 2nd semi final today. Heineken cup games tend to be tight, low scoring affairs as there is huge presssure on the players. Interestingly the drop goal is priced up by all 3 firms as odds on so there is no value there. I think Saracens may just edge it  but I think better value is to be had in my old favourite man of the match market, which we got robbed on in the 6 nations.

There are 2 players that are attractively priced, one from each side. For Saracens that man is  Joubert who we can get 28-1 ,and for the CESM's it is Rossouw at 20-1. Both are back row players and it is the tussle between the back rows that will decide this match. Making tackles, getting turnover ball and winning penalties are the key areas.

Suggest Joubert £5 @ 28-1 Betvictor
            Rossouw £5 @ 20-1 Betvictor

Excellent, two really interesting bets, with a shot at tidy money for a combined tenner. Thanks hector.

£5 @ 20/1, BetVictor, Roussow, MOT, Saracens v TouloM

£5 @ 28/1, BetVictor, Joubert, MOTM, Saracens v Toulon

ON

Saracens v Toulon
 
Danie Rossouw
(Man of the Match)
 
Odds: 20/1
Stake: 5.00
 
Possible Return:  105.00
 
Saracens v Toulon
 
Ernst Joubert
(Man of the Match)
 
Odds: 28/1
Stake: 5.00
 
Possible Return:  145.00

[Tal]

As underminister of financial urination disposal, is a bet at 9/2 Audley "AForce" Harrison with Bet365 that is about to start (seemingly nudging past Betfair's price) tolerable?

No idea Simon, but if any boxing chaps are around, happy to take advice.

Remind me about that chess bet (or two, was it?) that you mentioned this morning, think it was for tomorrow. Won't do it tonight, am busy, but will have a look on the morrow.

DO NOT BET ON AUDLEY

^

Print that out and keep it

Was a cracking punch that he got hit with though.  That right cross was a beauty, and would have stopped a lot of heavyweights.

A few commentators in the States reckon this could be the answer to their heavyweight prayers. Harrison's stance has bigger gaps than Phil Tufnell's so it is still hard to judge him. Even Tyson Fury would be a yardstick.

Wilder is another Yank hype machine, he can obviously punch but so many flaws. When he stops fighting bums I expect he will be found out pretty sharpish. I'd have Fury a 1/3 shot against him.

I'm not a Fury fan either, so I'd struggle to recommend him at 1/2. Wilder might go through his career never fighting a really good fighter in his prime.

Calzaghe managed it.

 

[Doobs]

Recommend £150 or more if u want  Arsenal to beat Man U @6/4 boyles, Betfred

We will be laying this back nearer the time once either market overreacts to the the fact United (most likely) will have already won the league and its a must win for Arsenal. Expecting silly short prices on Arsenal if Utd win tonight ie sub 2.2

They are already 2.42/2.44 on bf and market will only go one way if Utd win as it always overestimates the "nothing to play for" factor. If the market goes the other way if they don't win tonight we will also trade out for a loss if need be.

Morning.

Should we now lay this off? Think that was the original plan.

As of right now (0915).....Arsenal are 2.12 to back, 2.14 to lay.

So that seems a good locked in profit if we lay, as originally planned.

Shall I do it, yes, no?

Our bet is £150 @ 6/4, BetFred.

Must say, what a great spot this was. Perfectly anticipated.

Congrats to Eso Kral for at last finding us a winner.

Just throwing it out there, but shouldn't we reverse our position here and lay Arsenal at 2.14?

[Tal]

Silly question: "reverse our position" means lay for more than £150, so we have an active lay of Ar5ena1?

[TightEnd]

Cricket portfolio

LVCC Div 1

Middlesex £50 e/w (Top 3) at 7-1

Now : 3-1

Thoughts: Middlesex have had a great start winning 2 out of 2 and are 11 points clear at the top. A cloud on the horizon is the departure of Rogers to the Ashes. Thats 1000+ runs to replace, though I do expect him to be replaced with another overseas batsman.

Durham to finish bottom £20 at 13-2

Now 13-8, Derbyshire 1-3

Thoughts: Durham look to be one of the weaker teams in a very tough division but a) Derbyshire are worse and b) Durham's seam attack will win them points especially at home.

Chris Rogers top scoring Captain £40 at 7/2

Thoughts: Rogers has been selected for the Ashes tour.


LVCC Div 2

Hampshire £40 at 4-1

Now 5-2

Thoughts. Hampshire are probably the best team in the division, and this bet is well placed. Lancashire are generally seen to be their main rivals and they have drawn 2 out of 2. Remember its 16 points for a win, so draws are no good....

Northants £10 ew at 20-1

Now 7-1

Thoughts. Top after 3 games with 2 wins out of 3. It may not last, but for now the bowling attack is firing on all cylinders and it is a great start. They are almost a win clear at the top, in points terms.

Simon Katich   £10 at 20-1

Thoughts. Over 175 runs in his first game of the season for Lancashire. Likely to be a live sweat most of the year, playing at Old Trafford (slow and low) for one of the better teams. Not going to get called up for the Ashes! Brendan Nash of Kent leads with 262 runs


IPL


Mumbai: £20 at 5-1

Now 3-1

Mumbai beat Bangalore yesterday and half way through the group games are 4/9 with top four making the semis. I think the best teams are Chennai and Bangalore. Get into the top 4 and options are possible, hedging, running it, even winning it

Interesting the semis have been moved from Chennai to Delhi to allow the Sri Lankan players to participate. Mumbai have Malinga


Pune £20 at 9-1/10-1 7/9 with 2 wins out of 8

Now 33-1

Thoughts  A struggle,need a dramatic improvement in form soon.

Owais Shah Top English batsman £100 at 7/4 0 runs

Thoughts  Currently consulting his Lonely Planet guide to India for which tourist sight to visit next, in the absence of grasping his bat in anger.

Marlon Samuels top  £10 e/w (? spreadsheet unclear) at 50-1

Thoughts. 8 runs. Gayle has 450


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-one/table

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-two/table

http://www.iplt20.com/stats

http://www.iplt20.com/stats/2013/most-runs

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

[tikay]

Recommend £150 or more if u want  Arsenal to beat Man U @6/4 boyles, Betfred

We will be laying this back nearer the time once either market overreacts to the the fact United (most likely) will have already won the league and its a must win for Arsenal. Expecting silly short prices on Arsenal if Utd win tonight ie sub 2.2

They are already 2.42/2.44 on bf and market will only go one way if Utd win as it always overestimates the "nothing to play for" factor. If the market goes the other way if they don't win tonight we will also trade out for a loss if need be.

Morning.

Should we now lay this off? Think that was the original plan.

As of right now (0915).....Arsenal are 2.12 to back, 2.14 to lay.

So that seems a good locked in profit if we lay, as originally planned.

Shall I do it, yes, no?

Our bet is £150 @ 6/4, BetFred.

Must say, what a great spot this was. Perfectly anticipated.

Congrats to Eso Kral for at last finding us a winner.

Just throwing it out there, but shouldn't we reverse our position here and lay Arsenal at 2.14?

Yes, that was the whole idea, & 2.14 (2.16 at this moment) gives us a nice profit, which was precisely the logic of the bet.

I had really wanted Dubai to suggest when, & at what price, we pressed the Lay button, but he is not around at present, it is Sunday, so I guess he is at Church, or out jogging.

Think we can wait a little longer, but if he fails to appear soon, I think I should do it.

Would you suggest I just do it at, say, 2.16 or thereabouts?

[tikay]

Cricket portfolio

LVCC Div 1

Middlesex £50 e/w (Top 3) at 7-1

Now : 3-1

Thoughts: Middlesex have had a great start winning 2 out of 2 and are 11 points clear at the top. A cloud on the horizon is the departure of Rogers to the Ashes. Thats 1000+ runs to replace, though I do expect him to be replaced with another overseas batsman.

Durham to finish bottom £20 at 13-2

Now 13-8, Derbyshire 1-3

Thoughts: Durham look to be one of the weaker teams in a very tough division but a) Derbyshire are worse and b) Durham's seam attack will win them points especially at home.

Chris Rogers top scoring Captain £40 at 7/2

Thoughts: Rogers has been selected for the Ashes tour.


LVCC Div 2

Hampshire £40 at 4-1

Now 5-2

Thoughts. Hampshire are probably the best team in the division, and this bet is well placed. Lancashire are generally seen to be their main rivals and they have drawn 2 out of 2. Remember its 16 points for a win, so draws are no good....

Northants £10 ew at 20-1

Now 7-1

Thoughts. Top after 3 games with 2 wins out of 3. It may not last, but for now the bowling attack is firing on all cylinders and it is a great start. They are almost a win clear at the top, in points terms.

Simon Katich  £10 at 20-1

Thoughts. Over 175 runs in his first game of the season for Lancashire. Likely to be a live sweat most of the year, playing at Old Trafford (slow and low) for one of the better teams. Not going to get called up for the Ashes! Brendan Nash of Kent leads with 262 runs


IPL


Mumbai: £20 at 5-1

Now 3-1

Mumbai beat Bangalore yesterday and half way through the group games are 4/9 with top four making the semis. I think the best teams are Chennai and Bangalore. Get into the top 4 and options are possible, hedging, running it, even winning it

Interesting the semis have been moved from Chennai to Delhi to allow the Sri Lankan players to participate. Mumbai have Malinga


Pune £20 at 9-1/10-1 7/9 with 2 wins out of 8

Now 33-1

Thoughts  A struggle,need a dramatic improvement in form soon.

Owais Shah Top English batsman £100 at 7/4 0 runs

Thoughts  Currently consulting his Lonely Planet guide to India for which tourist sight to visit next, in the absence of grasping his bat in anger.

Marlon Samuels top  £10 e/w (? spreadsheet unclear) at 50-1

Thoughts. 8 runs. Gayle has 450


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-one/table

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-two/table

http://www.iplt20.com/stats

http://www.iplt20.com/stats/2013/most-runs

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

Superb summary Tighty, thanks.

We have some cricket fun ahead, & are in tremendous shape with several bets.

That IPL thing is a bugger to predict, though.

[tikay]

Wow. Just wow.

I have seen a lot of cricket in my time but what I have seen over the last week takes the cake. My advice for next year is do not bet on the IPL. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but it just seems like all of the recent games have been bent. Maybe its variance but there are batsmen playing shots that would be ridiculed in playgrounds, bowlers bowling no balls and wides at ridiculous times and run outs that arent even close. Neither of today's teams are likely to make the semis so realistically the pressue was minimal and yet Pune still lost 6 wickets in two overs. they were very nearly a 1.01 job! That was ridiculous.

I tend to agree with you. It is all a bit American Wrestling-ish.

[rinswun]

Wow. Just wow.

I have seen a lot of cricket in my time but what I have seen over the last week takes the cake. My advice for next year is do not bet on the IPL. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but it just seems like all of the recent games have been bent. Maybe its variance but there are batsmen playing shots that would be ridiculed in playgrounds, bowlers bowling no balls and wides at ridiculous times and run outs that arent even close. Neither of today's teams are likely to make the semis so realistically the pressue was minimal and yet Pune still lost 6 wickets in two overs. they were very nearly a 1.01 job! That was ridiculous.

I tend to agree with you. It is all a bit American Wrestling-ish.

Apologies for the lack of updates - extremely hectic work schedule for the last two weeks and every time I did nip on Tal or yourself had already covered our bases!

If anyone wants to see (imo) the most blatant example of the above, have a look at the following clip featuring one Rahul Dravid - veteran of 164 tests and 344 ODIs. The clip is pretty poor quality but shows two consecutive balls from a game against Chennai last week when they were chasing 26 off 2.3 overs.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L7qlApvP4cI

[Doobs]

Silly question: "reverse our position" means lay for more than £150, so we have an active lay of Ar5ena1?

Yes.  The whole idea is that Arsenal were bound to start too short.  Now they look too short so we should lay.