Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Falcoa heading to Man City?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/falcao/club-after-summer-transfer-window

Player announced he's leaving, so that could be why the market has twitched. Seems odd that the favourite is a club without a manager.

Cliffs on why he'd go to Monaco? Not many of the big names get linked with Monaco.

[pokerfan]

Falcoa heading to Man City?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/falcao/club-after-summer-transfer-window

Player announced he's leaving, so that could be why the market has twitched. Seems odd that the favourite is a club without a manager.

Cliffs on why he'd go to Monaco? Not many of the big names get linked with Monaco.

No tax in Monaco.

[Tal]

Falcoa heading to Man City?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/falcao/club-after-summer-transfer-window

Player announced he's leaving, so that could be why the market has twitched. Seems odd that the favourite is a club without a manager.

Cliffs on why he'd go to Monaco? Not many of the big names get linked with Monaco.

No tax in Monaco.

Effectively no tax at Citeh or PSG because they just pay you more

[horseplayer]

Falcoa heading to Man City?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/falcao/club-after-summer-transfer-window

Player announced he's leaving, so that could be why the market has twitched. Seems odd that the favourite is a club without a manager.

Cliffs on why he'd go to Monaco? Not many of the big names get linked with Monaco.

No tax in Monaco.

Effectively no tax at Citeh or PSG because they just pay you more

they have an unlimited transfer budget this season

they are one of only a handful of sides that could afford him (not so much him but the 3rd party owners of him)

the 3rd party owners are in some way linked to the owners of monaco in a small way

falcao only went to at madrid because they would pay his 3rd party owners massive signing on fees

[Tal]

Ahhhh right.

Would that be a problem for the premiership sides, then?

Tevez/Mascherano etc.

[horseplayer]

yes it just complicates the transfer

it is all very confusing but upto 40% of any fee will go to his holding company rather than ath madrid

he is still young enough anyway if he goes to monaco one very good season will follow and his value will only go one way for him and his owners

[pokerfan]

yes it just complicates the transfer

it is all very confusing but upto 40% of any fee will go to his holding company rather than ath madrid

he is still young enough anyway if he goes to monaco one very good season will follow and his value will only go one way for him and his owners

He's 27, career suicide going to Monaco imo.

[pokerfan]

Sick place to live though for a multai footballer.

[horseplayer]

yes it just complicates the transfer

it is all very confusing but upto 40% of any fee will go to his holding company rather than ath madrid

he is still young enough anyway if he goes to monaco one very good season will follow and his value will only go one way for him and his owners

He's 27, career suicide going to Monaco imo.

he does not have a massive choice

plus he has only really started maturing and improving since 2009 so still has plenty of life about him

[Katais]

Mumbai & Hyderabad in the IPL, 3/1 the double w/ WH. 

[tikay]

Mumbai & Hyderabad in the IPL, 3/1 the double w/ WH. 

Ha, about time you arrived on Fred.

Why is that value, JJ?

PS - As an aside (not necessarily relevant) we already have an interest in Mumbai - we have them outright, @ 5/1.

[tikay]

Yesterday might just have been the quietest day ever on Fred, but at least we got time to catch our breath.

Today, though......IPL is back.  

[kukushkin88]

Morning Tony,

Jiyai Shin in the Pure Silk Bahamas Classic @ 16/1 with Betfred looks really good to me. I´m not quite sure why the market underrates her here but I was expecting 12/1. She is a bit of a Blonde betting legend from pre TfT days, I´d be interested to see what Ralph thinks but this price might not last.

Recommend £10 (E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Jiyai Shin @ 16/1 Pure Silk Bahamas LPGA Classic with Beftred/Tote.

[tikay]

Morning Tony,

Jiyai Shin in the Pure Silk Bahamas Classic @ 16/1 with Betfred looks really good to me. I´m not quite sure why the market underrates her here but I was expecting 12/1. She is a bit of a Blonde betting legend from pre TfT days, I´d be interested to see what Ralph thinks but this price might not last.

Recommend £10 (E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Jiyai Shin @ 16/1 Pure Silk Bahamas LPGA Classic with Beftred/Tote.

Lovely, thank you, we are a bit quiet at the moment, & that fits the bill nicely, & looks a value spot.

She ran well last weekend I seem to recall, Top 5 finish? I know Ralph is a big fanboy of Missing Sing.

We are on.

£10 EW @ 16/1, BetFred, Jiyai Shin, Pure Silk Bahamas Classic.

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 134/141
 


Bet ref: 134/141 £10.00 Single

Pure Silk Bahamas Classic - Outright
Tournament Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

Shin, Ji-Yai

16/1

Total stake

£ 20.00

Estimated return

£ 220.00

Full stake

£ 20.00

Full estimated return

£ 220.00
 

[tikay]

It's the Monaco Grand Prix this weekend, and I have previously written on here about the possibility that on a non-overtaking track that the Mercedes, who are the quickest over a single lap but whose tyres go off in the race, might be able to hold on and win at an attractive price

From a strategy point of view the Monaco Grand Prix is a very tricky race as cars can lose a lot of time running in slow traffic and there is a very high (80%) chance of a safety car, there have been 14 safety cars in the last ten years in eight of the races.





Although Monaco is a unique proposition, a narrow street track on which it is almost impossible to overtake, there is potentially a game to be played this year on race strategy.

Traditionally a one stop race, there is scope for teams like Lotus and Ferrari that are kinder on their tyres than rivals, to pit early and attempt the undercut knowing that their rivals will not be able to react and bring their car in because it will not make it to the finish from there on a single set of tyres.



With the likelihood that Mercedes will take pole and the front row in Monaco in qualifying, this is a very real possibility as a tactical play for Lotus and Ferrari and a possible betting opportunity

Cars that go well in Monaco have plenty of low speed downforce and traction, for good corner exit performance. The Mercedes was the fastest car in the slow Sector 3 in Barcelona, which is usually a good indicator of pace for Monaco. It has also had pole position at the last three Grands Prix, but has then faded each time in the race as it overheats its tyres. This is less of a problem at Monaco as the track puts less energy into the tyres, so Mercedes may well be able to hold on and win this race.

This race sees the second appearance of the supersoft tyre, which was used in Melbourne. The teams have done little running or testing on it this year. In Melbourne it lasted only nine or ten laps, but with the shorter lap in Monaco and less energy going into the tyre, it should go further.

However, to make a one stop strategy work you will need to do more than 50 laps on a set of soft tyres. Based on what we saw in China, where the soft was good for only six or seven laps, this will be a struggle.

To pull off a one stop strategy the cars that qualify on supersofts will need to get to at last lap 27. This may prove too much for many runners, who are likely to be forced into a two stop strategy.



This creates a great opportunity for a car, like the Lotus, that may not qualify at the front, but can potentially do the race on one stop only. It is more likely that the race will be like the 2011 edition which saw a mixture of one, two and even three stop strategies.


So, turning to the race winner market

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/winner

I believe we can create a two way play here

The Mercedes certainly has a chance of holding on here, for all the reasons outlined above

Rosberg is available at 8-1, is easier on his tyres than Hamilton and, on a tight track, likely to be a safer bet than Hamilton who is too aggressive/always likely to get into trouble at Monaco

Raikkonen gives us the other strategy, the undercut, try to do one stop. He is available at 7-1

Both represent far better value than the Red Bull and Ferrari based solely on price for this race. The Red Bulls will come into their own when tyre specs revert for the next race

Recommendations

£5 e/w (1/5 1,2,3) on Rosberg 8-1, Raikkonen 7-1

Low stakes because

- Its F1
- Its Monaco
- Safety cars, accidents etc can spoil any race at Monaco


The aim here is to have a foot in each camp. The one lap speed of Mercedes at the front, and the potential strategy advantage of the Renault through the race and having to do only one stop.....

No weather map? No bell curve graph things? Shocking.

Foot firmly placed in both camps. And, doubtless, in mouth, too.

£5 EW @ 8/1, BetFred, Rosberg, Monaco GP

£5 EW @ 7/1, Corals, Raikkonen, Monaco GP

ON



Bet placed, its reference is135/142
 
Bet ref: 135/142 £5.00 Single

F1 Monaco Gp
Race Winner
EW 1/5 1,2,3

Rosberg, Nico

8/1

Total stake

£ 10.00

Estimated return

£ 58.00

Full stake

£ 10.00

Full estimated return

£ 58.00

__________

21/05/2013 08:39AM Single
Each Way £ 10.00 Kimi Raikkonen - Race Winner - Monaco GP Race Winner @ 7/1
£ 0.00