Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £176.69

Outstanding Bets £1265.50


One bet yesterday, Rust was backed e/w at 8/1, went off 4/1 and finished 5th for a £20 loss on the day. That apart, one of the quietest sporting days of the year, reflected on here

Today, the IPL resumes in the final 4 with Mumbai and Chennai playing for the right to go straight to the final

Later in the week, County Cricket (Durham v Middlesex a fun one for us), Test Cricket, Monaco Grand Prix, Champions League final so it will be all systems go again

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £176.69

Outstanding Bets £1265.50


One bet yesterday, Rust was backed e/w at 8/1, went off 4/1 and finished 5th for a £20 loss on the day. That apart, one of the quietest sporting days of the year, reflected on here

Today, the IPL resumes in the final 4 with Mumbai and Chennai playing for the right to go straight to the final

Later in the week, County Cricket (Durham v Middlesex a fun one for us), Test Cricket, Monaco Grand Prix, Champions League final so it will be all systems go again

Yes, very quiet, the lull after the Premier League storm I suppose, but CL, the Test match, Monaco, & Miss Shin, we'll soon be back up to speed again.

[Doobs]

It's the Monaco Grand Prix this weekend, and I have previously written on here about the possibility that on a non-overtaking track that the Mercedes, who are the quickest over a single lap but whose tyres go off in the race, might be able to hold on and win at an attractive price

From a strategy point of view the Monaco Grand Prix is a very tricky race as cars can lose a lot of time running in slow traffic and there is a very high (80%) chance of a safety car, there have been 14 safety cars in the last ten years in eight of the races.





Although Monaco is a unique proposition, a narrow street track on which it is almost impossible to overtake, there is potentially a game to be played this year on race strategy.

Traditionally a one stop race, there is scope for teams like Lotus and Ferrari that are kinder on their tyres than rivals, to pit early and attempt the undercut knowing that their rivals will not be able to react and bring their car in because it will not make it to the finish from there on a single set of tyres.



With the likelihood that Mercedes will take pole and the front row in Monaco in qualifying, this is a very real possibility as a tactical play for Lotus and Ferrari and a possible betting opportunity

Cars that go well in Monaco have plenty of low speed downforce and traction, for good corner exit performance. The Mercedes was the fastest car in the slow Sector 3 in Barcelona, which is usually a good indicator of pace for Monaco. It has also had pole position at the last three Grands Prix, but has then faded each time in the race as it overheats its tyres. This is less of a problem at Monaco as the track puts less energy into the tyres, so Mercedes may well be able to hold on and win this race.

This race sees the second appearance of the supersoft tyre, which was used in Melbourne. The teams have done little running or testing on it this year. In Melbourne it lasted only nine or ten laps, but with the shorter lap in Monaco and less energy going into the tyre, it should go further.

However, to make a one stop strategy work you will need to do more than 50 laps on a set of soft tyres. Based on what we saw in China, where the soft was good for only six or seven laps, this will be a struggle.

To pull off a one stop strategy the cars that qualify on supersofts will need to get to at last lap 27. This may prove too much for many runners, who are likely to be forced into a two stop strategy.



This creates a great opportunity for a car, like the Lotus, that may not qualify at the front, but can potentially do the race on one stop only. It is more likely that the race will be like the 2011 edition which saw a mixture of one, two and even three stop strategies.


So, turning to the race winner market

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/winner

I believe we can create a two way play here

The Mercedes certainly has a chance of holding on here, for all the reasons outlined above

Rosberg is available at 8-1, is easier on his tyres than Hamilton and, on a tight track, likely to be a safer bet than Hamilton who is too aggressive/always likely to get into trouble at Monaco

Raikkonen gives us the other strategy, the undercut, try to do one stop. He is available at 7-1

Both represent far better value than the Red Bull and Ferrari based solely on price for this race. The Red Bulls will come into their own when tyre specs revert for the next race

Recommendations

£5 e/w (1/5 1,2,3) on Rosberg 8-1, Raikkonen 7-1

Low stakes because

- Its F1
- Its Monaco
- Safety cars, accidents etc can spoil any race at Monaco


The aim here is to have a foot in each camp. The one lap speed of Mercedes at the front, and the potential strategy advantage of the Renault through the race and having to do only one stop.....

No weather map? No bell curve graph things? Shocking.

Foot firmly placed in both camps. And, doubtless, in mouth, too.

£5 EW @ 8/1, BetFred, Rosberg, Monaco GP

£5 EW @ 7/1, Corals, Raikkonen, Monaco GP

ON



Bet placed, its reference is135/142
 
Bet ref: 135/142 £5.00 Single

F1 Monaco Gp
Race Winner
EW 1/5 1,2,3

Rosberg, Nico

8/1

Total stake

£ 10.00

Estimated return

£ 58.00

Full stake

£ 10.00

Full estimated return

£ 58.00

__________

21/05/2013 08:39AM Single
Each Way £ 10.00 Kimi Raikkonen - Race Winner - Monaco GP Race Winner @ 7/1
£ 0.00

For those not on already you can get Rosberg at 7/4 the place at BetVictor which is slightly better. 

[Karabiner]

Morning Tony,

Jiyai Shin in the Pure Silk Bahamas Classic @ 16/1 with Betfred looks really good to me. I´m not quite sure why the market underrates her here but I was expecting 12/1. She is a bit of a Blonde betting legend from pre TfT days, I´d be interested to see what Ralph thinks but this price might not last.

Recommend £10 (E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Jiyai Shin @ 16/1 Pure Silk Bahamas LPGA Classic with Beftred/Tote.

Lovely, thank you, we are a bit quiet at the moment, & that fits the bill nicely, & looks a value spot.

She ran well last weekend I seem to recall, Top 5 finish? I know Ralph is a big fanboy of Missing Sing.

We are on.

£10 EW @ 16/1, BetFred, Jiyai Shin, Pure Silk Bahamas Classic.

ON

Bet placed, its reference is 134/141
 


Bet ref: 134/141 £10.00 Single

Pure Silk Bahamas Classic - Outright
Tournament Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

Shin, Ji-Yai

16/1

Total stake

£ 20.00

Estimated return

£ 220.00

Full stake

£ 20.00

Full estimated return

£ 220.00
 

It's Ms.Shin in action.

I didn't punt on the golf last week so not only did Sang-Moon Bae (whom I'd been betting on the last few weeks) win drawing away @ 120/1+ but Ms. Shin shot a final round spite-63 (9birdies/9pars) to briefly take the clubhouse lead on -19, at which point I was feeling suicidal.

She's definitely in form and playing well and I've always thought that any price of 12/1 or bigger must be value for her as she is a prolific winner.

[TightEnd]

"In last May's race, which was also run on the softs and supersofts, all of the top-ten finishers opted for a one-stop strategy. However, this year's tyres are significantly softer than their predecessors, opening the possibility of a 'strategic split' on Sunday - especially if, as expected, the fast but tyre-hungry Mercedes qualifies on pole position."

http://www1.skysports.com/formula-1/news/12433/8725683/Under-fire-Pirelli-predict-two-pit-stops-to-be-the-norm-in-Sunday-s-Monaco-GP

[TightEnd]

You might not want to (laying on an exchange after backing on a sportsbook), BadBeat -EV self combustion,

but I intend to lay back my stake plus a bit on Mumbai at 2.6 (IPL outright)

Why?

If they win to go straight to final they go from 6/4 to Evens, maybe 5/6

If they lose and have to play a semi they go 3/1 ish

Chennai v Mumbai today is a coin toss, in fact Chennai probably modest favourites

I think we've had most of the value from Mumbai, and now we are into short format one off game variance.

If you are inclined to do so

turning £20 at 5-1 which is a book of

-£20 (Mumbai lose)/+100 (Mumbai win)

into a book of

+5 (Mumbai lose)/+60 (Mumbai win)

via laying £25 at 2.6 for a liability of £40 is the equivalent of what I will do

[tikay]

You might not want to (laying on an exchange after backing on a sportsbook), BadBeat -EV self combustion,

but I have intend to lay back my stake plus a bit on Mumbai at 2.6 (IPL outright)

Why?

If they win to go straight to final they go from 6/4 to Evens, maybe 5/6

If they lose and have to play a semi they go 3/1 ish

Chennai v Mumbai today is a coin toss, in fact Chennai probably modest favourites

I think we've had most of the value from Mumbai, and now we are into short format one off game variance.

If you are inclined to do so

turning £20 at 5-1 which is a book of

-£20 (Mumbai lose)/+100 (Mumbai win)

into a book of

+5 (Mumbai lose)/+60 (Mumbai win)

via laying £25 at 2.5 for a liability of £40 is the equivalent of what I will do

That actually makes sense to me, but will Camel shout at me, will Doobsy produce a 93 volume mathematical explanation of why it is daft, & will I end up tilting Lord Channing?

Can't be having any of those.

[BigAdz]

Sometimes, I find putting maths aside and going back to the point in time when I placed the bet, the best option.

Think about when you placed the bet, and decide if the ensuing scenario had been available at that time, would you have taken it. Forget how close you are to scooping the lot now. Think back to then and consider if you could put yourself in this position then would you take it?

Not scientific, but works for me.

[TightEnd]

This is part of what I try to do. Comes from my days of trading portfolios, target prices etc etc

In essence if you'd said to me that Mumbai would make the semi's I would have taken that, and the positional flexibility it offered, at the start. Even more so when we consider what we've seen since, in terms of "unpredictability" of outcomes

[Bad Beat]

 I feel I may be wasting my breathe.

 It is not my opinion that every time you place a +ev bet that earns you money and every time you place a -ev bet that will lose you money.

 Short-term luck means that you may win for a bit placing -ve bets and you may lose placing +ev bets, but in the long-run you must surely agree my statement is a fact.

 If you place a new bet, (which is what hedging, closing, perfecting your trading strategy is), then you will lose money on that bet in the long run if it is -ev and win money if it is +ev.

 It does not matter a jot what bets you have placed already or what your startegy is these are facts.

 The new bets must be considered in exactly the same way as the original bets.

 When you are "greening out" on Betfair the bloke who is matching you has no knowledge of why you are doing it and whether you have positions to close. He probably wouldn't give a flying fuck.

 The new bet you are placing is a thing. It doesn't have a memory. It doesn't know what you have done. It is +ev it will win you and -ev it will lose you.

 If I offer you 5/1 on the heads in a coin flip and let you spin five times and then someone else offers you 1/2 on the tails, are you seriously telling me that you would snap both people's arm off?

 Surely everyone here realises that you take trhe 5/1 and politely decline the 1/2 and let variance take care of itself?

 Why is this so tough to understand? Why do you think Betfair spend about 30% of their marketing on the "take" profits feature? Why do you think 95% plus Betfair punters lose and 5% win.

 Obviously the question arises as to what is the correct price in sports markets. It isn't heads or tails and we don't know for a fact the true price, but we still have to go through the same process to arrive at our estimation of the true price when we have a position in the market as we do when we don't. Having already placed a great bet does not give us the license to place a poor one and abdicate this responsibility.

 That is pissing-away equity.
 

[tikay]

Well that told us proper good.



PS - See, even debating it tilts Neil!

[TightEnd]

I explained why most if not all of the prospects are in the price, in this instance, due to the lopsided nature of the knock out phases here.

I only spent the fifteen years trying to buy low and sell high. No different here

Doubt any of us have the time to fall out, so we'll leave it at that.

[Bad Beat]

 I don't want to fall out but it upsets me that nobody here seems to understand that placing bets that are -ev will lose you money in the long-run. It is like the flat earth society.

 I was not debating I was stating facts. I'm not sure if you are saying my facts are not facts or if you chose to just ignore them.

 I definitely respect Tighty and many others here in their ability to pick out a price that is wrong and place a +ev wager. That is why I find it frustrating to see them wasting time with -ev ones.

 It is, of course possible, that the market in the IPL outright, (the games now have more liquidity than the EPL in the Asian Market), is totally wrong and at 100.9% on Betfair it would sound like it is possible.

 I suspect that with just four teams left it is right though and it only possible to place -ev bets. Very small -ev maybe, but -ev all the same.

 You had a great bet, your analysis was excellent as it usually is, you should certainly spend your valuable time on the next event and let variance run it's course and results take care of themselves.

[MereNovice]

I don't want to fall out but it upsets me that nobody here seems to understand that placing bets that are -ev will lose you money in the long-run. It is like the flat earth society.

 I was not debating I was stating facts. I'm not sure if you are saying my facts are not facts or if you chose to just ignore them.

 I definitely respect Tighty and many others here in their ability to pick out a price that is wrong and place a +ev wager. That is why I find it frustrating to see them wasting time with -ev ones.

 It is, of course possible, that the market in the IPL outright, (the games now have more liquidity than the EPL in the Asian Market), is totally wrong and at 100.9% on Betfair it would sound like it is possible.

 I suspect that with just four teams left it is right though and it only possible to place -ev bets. Very small -ev maybe, but -ev all the same.

 You had a great bet, your analysis was excellent as it usually is, you should certainly spend your valuable time on the next event and let variance run it's course and results take care of themselves.

I love that you explain the facts so patiently each time this comes up.
You give slightly different examples and clarification each time.
Your logic is indisputable.

Still, I fear that you're preaching to the deaf.

[horseplayer]

it is now being reported that Monaco have agreed deals with Moutinho and James Rodriguez.....

French league just got interesting next season