Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

This Radwenska burd playing Venus Williams is quite a comely wench.

Bernard Manning ITT...

[TightEnd]

whoops

http://www1.skysports.com/formula-1/news/12433/8737291/FIA-deny-having-full-knowledge-of-Mercedes-three-day-test-at-Barcelona

[Tal]

Pretty sure that's not what Ross Brawn said!

[Karabiner]

This Radwenska burd playing Venus Williams is quite a comely wench.

Bernard Manning ITT...

I was just imagining that I was celtic inviting her to buy me dinner at nando's.

[Tal]

This Radwenska burd playing Venus Williams is quite a comely wench.

Bernard Manning ITT...

I was just imagining that I was celtic inviting her to buy me dinner at nando's.

That was like a Federer cross court backhand. Did not expect that response one bit

 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £424.18

Outstanding Bets £1295.5

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=24

A profit of £158 yesterday on a day where most of what we needed to go right did so

Mumbai won the IPL for a profit of £100

Rosberg won the Monaco Grand Prix for a profit of £38, once Raikkonen's loss, and his first non points finish for 23 races,was taken into account

Cavendish won the Giro D'Italia points for a profit of £40

The only loser yesterday was Duckworth in the Tennis who failed to win for - £20


In ongoing bets we have a slither of a chance with Swann in New Zealand's second innings at Headingley.

San Antonio are poised to win the NBA Western Conference.  

Vettel is 21 points clear at the top of the F1 Drivers Championship

Northants play Hampshire on Wednesday as two of our bets collide in LVCC2

The Derby and the Oaks at the end of the week. All eyes on Secret Gesture and Aidan O'Brien's runners

[tikay]

Thanks Rich.

A F1 bet which won! Well done.

And who'd have thought that Mumbai would win the IPL, after all the........odd results?

I will confirm the details of the overnight NBA bet (Heat v Pacers) shortly, but please note that bet LOST. (£30).

I can confirm that despite the Official Protest, BetFred HAVE paid out on the Rosberg bet.

The Ms Shin bet remains UNSETTLED.

[stribling]

Not sure if you've bet on it tighty but think Raikonnen snuck into 10th place yesterday so he can still beat schumachers record.

[tikay]

Not sure if you've bet on it tighty but think Raikonnen snuck into 10th place yesterday so he can still beat schumachers record.

Correct.

It does not help our bet, we wanted him to podiumate, but he snuck into 10th place despite that late & rather unlucky mishap. That makes 23 consecutive points finish I believe.

[tikay]

Been mulling a bet on the NBA playoffs game between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.  Miami are the best team in the NBA.  It isn't particularly close to be honest.  They went like 30 games unbeaten during the regular season and Lebron James is the best player since Jordan and the only one to have gotten close to him so it goes without saying I like the Pacers!!!!

Why?  I watched the first couple of games in Miami which they split 1-1 but bother were very close.  The line on them was Miami -8 but Miami never really looked like covering that.  Normally in the NBA we would expect home advantage to be worth somewhere in the region of 3.5-4 points so a reasonable line for this game would be somewhere between pick and Miami -1.  The general line is Miami -1.5 so we pick up a smidgeon of value there but the more important reasons are to do with the way the teams matchup.  Despite how dominant Miami have been over the rest of the league this year Indy shade their meetings 3-2 this year and the last ten meetings are 5-5 and have posted a 7-3 record against the spread in those games.  I have been struggling in my mind to understand why this might be but then I read a tweet today from Haralabous Voulgaris who is widely considered one of the best nba bettors in the world linking to this article he described as "might be the best nba piece he has read all year"  http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/58603/roy-hibbert-is-in-lebron-james-head and it certainly makes a lot of sense as to why they are playing them tough.

Added to this there is no doubt that Dwayne Wade is playing with a niggle and is not his usual self.  So effectively we can expect two of the Heats three main players to perform below their very best tonight and it doesnt seem to be in the line despite what our eyes saw in the first two games.  Don't think it is a huge edge but I would make the Pacers a small favourite here.  Suggest 30 quid on pacers +1.5 at 1.98 on Betfair or 1.95 with Pinnacle....

CONFIRMATION only.

We had £30 @ 1.95, Betfair, Indiana Pacers, +1.5.

ON


Playoff Games 26 May / Miami @ Indiana / Indiana +1.5  Indiana +1.5 Back 27359239638 26-May-13
13:54    C 1.95  30.00   1.95 (30.00)

[tikay]

Our O'Brien (No Classic Winners in 2013) bet.

Talk to me about Magician.........and Dawn Approach.

[TightEnd]

Ravi Shastri has been appointed to a 3 man committee to probe match fixing, by the BCCI

Next George Bush will be appointed to investigate abuses at Guantanamo Bay.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

A bad tennis bet yesterday but when I went to the bookies in the afternoon and read the Racing Post I saw that their tennis bod had recommended the exact same bet so it can't have been truly awful. However I would like to give a gentle nudge to Mr Tightend about the forthcoming Lions tour. I feel we should place the series bet before next Saturday when the tour begins. I believe he likes Australia to win 2-1, I am happier with just Australia to win so a bit of discussion may be needed.

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

A bad tennis bet yesterday but when I went to the bookies in the afternoon and read the Racing Post I saw that their tennis bod had recommended the exact same bet so it can't have been truly awful. However I would like to give a gentle nudge to Mr Tightend about the forthcoming Lions tour. I feel we should place the series bet before next Saturday when the tour begins. I believe he likes Australia to win 2-1, I am happier with just Australia to win so a bit of discussion may be needed.

Australia 11/8 Lions 8/11, roughly

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-winner

I think the Aussies will have too much gas out wide for the Lions, assuming they obtain parity up front

Given that 2-1 Australia is only a 5-2 shot,

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/series-correct-score

I do think it should be 2-1 either way, can't see either team winning 3-0


I am happy to go with your thoughts Ernie.


I am still big on the Welsh players market, over 7.5 at Evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/number-of-starting-welsh-players

Sitting here today I have

Warburton
Halfpenny
North
Phillips
Faletau
Adam Jones
Alun Wyn Jones
Hibbard

as good things for the Test team

and can make cases for Tipuric, Cuthbert, Jamie Roberts, Gethin Jenkins too

7.5 strikes me as on the low side

Obviously injuries, form etc are the usual risks

Your thoughts on that one Hector?

[TightEnd]

This is what I wrote when the tour party was announced Hector

Don't think it was actioned, prices moved, markets went down I don't recall


The Lions Tour Squad is announced at 11

Paddy Power have come up with a series of markets on the test team

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union

see "Lions Tour"


If we take their markets for each position and tally up the number of English players they expect to be in the Test Side

We have

Full Back 0 Unlikely to be an English player in the squad
Wing 0 Unlikely to be English winger in squad
Centre 0  Tuilagi 3rd in betting
Fly Half 0 Farrell 2nd in betting
Scrum Half 0 Youngs 2nd in betting
Back Row 0 Croft 5th in betting
Second Row 0 Parling 3rd in betting
Prop 0 Cole 3rd in betting
Hooker 0 T Youngs 3rd in betting

Of course over a Tour injuries can happen to first choice players

but we have two things here

- strong rumours for example that Robshaw is not even in the squad. This might point to a lower English representation than previously thought.

- This is consistent with Gatland's pro Welsh thoughts and the final match of the Six Nations

Tieing this in to some work I was doing on these markets, I got a first choice Lions team of


Halfpenny
North BOD Roberts Cuthbert
Sexton Phillips
Warburton Faletau Tipuric
O'Connell AWJ
Healy Hibbard A Jones

No English, 11 Welsh


So then, take a look at

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228236

Under 2.5 English in the Test XV is a big bet in my opinion. Lets call in half tikay-kelly, £75 or so

The price here is completely inconsistent with Paddy Power's sub markets via position as outlined above

Either they are wrong, or this quote is wrong, unless we get unlucky on injuries in multiple positions to presumed first choice starters

Playing it the other way, the sub markets have 9 Welsh players in the favourites by position

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/lions-tour-12?ev_oc_grp_ids=1228235

Yet the starting Welsh players market is over 7.5

This is too low. You could have the other half tikay-Kelly on the Overs here

(they are correlated so you might choose to play one or the other)

Preferably done before 11am



edit

On the injuries. In only five positions if a first choice player in the betting is injured is an English player "next up"

Centre, where Tuilagi has a shot behind O'Driscoll and Roberts
Sexton at Fly half
Phillips at scrum half
Tight Head Prop, Dan Cole behind Adam Jones
Second Row where Parling has been played out of the assumed side by O'Connell

Injuries to all more than two of these? It can happen, but that would be unlucky variance

Injuries at fullback, wing, back row, hooker probably don't see English players next up



Announced 15 Welsh, 10 English, 9 Irish, 3 Scots



Only two English three quarters
One English back row
One English second row

downsides two of three hookers English
three of six props English

Don't have these as first choice though