Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

On the subject of e-w darts in the Derby, its quite a good e/w race isn't it

Chopin stood out for me, 3rd highest rated, 10-1


but will defer to the racing experts, and Chompy.

It may be better to wait to the day of the race to see all the offers now.  I would say that German horses seem bound to be overpriced to me.  There is some stamina doubts about the horse, but not severe ones.  I have Ocovango, Libertarian and Ruler of the World e/w already.  Also have the Chompy bet outstanding, so am pretty overloaded on the race already, but may add Chopin too.  All were better prices than now, though also had Magician at 25s . 

I don't think we need to do anything on the Oaks, Moth is a doubtful stayer on pedigree and the third favourite did look a slow old boat, we have laid some off already and we already have a big price on the place as insurance.

FWIW 5 in the Coronation now including two at 40/1 up.  Your bet was good, mine a bit better.

[Marky147]

In situations like this I look for bets (against my original position) that I perceive as +EV (standard), neutral EV (a bet I wouldn't normally make owing to senseless volatility, but that increases my utility in such an instance by decreasing exposure with no reduction in £EV), and even bets where I have a slightly -ve £ expectation (for the same reasons as the neutral EV bets are considered).

The first two basically should be enacted. The latter is a matter of personal preference.

Sorry, overly technical, but essentially what I'm saying is have a look if we can get decent each-way prices in the Derby.

EDIT: I know I took about Moth....that was because I perceived it as a bet with a +ve expectation, and it obviously had the corollary of an implied decrease in volatility.

This, well sort of this...

I bet Moth because Ed said it was a good idea, and he is much smarter than I am

[maldini32]

Hi Tony,

Check your pm's please

Cheers

[BigAdz]

It's just whether you want to take the Camel route, tough it out and not urinate on a pile of bricks, or gay-green it to cover your steak?

What the actual fudge does any of this mean?

"Gay-green it to cover your steak" There are barely two adjacent words that make sense in that.

Ima not sure what to do with my Adrian bet at the mo tbh. Listen, I'm still not sure Moth will handle the track or stay but, listen, I've already had a cover bet on he'm having one Classic winner. Think I'll just watch and shout "Fk off Moth, gtfo Mothy" and so on.

Obv thread's worst result would be a Moth win and a Gesture unplace.

Think you just have to don the pampers and suck this one up tbh.

If your feeling wobbly about our lady, don't read The Weekender......only one of their guys even has her placing.........wtf do they know!!!!

[tikay]

BetFred refused to pay me for Ms Shin.

They said.....

Any bets placed prior to the Monday of the tournament will be deemed “Ante Post” and if the player subsequently does not take part all bets on that player will be deemed losers.


That'll be a £20 loser then.

I then re-checked & found I placed the bet on Tuesday 21st, so it was NOT "prior to  the Monday".

Negotiations have resumed, painfully......

[tikay]

Hi Tony,

Check your pm's please

Cheers

On my way, very shortly.......sorry for delay. Jeeves has failed me of late.

[BigAdz]

On the subject of e-w darts in the Derby, its quite a good e/w race isn't it

Chopin stood out for me, 3rd highest rated, 10-1


but will defer to the racing experts, and Chompy.

It may be better to wait to the day of the race to see all the offers now.  I would say that German horses seem bound to be overpriced to me.  There is some stamina doubts about the horse, but not severe ones.  I have Ocovango, Libertarian and Ruler of the World e/w already.  Also have the Chompy bet outstanding, so am pretty overloaded on the race already, but may add Chopin too.  All were better prices than now, though also had Magician at 25s . 

I don't think we need to do anything on the Oaks, Moth is a doubtful stayer on pedigree and the third favourite did look a slow old boat, we have laid some off already and we already have a big price on the place as insurance.

FWIW 5 in the Coronation now including two at 40/1 up.  Your bet was good, mine a bit better.

And award for  Most Modest Poster of the Year, goes to...........

[tikay]

The annoying thing is I dithered & missed BOTH bet suggestions in the Coronation Cup.

[tikay]

BetFred & Miss Shin.

They have now agreed to VOID the bet, & it should be done in the next 30 minutes.

I'll confirm when they have.

[Doobs]

On the subject of e-w darts in the Derby, its quite a good e/w race isn't it

Chopin stood out for me, 3rd highest rated, 10-1


but will defer to the racing experts, and Chompy.

It may be better to wait to the day of the race to see all the offers now.  I would say that German horses seem bound to be overpriced to me.  There is some stamina doubts about the horse, but not severe ones.  I have Ocovango, Libertarian and Ruler of the World e/w already.  Also have the Chompy bet outstanding, so am pretty overloaded on the race already, but may add Chopin too.  All were better prices than now, though also had Magician at 25s . 

I don't think we need to do anything on the Oaks, Moth is a doubtful stayer on pedigree and the third favourite did look a slow old boat, we have laid some off already and we already have a big price on the place as insurance.

FWIW 5 in the Coronation now including two at 40/1 up.  Your bet was good, mine a bit better.

And award for  Most Modest Poster of the Year, goes to...........

Probably just a small bit up on the Derby book thanks to Magician.  The good bets all down to Chompy, who is the greatest.

[Chompy]

+1

[TightEnd]

There are many ways to pick a horse, but sometimes it pays to look at long-term trends. With help from Channel 4’s Tanya Stevenson, here are some indicators that might help you with your Epsom punting this weekend. Best of luck!

THE OAKS
The last time a horse who ran in the 1,000 Guineas went on to win the Oaks was Casual Look in 2003, who had finished 6th at Newmarket
(This year, Moth was third and Roz finished 10th)
 
Only two of the last 10 Oaks winners had already run in a Group 1
(This year, as well as Moth and Roz, Miss You Too ran in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud last November)

Eight of the last 10 winners of the Investec Oaks finished no worse than second on their most recent start
(Once again, Moth and Roz are negatives on this score, alongside Madame De Farge and The Lark)

On the basis of these stats, market leader Secret Gesture may well be worth supporting, while Liber Nauticus is another fancied entry that avoids all three of these potential pitfalls.

THE DERBY
Since 1993, only three of the 12 unbeaten horses to be priced up favourite for the Derby have actually won the race: Camelot, Motivator & Galileo
(A negative indicator for this year’s favourite, Dawn Approach)
 
None of Aidan O’Brien’s six Chester Derby Trial winners have gone on to glory at Epsom.
(This might suggest Ruler Of The World is punching above his weight)
 
Aidan O’Brien has never won the Derby the seven occasions when fielding four or more runners
(He has five of the 12 runners this time)
   
Since 2000, 10 of 13 Derby winners had won at least a Group 1 or a Group 2 prior to Epsom
(The most high-profile casualties on this score this year are Mars, Ruler Of The World and Chopin. The four horses priced at 33-1 and bigger also fail on this score.
 
Since 2000 every Derby winner with exception of Workforce had won at least a Group 3
(Ruler Of The World and Chopin pass this test; Mars does not)
 
Since 1999 every winner of the Derby has been priced 7-1 or shorter. In fact, nine of the last 10 winners of the Derby came from the first three in the betting.

With reference to all of the above, French hope Ocovango looks a worthwhile options for those looking to take on the hot favourite Dawn Approach. But for the really superstitious watchers, here’s an interesting pointer: eight of the last 26 Derby winners were drawn in stall 10 - and that’s where Ruler Of The World will break from on Saturday at 4.00.

[tikay]

+1

Sigh. Never fails.

Our Daily Updaters refers to you as "Loser of the Day".

[Marky147]

Wolves market still open and Jackett's price collapsed this morning.  He moved from 4/1 with some in to 1/2 best priced, and 1/3 with Corals who have always been the ones to take him on.

[BigAdz]

Cool Marky

Although I was looking forward to using my "No Jackett Required" headline, when someone else got the job......