Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Updates on some longer term bets

First baseball

Thread has

Kansas City Royals to win the lot at 80-1 e/w

Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL East, AL and the lot at 100-30, 12, 20-1 respectively 

Boston Red Sox to win the AL East covering the Rays at 4-1

We are approaching the All Star break at mid season and the standings are as follows

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/standings/?eref=sinav

The Red Sox are winning the mighty and competitive AL East, a game and a half ahead of the perennially under-estimated Orioles

The Rays are 5 games behind. This is surmountable with a winning run

The Royals are at a 50% win record and 5 games behind the Detroit Tigers, who have been overwhelming favourites to win tthe conference all season - talent, payroll considerations. They are good and can spend to improve if need be

The Royals have though won 8 of the last 10. More needed to give that bet a shout

[TightEnd]

Dogs

The Greyhound Derby Quarter Finals are on Tuesday

We have two dogs left

Farloe Warhawk and Jaytee Hellcat, backed at 33-1 and 100-1 respectively

Farloe currently 12-1, Jaytee 25-1 behind favourites Ballymacs Vic and Eske around 3-4 to 1

The Quarterfinal draw sees our two go in the same heat

Tuesday June 18
Heat 1

    Sidaz Jack
    Tyrur Sugar Ray
    Shaneboy Spencer
    Farloe Warhawk
    Hather George (m)
    Jaytee Hellcat (m)

top 3 through to the semis....

[TightEnd]

I talk about the cricket season stuff and Vettel a lot so won't reprise those today

Elsewhere we have Huybrechts at 50-1 for the 2014 PDC. Bazzaboy to update on that one NOW 33/1

TdeF

Nairo Quintana 33-1 e/w for the TDeF. Cheapwetsuit for that one NOW 25-1

Richie Porte for TDeF 29/1 win and e/w Tonji for that one NOW 20/1

Long term Horses

Libertarian e/w and Telescope for the Leger at 8/1 and 14/1 NOW 6/1 AND 25/1
Camelot for the Eclipse NOW 6/1
Orfevre 6/1 and Ocovango 25/1 for the Arc

Australia to win the Test Series at 2.48. First of three tests this weekend NOW 2.7

Royal Ascot Free Bet Portfolio

Sea Siren 12/1 Diamond Jubilee NOW 12/1
Sir John Hawkins 12/1 Coventry NOW 6/1
Reckless Abandon 7/1 Kings Stand NOW 13/2
Declaration of War 12/1 Queen Anne NOW 17/2
The Fugue 8/1 Prince of Wales NOW 7/1

[superwomble]

I think Fred is on Australia to win the Test series.

[TightEnd]

I think Fred is on Australia to win the Test series.

my mistake, Australia yes

[Jamier-Host]

Alternatively, the 2-1 on Nigeria getting more than 4 looks more than fair as well.

Not sure i'd get too carried away on the Tahiti thrashing line of thought. Sporting Index have the Nigeria goals line at 3.45-3.65 and they would usually have this on the high side expecting the mug money to pile on the overs.

Nigeria aren't really fancied for the tournament - are they good enough to smash them?

[horseplayer]

tahiti are woeful

however personally despite it being a stereotype Nigeria are not to be relied on and have a history of making very hard work of beating lesser sides

the fact the spread boys have the goals line set relatively low as jamier says is a good guide

the squad is hardly full of prolific goalscorers that is another problem the 3-1 eway on the bet we have had looks ok to me as he has recently taken on penalty duties from Obi Mikel (yes that one the prolific goal scoring defensive sitter)

[pokerfan]

One for Tal, Bale to PSG 25-1 Stan J. They are reportedly going to bid 85 million for his services.

Value ?

[Doobs]

Alternatively, the 2-1 on Nigeria getting more than 4 looks more than fair as well.

Not sure i'd get too carried away on the Tahiti thrashing line of thought. Sporting Index have the Nigeria goals line at 3.45-3.65 and they would usually have this on the high side expecting the mug money to pile on the overs.

Nigeria aren't really fancied for the tournament - are they good enough to smash them?

Agree with all of this.  I did look at the spreads too.  I think the bet must be value, but we are likely to get better value if they offer the same terms in the Spain match in 3 days.  But just because we get better value in 3 days doesn't mean we shouldn't take a bit of value today.

Backing big scores doesn't look like it should be value, ad everyone knows Nigeria are better than Tahiti.

[TightEnd]

One for Hector to comment on please

The Lions play the Brumbies tomorrow

The Brumbies are the top Australian side

The side they have selected tomorrow has 12 of the 15 players who started their last Super 15 game
They finished top of the Super15 league, with the play offs to come, ahead of all the New Zealand teams
Only one team beat them in Canberra this year

http://www.lionsrugby.com/2013tour/match_centre_2013.php?section=lineups&fixid=169133

The Lions team is mix and match

36 year old Shane Williams is off the plane from Japan to fill in at wing
Barritt is off a beach in America and straight into the line up
Wade and Twelvetrees are straight from Argentina, both very talented though
Up front the front row has two tour replacements starting in Grant and Best
Hogg plays at fly half, Kearney starts his first game of the tour

the focus here is entirely in protecting players who may play in the saturday first test, and as a result the Lions Line up simply looks odd

The real area of lions strength in the back row is Tipuric and O'Brien alongside Falatau. That area aside, this is a team that could well be under-cooked for arguably the toughest non test game of the Tour

www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/brumbies-v-lions/handicaps

Bet365 will give you the Brumbies at Evens (no taking the spread on both sides 5/6 the pair as normal) with an 11 point start

I think that's a very sporting bet, and much more likely to cop than the Waratahs +20 against basically the Lions test team last Saturday.

A preview is c and p'ed below

"Rory Best will lead the Lions into their sixth game on tour looking to maintain their 100 per cent record. The Brumbies are the top team in Australia, are coached by the former South African World Cup winning coach Jake White and they can smell blood.

Not only that, they will have revenge in mind after the cruel way in which a famous win over the Lions was snatched from their grasp in the dying seconds of a thrilling match at the same venue 12 years ago. Austin Healey's try and Matt Dawson's conversion saved the Lions on that day as they emerged winners by 30-28.

All the ingredients are there for another nail-biter, especially as the Lions have had to patch up their back division with four recruits. While Billy Twelvetrees, Christian Wade and Brad Barritt will make their Lions debuts, Shane Williams will make the most unlikely return to the international stage at the ripe old age of 36.

For one night only the Welsh try scoring machine has been asked to raise his standards from the Japanese league, where he is currently in the dying embers of one of the great careers, to match the best Super Rugby has to offer. Throw in Stuart Hogg at outside half, and Rob Kearney making his first start on tour at full back, and the Lions back line looks more like a patchwork quilt than anything else.

But head coach Warren Gatland has never been averse to taking a risk, and his gamble on patching up the midweek side ahead of Saturday's first Test in Brisbane makes perfect sense. It is a case of giving players time to recover from injury, not risking others and wrapping in cotton wool the players he needs to tackle the Qantas Wallabies at Suncorp Stadium at the weekend.

He has also set high standards for the team who will be defending his side's unbeaten record in the Australian capital on Tuesday night. They have everything to play for he says.

"If people play well and put their hand up then we expect to have a few selection headaches. We are undefeated at the moment and even if you are playing on Tuesday you won't want to be part of a Lions side that is going pretty well and loses," he said.

"We want to go as long as we can undefeated because then the scalp just becomes bigger and bigger. The players who play on Tuesday will bear the responsibilities of keeping it going.

"They have a chance to put up their hand to be selected for the Test side, but they also have to keep the momentum and morale in the squad going. That's going to be key for us."

Whatever the result on Tuesday night it is not going to derail either the Lions or the Qantas Wallabies. But it might just give the Lions a slight psychological lift if they can make it six from six.

The Brumbies will have full back Jesse Mogg trying to make an impression after he was unfortunate to be left out of the Qantas Wallabies squad and they will have the bulk of the squad that has helped them win the Australian Conference and head into the play-offs of Super Rugby this year.

It would have been a potential banana-skin game in the week of the first Test in any case, but given the Lions injuries it is going to be an even bigger challenge. Only the Crusaders have won in Canberra this season - can the Lions match that achievement?"

http://www.lionsrugby.com/2013tour/12164.php

[BigAdz]

One for Tal, Bale to PSG 25-1 Stan J. They are reportedly going to bid 85 million for his services.

Value ?

Not at 85 mill, no......!

[Tal]

One for Tal, Bale to PSG 25-1 Stan J. They are reportedly going to bid 85 million for his services.

Value ?

Not at 85 mill, no......!

I wake up to this??!



I think if a team rings Daniel Levy and offers mad money, he might well go.

However, there's little reason for the player to want to go to France. Spain I can understand. I don't think a German side is likely to bid. The player isn't money oriented, or at least has shown no signs of it as yet.

I also think Spurs realise he'll still be a very valuable commodity in 12 months' time, provided he can still walk.

If you want to take the price, by all means do so, but (at the risk of stating the obvious) the bookies setting a market at 25/1 seems like an indication of how likely they think it is he will go.

[Snowball]

One for Tal, Bale to PSG 25-1 Stan J. They are reportedly going to bid 85 million for his services.

Value ?

Not at 85 mill, no......!

 The player isn't money oriented, or at least has shown no signs of it as yet.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/world-of-sport/gareth-bale-owns-trademark-own-celebration-071409359.html

[hector62]

Mr Tighty.

I kind of feel the Brumbies match will go 1 of 2 ways, the Lions easily cover the spread or lose a close game. I have backed the Brumbies at 9-2 and I hope that all those not selected for the test team are sulking and those who weren't picked for the tour are not at all bothered. I do like Twelvetrees though and Wade looks very elusive but it will all depend on what the forwards attitude is. Whether it is best to go for the spread option or risk the outright bet will take someone with a better brain than mine.

[Tal]

One for Tal, Bale to PSG 25-1 Stan J. They are reportedly going to bid 85 million for his services.

Value ?

Not at 85 mill, no......!

 The player isn't money oriented, or at least has shown no signs of it as yet.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/world-of-sport/gareth-bale-owns-trademark-own-celebration-071409359.html

First reaction is that's bizarre but then he does do it as a goal celebration and if he's going to create a brand, it's commercially savvy to do so.

I said money-oriented, not financially aware