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Dubai
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« Reply #44190 on: June 26, 2013, 10:45:45 PM » |
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Fair play to you. Yeah bet on.
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MereNovice
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« Reply #44191 on: June 26, 2013, 10:47:21 PM » |
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Fair play to you. Yeah bet on.
Excellent. Good luck. |
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Reigning Blonde Fantasy Ashes and Super League Champions
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Newportlad
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« Reply #44192 on: June 26, 2013, 10:50:30 PM » |
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So, basically, in this year of huge upsets you're recommending that Fred bets at 8/11 that Djokovic wins 6 matches in a row with the back-up that if he doesn't we can get a free bet if Murray wins 5 matches in a row?
I am yet to be convinced.
Yes! You think that because there have been huge upsets, that it is less likely that Djokovic or Murray will win? You are in effect saying that they have more chance of winning Wimbledon if Nadal and Federer were still in. I really cannot see it being a Haas vs Janowicz final. |
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doubleup
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« Reply #44193 on: June 26, 2013, 11:20:48 PM » |
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free money
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MereNovice
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« Reply #44194 on: June 26, 2013, 11:33:21 PM » |
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So, basically, in this year of huge upsets you're recommending that Fred bets at 8/11 that Djokovic wins 6 matches in a row with the back-up that if he doesn't we can get a free bet if Murray wins 5 matches in a row?
I am yet to be convinced.
Yes! You think that because there have been huge upsets, that it is less likely that Djokovic or Murray will win? You are in effect saying that they have more chance of winning Wimbledon if Nadal and Federer were still in. I really cannot see it being a Haas vs Janowicz final. The offer is still valid until the start of round 3 so we could wait and see what happens tomorrow. Presumably Djokovic's price isn't likely to change much if he wins tomorrow. Fred has a tradition of accepting first time tips so I'm edging towards putting £55 of tikay's money on this. |
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doubleup
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« Reply #44195 on: June 26, 2013, 11:38:01 PM » |
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put the £100 on now! The offer won't last.
Look at what I did on betfair - you can hedge any you don't want. I win most if neither win (which seems to be your preference).
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MereNovice
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« Reply #44196 on: June 26, 2013, 11:42:14 PM » |
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put the £100 on now! The offer won't last.
Look at what I did on betfair - you can hedge any you don't want. I win most if neither win (which seems to be your preference).
The offer is guaranteed until round 3. Conditions
Applies to single bets placed on the Wimbledon Men's outright market before the start of Round 3 only.
Applies to win part of each-way bets only.
Max refund E100/£100 per customer.
Paddy Power Tennis rules apply. |
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #44197 on: June 27, 2013, 12:27:18 AM » |
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Fred is such a nice place, no arguing or nastiness. I loved reading Super Womble's post asking for feedback on the top scoring first Prem team, someone pointed out the shocks last year and that 9/2 in a 20-horse race ain't all that exciting and no arguing, just a yeh, good points there, fair enough...that's why Fred's a nice place.
Not sure I'm a fan of two of Fred's favourites betting against each other, can't u just bet with the bookie instead if u feel that strongly Dave? No arguing or falling out over it right?!
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Dubai
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« Reply #44198 on: June 27, 2013, 12:31:38 AM » |
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Yeah good point, I don't even care about winning the money, will cancel my bet as long as Mere has £100 with Paddy for Fred  Its just a bet where we don't need to evaluate it, the maths is just too strong for it to be a bad bet, basically meaning the betfair market would need to be so far out of line for our bet to be bad, which I just cant see ever being the case. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #44199 on: June 27, 2013, 12:41:58 AM » |
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It really is a no brainer I think. In fact it is probably the best bet in EV terms since the Cheltenham offer on the Supreme Novices.
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JaffaCake
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« Reply #44200 on: June 27, 2013, 01:13:22 AM » |
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oh don't say that, that means it's a must bet? Sigh....on as well then!
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Doobs
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« Reply #44201 on: June 27, 2013, 01:36:58 AM » |
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It really is a no brainer I think. In fact it is probably the best bet in EV terms since the Cheltenham offer on the Supreme Novices.
We had better at Ascot. . No brainer for me too. PP not restricting? |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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cheapwetsuit
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« Reply #44202 on: June 27, 2013, 01:39:35 AM » |
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It really is a no brainer I think. In fact it is probably the best bet in EV terms since the Cheltenham offer on the Supreme Novices.
We had better at Ascot. . No brainer for me too. PP not restricting? Gone for it as well. Pretty much a free roll barring any major upsets. Cue foot in mouth. |
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MereNovice
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« Reply #44203 on: June 27, 2013, 04:47:03 AM » |
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Yeah good point, I don't even care about winning the money, will cancel my bet as long as Mere has £100 with Paddy for Fred Its just a bet where we don't need to evaluate it, the maths is just too strong for it to be a bad bet, basically meaning the betfair market would need to be so far out of line for our bet to be bad, which I just cant see ever being the case. Absolutely no chance of anyone falling out. I'd like your bet to stand unless you have personal rules about fleecing ice-creams. |
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MereNovice
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« Reply #44204 on: June 27, 2013, 04:53:45 AM » |
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I understand the maths of the bet and am aware of the record of the top four in grand slams.
I just can't get myself to believe that 8/11 is a good price (even with the Murray offer).
However, wiser heads than me are insistent.
So, we have "invested" £100 of tikay's money.
On
Credit goes to NewportLad unless someone tells me differently.
PaddyPower
Bet receipt
Your selections
Mens Wimbledon Mens Wimbledon Outright 2013
07-07-2013 13:00
Outright Betting
N Djokovic @ 8/11
Your Bets
Win
Single: N Djokovic @ 8/11
1 line at £100.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £100.00
Potential returns: £172.73
No: O/22838217/0000143
Total stake: £100.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £100.00
Your bet has been placed successfully
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