Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Shah injured and Ravi still too injured to bowl or would be a max. Shah pretty big blow as been in great form and really csn switch gears. Evens wrong but was no need to take 10/11 because probably will be 10/11 each of two across the line later. I'd favour Essex still as Pettini decent opener and hopefully they don't go with Smith at 3 and just move Ravi up. Fancy Rutherford to get a load, in top nick and just hits the ball so clean

If you make Essex 4/6 you need to be taking the 14/1 to win whole thing because if they win tomoro they will have home Qf where will be 4/5 5/6 shot. Simple maths then tells u 14/1 is too big

Ahh, thanks, all understood.

So, do we still really think they are 4/6 shots tomorrow?

If so, we ought to speculate a little on that 14/1.........

[Dubai]

Without Shah I don't make them 4/6. I do make them favourites tho, and as for 14/1 it's with Stan James so gl!

[tikay]

Crikey, all the cricket experts are now reading the thread.

More opinions incoming on Essex to win tomorrow, & outright......

[tikay]

Without Shah I don't make them 4/6. I do make them favourites tho, and as for 14/1 it's with Stan James so gl!

Bet365 also go 14/1.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/friends-life-t20/winner

EDIT - But they will only permit me £1.43.

[TightEnd]

Through with a home draw to the Quarters


Northants (get in, come on, one time...)
Hampshire
Notts
Essex or Surrey

Away draw

Lancs
Essex or Surrey or Middlesex
two of Somerset, Warwicks, Glamorgan, Durham

Best teams are the three so far in for a home quarter, certainly this is unarguable in the case of Hampshire and Notts but thats in prices

A home draw is big because you can rig the deck by preparing to suit you depending on your opponent. Hampshire are notorious for this, some of their T20 pitches are like Ahmedabad on a day 5 Test.

Once a team makes finals day (semis, final in one day) anyone can win it so the trick is to get value now

I put ripple11 off Essex earlier (apologies) because

- inconsistency in batting
- one dimensional attack: not the greatest of options f you need to take pace off

That said, particularly because Rutherford has been lights out good they've performed better than that

14-1 is a fair price for a punt. Will be in at 10-1 (Dubai, yes?) if they get a home quarter

[Tal]

Spurs will sell Gareth Bale to Real Madrid for £85 PLUS a player

Posted by DailyMail 3 mins ago

Daniel Levy will reluctantly bow to Gareth Bale’s desire to leave Tottenham if Real Madrid offer a world record £85million — plus a player.

News but not news, I suppose. Maybe it is worth a dabble at this Ladbrokes bet if it's still open.

This is an interview with the man himself:

http://www.esquire.co.uk/style/esquire-men/4489/gareth-bale-cover-story/

Then there is the freak statistic that Bale managed to play 24 matches for Spurs – 1,533 minutes – over two seasons before the team won a game. That is the longest run of games by any player in Premier League history without being on the winning side. It’s said that when Harry Redknapp announced his name in the team line-up, Bale’s team-mates – OK, David Bentley mainly – would actually groan. The run was only stopped when Redknapp sent him on as a substitute in the 85th minute against Burnley, when Spurs were leading four-nil. Surely that bothered him? “It was just a laugh and a joke really,” says Bale. “But against Burnley, I do remember Harry saying, ‘If it gets to four-all when you’re on, I’m taking you off.’”

He also mentions liking spanish football best but leagues where no one defends and you're a midfielder who loves running at isolated fullbacks are going to be attractive!

[Dubai]

With a home qf they will be 6/1/13/2 and 3rd favs

[TightEnd]

With a home qf they will be 6/1/13/2 and 3rd favs

Logically therefore, I have to make Essex a bet at 14-1 as I expect them to win tomorrow night quite confidently

[tikay]

With a home qf they will be 6/1/13/2 and 3rd favs

Logically therefore, I have to make Essex a bet at 14-1 as I expect them to win tomorrow night quite confidently

Well I cannot get on with 365 or Stan James, but I CAN get 12/1 with Wm Hill.

I have taken £50 on my own (off-thread) Account, & Fred can have some or all of that if we decide 12/1 is acceptable.

I note that gherkin is typing a Post right now, lets see what he has to say.

[Dubai]

Of course. That's why I said if you make them any shorter than 10/11 got to be a bet as they will be 4/5 in qf and we can assume they will never be the outsider of 4 on finals day. I think taking 3/1 as a cautious average for finals day is fine so the acca is 12.5/1. Obv the shorter you make them tomoro the shorter the acca, if they were 4/6 would be 11/1 acca. That's assuming 4/5 which might be on the big side in a home qf

[horseplayer]

Raining still at Goodwood.


15mm of rain since 6am

good, good to soft places.. apparently.


 

[tikay]

Raining still at Goodwood.


15mm of rain since 6am

good, good to soft places.. apparently.


 

Could well end up as Outsiders City, & I think we need to go a bit steady with our Goodwood bets until normality returns. Some of the 2 y-o's will have never encountered easy ground before.

I was heartened to see that Spirit of the Law has winning form on soft ground.

[TightEnd]

47 years ago today

[tikay]

Wow at the memory of England winning the World Cup.

I watched the match in the most unexpected of places, but I remember it as if it were yesterday.

47 years, wtf?!

[horseplayer]

My whole theory with it is appears the horse has improved (or at least ran just as well) for Fahey on good/good to firm ground were as previously all best form with former trainer was on soft ground.

Might just be the horse has improved in general and is not as ground reliant