Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

It's only 2/7. I know if you say they're 1/6, that's a chunky percentage difference, but that looks to me like poor bankroll management.

It's a very good bet, but lock up £140 to win £40 in April (ish) and keep within our means.

Well that was why I suggested £350 as the upper max is about £300 (tho it makes sense to have £350 at the price) tho could obv have 210 but it feels like iy should be higher.

[Chompy]

Not sure bankroll management comes into it tbh, as we're betting out of a bottomless pit...

I find it hard to see Watford being out of the top half and 2/7 is valoo alright. No point tiddlearsing around at that price, though, either smash it or leave it.

[horseplayer]

agreed at 2-7 need to have at least £800 on it to make it worthwhile with the time scale involved

[Tal]

agreed at 2-7 need to have at least £800 on it to make it worthwhile with the time scale involved

This is precisely my point.

It's one thing for Tikay to invest £800 of his "down the back of the sofa" money, but Fred has a notional roll and he uses this to help judge his bet sizes.

Am I being pernickety, pernicious or pertinent?

[redarmi]

It's only 2/7. I know if you say they're 1/6, that's a chunky percentage difference, but that looks to me like poor bankroll management.

It's a very good bet, but lock up £140 to win £40 in April (ish) and keep within our means.

Well that was why I suggested £350 as the upper max is about £300 (tho it makes sense to have £350 at the price) tho could obv have 210 but it feels like iy should be higher.

What price do we think this should be realistically?  Is it really an edge that deserves a bigger bet.  We are working on a theoretical 3k bank if it was a true 1/10 shot which I am pretty sure it isn't then using half kelly it would be a gbp205 bet.  Betting 350 would be just under the full kelly amount but that doesn't take into consideration time value of money etc.  I have no issue with the fact the bet is value but the approach to staking seems wrong to me and betting 700 or more would be a huge mistake.

[Tal]

Nathan Lyon is the most capped Aussie never to have played against England in a test.

[DungBeetle]

I can't see Watford finishing outside the top half to be honest.  More signings to come as well - the Algerian defender Belkalem is joining according to local sources - he is the big unit we were perhaps missing from last year.

Hogg will also be replaced after he got homesick and moved to Huddersfield

Interestingly we have  no loans at present as they want to be able to tap up the big boys for some youngsters to bloat the squad further.  Powell of Man Utd is the name on the fan forums yesterday/today who seems the most likely.  Not sure we even need him, but boosting numbers can't be bad with 46 league games.

2/7 seems a fine price - but whether we want to tie up funds for a year at a short price is another matter.

[horseplayer]

Tikay will you be around for fred duty at around 2.15pm tommorow?

Thanks

[tikay]

Tikay will you be around for fred duty at around 2.15pm tommorow?

Thanks

Sure will Mr Horse.

I am toying with the idea of going down to Brighton tomorrow to play their £200 2 day thing, but it does not start until 5pm, so if I do go, it will not be until after 3pm. I need to find a way to win £350 to fund my betting habit, too.

[tikay]

What's the current super max bet amount please?

For day to day stuff, £150.

For "Specials" we have no upper limit as such, we have had as much as £600 I think, we just need to be sensible on a case by case basis. Our Super Max bets tend to be the long term things.

£1,000 on Sheffield Utd was it?

haha that was last year.


Dung Beetle has his finger bang on the pulse of what is happening at Watford and was telling us on the Championship thread that they were re signing/signing players long before they were officially announced. At that stage they were around 14/1 to win the Div and 1/3-2/7 to finish in the top half.

Since then the  signings have become common knowledge and the outright price has shortened to 10/1 and the top half finish has shortened to around 1/6 with a few firms , good old Hills tho are still the same price at 2/7 than they were 4 weeks ago. This just looks a really good bet at that price. Stan have also left the price the same at 1/4 in their top 12 market, which is the same thing.

Think it's worth having a cash to cash bet of £350 at 2/7 Watford to finish in the top half of the Championship with Hills

Am not going to do a Chompy or Dubai, but this looks terrific value.

£350 it is.

Confirmation to follow, and a lovely 9 month sweat.

[Chompy]

This Watford bet depends entirely on whether or not a betting bank is in place. I don't use one. Don't see the need to. It's not poker.

If this is a 2/7 shot that should be 1/6 and the bettor is happy tieing up a chunk for ten months, then press on. I just can't see any point putting less than a bag on at that price over that time period.

You definitely want Nick Powell Dung imo, guy is going to be special.

[bobby1]

It's only 2/7. I know if you say they're 1/6, that's a chunky percentage difference, but that looks to me like poor bankroll management.

It's a very good bet, but lock up £140 to win £40 in April (ish) and keep within our means.

Well that was why I suggested £350 as the upper max is about £300 (tho it makes sense to have £350 at the price) tho could obv have 210 but it feels like iy should be higher.

What price do we think this should be realistically?  Is it really an edge that deserves a bigger bet.  We are working on a theoretical 3k bank if it was a true 1/10 shot which I am pretty sure it isn't then using half kelly it would be a gbp205 bet.  Betting 350 would be just under the full kelly amount but that doesn't take into consideration time value of money etc.  I have no issue with the fact the bet is value but the approach to staking seems wrong to me and betting 700 or more would be a huge mistake.

I think it's about 1/7, when did we introduce Kelly?

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight's super league sees Wigan entertaining Hull KR. Wigan should win comfortably and so I have been looking at the Wigan players for a decent try scorer bet. The main players are too short for me but with Liam Farrell being rested it gives an opportunity for Chris Tuson to play a bigger role. Tuson has scored 8 tries in 16 appearances this season, a lot of them as substitute. That number makes him break even at Evens, however a number of other factors need to be factored in. Wigan are at home, and playing the team with the 5th worst defence both of which mean Wigan should score more tries than average. If we then add the fact that Tuson is going to get a lot more minutes on the field then the 9/4 we can get make him an attractive bet.

Suggest Tuson to score a try at anytime £20 @ 9/4 with Paddy Power.

[Chompy]

Get ready...

£100 on J Wonder, 11-4 Lads, 2.55 Newmarket tomorrow.

Reasoning to follow.

[horseplayer]

Tikay will you be around for fred duty at around 2.15pm tommorow?

Thanks

Sure will Mr Horse.

I am toying with the idea of going down to Brighton tomorrow to play their £200 2 day thing, but it does not start until 5pm, so if I do go, it will not be until after 3pm. I need to find a way to win £350 to fund my betting habit, too.

Good point

I have a real banzai for a season long sweat (potentially) but i need confirmation said player is at least starting the first game of the season first