Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

I have been pondering a couple of bets for this afternoon. If the weather was better I would suggest Huddersfield to win by 50 points against Salford, but the forecast showers are not good for that.

Instead I am  going for Castleford to cause an upset and beat Warrington, who played badly last week bar the first and last 10 minutes of the game. Last year Warrington rested a number of key people when they played London away and we had a decent scoop for Fred. Today they are resting Hodgson and the hooker Monaghan, 2 of the people who give the team direction. Obviously Warrington should still be favourites but the 5-1 we get ( 11-2 skybet ) is just too big.

I have no wish to be hit with the Chompy nitty bet stick so I am suggesting a bet of 3x the FGS bet.

Suggest Castleford £15 @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes or Boyles.

24-12 so far.  Looking good

Oh wow, good luck hector!

[redarmi]

On the Champs manager thing I think the price is about 7/4-2/1 range.

[TightEnd]

On the Champs manager thing I think the price is about 7/4-2/1 range.

Sky bet, who as part of their League sponsorship offered to put up a range of prices in markets not offered, offered 4/1 on Friday to me

So tikay was right (possible inside info!)

Its an intuitive thing, no maths to go on, but I thought 4/1 was a reasonable punt/sweat.

[redarmi]

On the Champs manager thing I think the price is about 7/4-2/1 range.

Sky bet, who as part of their League sponsorship offered to put up a range of prices in markets not offered, offered 4/1 on Friday to me

So tikay was right (possible inside info!)

Its an intuitive thing, no maths to go on, but I thought 4/1 was a reasonable punt/sweat.

That seems value to me.  It is a really tricky thing to price but it seems to me that panic sets in far too quickly.  For example teams like Wigan, Watford could easily make a switch if they start badly even though they have recently changed.  Also these things tend to be done on historical stats and I think teams are more likely to change now and some teams (QPR? Leicester?) might even make a change if their team loses a couple of games but is in the playoff positions.

[doubleup]

Gary Neville was on Sky Ashes earlier

this is a good cutting, from back in the day

Click to see full-size image.

I heard Joe Hart on TMS yesterday, apparently he is quite a useful cricketer, too, used to play in the league stuff in the Telford area.  

Wonder what Sir Geoffrey would make of his footwork? And what is Barny Boatman doing there?

Click to see full-size image.

Andy Goram, Rangers keeper during the 1990s, played cricket for Scotland.

Scotland play football?

fyp

[kinboshi]

Afternoon Mr T.

I have been pondering a couple of bets for this afternoon. If the weather was better I would suggest Huddersfield to win by 50 points against Salford, but the forecast showers are not good for that.

Instead I am  going for Castleford to cause an upset and beat Warrington, who played badly last week bar the first and last 10 minutes of the game. Last year Warrington rested a number of key people when they played London away and we had a decent scoop for Fred. Today they are resting Hodgson and the hooker Monaghan, 2 of the people who give the team direction. Obviously Warrington should still be favourites but the 5-1 we get ( 11-2 skybet ) is just too big.

I have no wish to be hit with the Chompy nitty bet stick so I am suggesting a bet of 3x the FGS bet.

Suggest Castleford £15 @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes or Boyles.

24-12 so far.  Looking good

Oh wow, good luck hector!

Bugger.

[The Camel]

Who gave Chompy the keys to this car all of a sudden?

Yup, special weekend pass. Been quite a thrill tbh. Guest updaters every so often definitely the way forward.

Galway? Back Dermot's three and drink beer?

Pissed bloke in Mulholland's bookie opposite the hotel this morning (it was about noon so being pissed was in order) got talking to me and said he owned a share of Darwins Fox in the first and it adored heavy ground and would definitely win.

Yeah right mate.

Turned up and couldn't resist the temptation of popping down to the parade ring to see if the 100/1 shot of him being there came in.

Weighed in, weighed in.

There he was nattering away to Henry de Bromhead.

So I had to play didn't I?



Still working on the beer.

[tikay]

7:15 Henlow - T3 Killala Star - 6/4 Ladbrokes/BetFred

Lots of positives for this dog in the race tonight.

For a start, it's the fastest greyhound in the race which is obviously a good starting point. In career best form showing excellent early pace and this switch to 428m (rather than 460m) should be a positive having been touched off two of last 5 having led all 5 races.

Plus, we have 3 dogs having their first look round Henlow and of those with recent Henlow form he has a couple of lengths in hand over the 460m whilst he will arguably be better over this shorter trip.

Will go off evens or shorter.

Recommend £20.

This is Live on Channel 212, starts in 8 minutes.

Currently a 5/4 shot generally.

[tikay]

^^^^

Evens now.....

[tikay]

So, Plan B it is.......

[scotty2hatty]

Poor run, apologies if anyone else got on.

[horseplayer]

beat the price by miles which is all anybody can do

it is very encouraging for thread that most selections of late start shorter than when suggested

Worth adding an SP column to the spreadsheet Tikay?

[BigAdz]

Not being negative about having an SP column, but based on the fact we move pretty much every niche market with one or two bets from forum members as proved by loads of bets recently, it doesn't really prove anything, and whilst a tiny additional extra work for Mere, its still work.



Although just read it again, it is negative, but you know what I'm getting at.

[horseplayer]

fair point

in more established races like day of race markets it would be a nice thing to see but in the more longer term stuff agreed they just cut anyway

[LeedsRhodesy]

Inter Milan have won just once in last 11 (lost . Valencia value at 17/10 in tonight's friendly thoughts?