Tips for Tikay

[JoeBeevers]

At what point do Man Utd become a bet from the Premier League?

11/4 at the moment on Betfair.

Can't see how they are third favourites.

I agree and think that this is massive. Have already had some matched at 3.7 and may press.

[horseplayer]

BET SUGGESTION JESUS NAVAS MOST ASSISTS IN PREMIERSHIP 25-1 PADDYPOWER SUGGEST £10 EWAY (first 4)


I have mooted this last week but with Paddy Power going 25-1 i think the doubts that do engulf a market like this are compensated in this price.

Paddy Power use Premierleague.com to settle on this market. I think this is vital and could provide a small edge. Below are last seasons Top9 from premierleague.com

1    Juan Mata       17
2    Eden Hazard       16
3    Robin van Persie       15
4    Carlos Tevez       14
5    Santi Cazorla       13
5    Steven Gerrard       13
5    Theo Walcott       13
8    David Silva       12
9    Lukas Podolski       10
9    Wayne Rooney       10
9    Luis Suarez       10
9    Fernando Torres   10

The key with Paddy using this settlement method is that in the past 5 seasons to achieve a placed payout you must have played for a top 4 club. This eliminates a lot of players albeit mainly bigger priced ones. This differs slightly from Opta, i have made an educated guess that perhaps Premierleague.com are more generous in awarding assists which in turn slightly favours the top 4 finishers who have more attacking situations(in general)

POSITIVES :

Based on the last 3 seasons Navas would have come at least 9th, however factoring in the slightly more generous recording method used we can add at least 2 assists on.

He is playing for a side who will finish top 4 (almost certainly)

He should play the majority of games.

Last seasons winner Mata and to a lesser extent Hazard will not play as many league games as last season. Chelsea now have at least 7 options for 3 positions and whilst they should still play enough games each Mata is extremely unlikely to start 90% of games again.

To a lesser extent the addition of Navas and Jovetic should take away some assists from a big rival David Silva.

Based on Pellegrini and his history Man City should take a more attacking approach this season and in turn score more goals/more potential for assists.

Negatives :

Has in the past shown homesickness, small chance he will not take to the premier league at all.

First season may take time to adjust and with a big squad may be integrated in to the side slowly.


At 25-1 i have taken the chance, with slight doubts around some of the market leaders and the necessity to play for a top 4 side i think the bet makes sense. At a bigger price Adam Johnson makes some appeal based on his massive upturn in assists since Di Canio took over end of last season (6 of his 8 arriving after Di Canio arrived) at 50-1 i would not  put anyone off but he does have the top 4 stat against him.

[Tal]

Not to dissuade you in the slightest, but this caught my eye yesterday:


@OptaJoe

1 – Jesus Navas assisted just one of Alvaro Negredo’s 25 goals in La Liga last season. Strangers.

[horseplayer]

Not to dissuade you in the slightest, but this caught my eye yesterday:


@OptaJoe

1 – Jesus Navas assisted just one of Alvaro Negredo’s 25 goals in La Liga last season. Strangers.

That was meant to go in the negatives!

I have no stats to back this up but from memory because Navas whips the ball in early quite a lot Negredo often benefited from a flick on/pass after the cross.

[BigAdz]

Horsey. Not a market I am too familiar with, but how does Cazorla figure to you(price/value wise)?

Seems to have done well last year coming fifth from a standing start, and even in an unchanged Arsenal squad, he will still play the majority of games, and as he is established will probably be the focal point of most moves.

[horseplayer]

Horsey. Not a market I am too familiar with, but how does Cazorla figure to you(price/value wise)?

Seems to have done well last year coming fifth from a standing start, and even in an unchanged Arsenal squad, he will still play the majority of games, and as he is established will probably be the focal point of most moves.

A massive threat and i think i would have him joint favourite

I make Navas about a 14-1 shot

[tikay]

BET SUGGESTION JESUS NAVAS MOST ASSISTS IN PREMIERSHIP 25-1 PADDYPOWER SUGGEST £10 EWAY (first 4)


I have mooted this last week but with Paddy Power going 25-1 i think the doubts that do engulf a market like this are compensated in this price.

Paddy Power use Premierleague.com to settle on this market. I think this is vital and could provide a small edge. Below are last seasons Top9 from premierleague.com

1    Juan Mata       17
2    Eden Hazard       16
3    Robin van Persie       15
4    Carlos Tevez       14
5    Santi Cazorla       13
5    Steven Gerrard       13
5    Theo Walcott       13
8    David Silva       12
9    Lukas Podolski       10
9    Wayne Rooney       10
9    Luis Suarez       10
9    Fernando Torres   10

The key with Paddy using this settlement method is that in the past 5 seasons to achieve a placed payout you must have played for a top 4 club. This eliminates a lot of players albeit mainly bigger priced ones. This differs slightly from Opta, i have made an educated guess that perhaps Premierleague.com are more generous in awarding assists which in turn slightly favours the top 4 finishers who have more attacking situations(in general)

POSITIVES :

Based on the last 3 seasons Navas would have come at least 9th, however factoring in the slightly more generous recording method used we can add at least 2 assists on.

He is playing for a side who will finish top 4 (almost certainly)

He should play the majority of games.

Last seasons winner Mata and to a lesser extent Hazard will not play as many league games as last season. Chelsea now have at least 7 options for 3 positions and whilst they should still play enough games each Mata is extremely unlikely to start 90% of games again.

To a lesser extent the addition of Navas and Jovetic should take away some assists from a big rival David Silva.

Based on Pellegrini and his history Man City should take a more attacking approach this season and in turn score more goals/more potential for assists.

Negatives :

Has in the past shown homesickness, small chance he will not take to the premier league at all.

First season may take time to adjust and with a big squad may be integrated in to the side slowly.


At 25-1 i have taken the chance, with slight doubts around some of the market leaders and the necessity to play for a top 4 side i think the bet makes sense. At a bigger price Adam Johnson makes some appeal based on his massive upturn in assists since Di Canio took over end of last season (6 of his 8 arriving after Di Canio arrived) at 50-1 i would not  put anyone off but he does have the top 4 stat against him.

Love that sort of bet horsey, thank you, but......

PP restricted me to £1.96, so I went all degen & had the lot on to WIN, not each way. Laughably small, but it still returns us £50 for £2. I'd take that every day.

Fun sweat at low cost & Banzai type price, perfect. Tiddlearsing ftw.

We have £1.96 @ 25/1, J Navas, Most Premier League Assists, 2013/14.

ON

Premier League Most Assists 2013-14
17-08-2013 12:45
Player to have most assists
J Navas @ 25/1


Your Bets





Win
Single: J Navas @ 25/1
1 line at £1.96 per line
Total stake for this bet: £1.96
 Potential returns: £50.96
No: O/23146337/0000338
 

Total stake: £1.96
 Free bets voucher: £0.00
 Total Cost: £1.96

[TightEnd]

You can have £5 e/w here if you like. I got on £10 ew (ice cream alert) at 25-1 PP

Settle up afterwards?

[horseplayer]

I presume the Man United price is factoring in the fact they have Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea within the first 5 games or so?

[tikay]

You can have £5 e/w here if you like. I got on £10 ew (ice cream alert) at 25-1 PP

Settle up afterwards?

Yes please!

Yes, settle up afterwards if that suits you.

CONFIRMATION

We have £5 EW @ 25/1, via Tighty, J Navas, most PL Assists, 2013/14.

ON

[Tal]

I have been looking at the assist market for a while this summer, ever since the Bale stuff started. Of late, the talk has been that Spurs want at least one player in part exchange (understandably as we can't get many Champions League standard players without paying over the odds).

Completely out of interest, what price would you make one of the players mooted as possible makeweights:

- Angel Di Maria?
- Luka Modric?

Now that Spurs have a Linekar/Klinsmann/Greaves-type striker in Soldado (for the first time in a long time), I'd think an effective serviceman would provide a good assist stat come May. Spurs have to score goals, as the side isn't built to defend.

Neither might come, but either would be an automatic first choice in the team.

20/1?

[aaron1867]

I wasn't suggesting betting blind btw, but I'm expecting goals and plenty of them. I think both teams will score in 75% of matches, but totally understand the theory with Fred with regards to betting in singles.

It's going to be interesting to see of this years league cup has any more meaning with FFP now around...

[gherkin]

Yorkshire should be thwarted saved by the weather

[horseplayer]

I have been looking at the assist market for a while this summer, ever since the Bale stuff started. Of late, the talk has been that Spurs want at least one player in part exchange (understandably as we can't get many Champions League standard players without paying over the odds).

Completely out of interest, what price would you make one of the players mooted as possible makeweights:

- Angel Di Maria?
- Luka Modric?

Now that Spurs have a Linekar/Klinsmann/Greaves-type striker in Soldado (for the first time in a long time), I'd think an effective serviceman would provide a good assist stat come May. Spurs have to score goals, as the side isn't built to defend.

Neither might come, but either would be an automatic first choice in the team.

20/1?

Di Maria i personally would have a little shorter maybe 16/1 Can really fire in the assists when he gets firing (15 in la liga 2 seasons back)

Personally i cant see him moving to Spurs before a world cup year but stranger things have happened

[DungBeetle]

Man Utd price doesn't seem that unreasonable given that they haven't strengthened and Man City have spent £100 million.  The other factor is the perceived downgrade in Man Utd's manager verses the perceived upgrade at Chelsea.  All in all I think the price is understandable although I'd definitely not want to lay it at that level.

Man City worthy favs imo.