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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16346757 times)
Doobs
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Posts: 16729
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47220 on:
August 07, 2013, 02:12:06 PM »
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 01:45:11 PM
Quote from: doubleup on August 07, 2013, 01:26:50 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 12:20:12 PM
edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.
The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather
Then you will probably get roughly 50% of them in the better conditions if there is a bias
It would be easy to make that figure higher by taking that info into account.
If players that have been backed at 150/1 that are 230 on BF are considered value how much should we be having on Dufner right now at 35/1 a 1/4 the first 7 when he is now 38 on BF. Even if we easily justify that bet from a maths point of view are we going to still want it when there is a more solid fcast to work from?
If you looked at the BF list now and were picking ten selections to bet each way fixed odds using the BF list he is right at the top yet he isn't one of the players that were right at the top 2 days ago when the bets were placed. I'm afraid It is just random time related bet picking.
I wil come back with the rest later, but Dufner WAS profitable on the spreadsheet. He just didn't make the cut. I have no idea if he would be top if I ran it now.
I could have backed pretty much everyone that was less than 100/1 in the Open and still be profitable. I could get pretty close to backing everyone less than 100/1 even now, but just don't think there is the appetite for it here, so limited it to the 10 best at the time. I guess if i get closer to backing everyone, then the more likely I/we lose accounts too.
The main reason they were profitable in The Open wasn't because they were 33/1 on the books vs 35/1 on Betfair, they were profitable because the bookies were paying 7 or 8 places when they should only be paying 4 or 5. Paying 6 or 7 places covers the odd inevitable cock up where I back an injured player. And for every player I get the wrong side of the weather with, there is another where I have the right side.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
bobby1
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Posts: 9573
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47221 on:
August 07, 2013, 02:19:13 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on August 07, 2013, 01:59:22 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 01:45:11 PM
Quote from: doubleup on August 07, 2013, 01:26:50 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 12:20:12 PM
edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.
The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather
Then you will probably get roughly 50% of them in the better conditions if there is a bias
It would be easy to make that figure higher by taking that info into account.
If players that have been backed at 150/1 that are 230 on BF are considered value how much should we be having on Dufner right now at 35/1 a 1/4 the first 7 when he is now 38 on BF. Even if we easily justify that bet from a maths point of view are we going to still want it when there is a more solid fcast to work from?
If you looked at the BF list now and were picking ten selections to bet each way fixed odds using the BF list he is right at the top yet he isn't one of the players that were right at the top 2 days ago when the bets were placed. I'm afraid It is just random time related bet picking.
I actually think doobs method is sound - mainly because of the place ev. Probably just needs a bit of adjustment eg maybe a maximum price as the lower prices are more reliable and prob leave the bets a bit closer to the event.
btw what do you think of the sterne top SA bet - I'm just a bit concerned that VC don't seem to give a toss about taking all the money on him as they haven't moved the price.
It looks a decent bet at 7/1 as most of those fancied in that are out at roughly the same time.
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
tikay
Administrator
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47222 on:
August 07, 2013, 02:23:59 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on August 07, 2013, 10:35:38 AM
Johnson and Stenson have to be sensible don't they
. Everything I read says - accuracy off the tee not length, good iron play etc. Tight course, tough set up etc etc, sounds like Johnson and Stenson territory.
I have been reminded of these - thank you Mr PM Man! - but we have not forgotten them. Well not now I've been reminded....
Dubai also supported the Stenny suggestion.
I need an actual Recommend though, what sort of stakes etc.
Give me those, & we'll climb on board.
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bobby1
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Posts: 9573
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47223 on:
August 07, 2013, 02:25:03 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on August 07, 2013, 02:12:06 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 01:45:11 PM
Quote from: doubleup on August 07, 2013, 01:26:50 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 12:20:12 PM
edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.
The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather
Then you will probably get roughly 50% of them in the better conditions if there is a bias
It would be easy to make that figure higher by taking that info into account.
If players that have been backed at 150/1 that are 230 on BF are considered value how much should we be having on Dufner right now at 35/1 a 1/4 the first 7 when he is now 38 on BF. Even if we easily justify that bet from a maths point of view are we going to still want it when there is a more solid fcast to work from?
If you looked at the BF list now and were picking ten selections to bet each way fixed odds using the BF list he is right at the top yet he isn't one of the players that were right at the top 2 days ago when the bets were placed. I'm afraid It is just random time related bet picking.
I wil come back with the rest later, but Dufner WAS profitable on the spreadsheet. He just didn't make the cut. I have no idea if he would be top if I ran it now.
I could have backed pretty much everyone that was less than 100/1 in the Open and still be profitable. I could get pretty close to backing everyone less than 100/1 even now, but just don't think there is the appetite for it here, so limited it to the 10 best at the time. I guess if i get closer to backing everyone, then the more likely I/we lose accounts too.
The main reason they were profitable in The Open wasn't because they were 33/1 on the books vs 35/1 on Betfair, they were profitable because the bookies were paying 7 or 8 places when they should only be paying 4 or 5. Paying 6 or 7 places covers the odd inevitable cock up where I back an injured player. And for every player I get the wrong side of the weather with, there is another where I have the right side.
If you were going to pick the bets now tho mate from scratch what would be the top ten using your spready. Appreciate you might be too busy but you must see the point that betting early using an immature market is going to throw up different bets from using a mature market when more info is available. So the main criteria for bet selections at the moment is just the time you do it.
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
tikay
Administrator
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47224 on:
August 07, 2013, 02:35:26 PM »
Quote from: ripple11 on August 07, 2013, 11:35:32 AM
Just looking through the bets on offer for tonight T20 quarter final live on Sky....and came across batsmans "no. of 4's and 6's bets".... I haven't noticed before.
Of those on offer with Ladbrokes, Michael Carberry is in fantastic form at the moment, in T20. He opens the innings and looks to go hard from the start to maximise the the first 6 over fielding restrictions. If he's in for at least 4/5 overs , I would expect the following bets to be achieved :
4's over 2.5 is 10/11
6's over 0.5 is 11/10
Thoughts from others?.
Tighty liked the 4's bet, there has been no other feedback.
Any views, please?
At present, I'm inclined to back both for modest sums, as they look, to my untrained eye, decent. I've actually backed both myself for small sums.
We should have a fun night.
We want Tighty's Football Leg 4 to get home, (though Fred is not on), some Bish Bash Bosh cricket, if we get on, & don't forget Scotty's selection, Express Master in the Sussex Cup, live on Sky Sports this evening.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Chompy
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Offline
Posts: 11503
Expert
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47225 on:
August 07, 2013, 02:44:06 PM »
McArdle has scored about ten goals in 240 games. Don't see much edge at those prices tbh Rhodesy.
Prefer 8/1 any time than 25/1 to score first on the basis that Carlisle look like struggling this season and could concede plenty.
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redarmi
Hero Member
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Posts: 5166
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47226 on:
August 07, 2013, 02:51:41 PM »
Quote from: Dubai on August 07, 2013, 11:17:43 AM
Stensons my pick
I'd also say betfair is no way ever going to be as accurate for something like a golf tournament with so many runners- compared to nearly any football game or something like that- particularly when we are talking 100+ runners and especially those priced 66/1+. Whilst it may look "properly formed" it's basically formed on the basis of a relatively small number of peoples opinions. Keith Elliott/racing post etc have the power to move the rags by 40 points. The shorter the price the more likely it's close to correct but I think it's optimistic to think that if bf is 140 and we can get 150/1 someone that means it's now a must bet even with an extra place. Even when we are right our ev is absolute pennies and in that list there are 2 injured golfers whose price should probably be doubled. Also the shorter the price the bigger the ev on extra place. If someone is 27 to lay on bf solid and we can get 33/1 with an extra place it's a bet but we still are talking small amount in ev unless we believe the market is wrong and he should be sub 20/1 which I'm basically saying it can be in golf.
Cliffs- any above average golf judge>>>>>>>>>betting blind based on tiny indiscrepancies compared to bf
This is a good post. I think it is important to understand why, as a general strategy, getting better than Betfair is a good thing to do because it will help you to understand when it isn't a smart thing to do. We use Betfair as a guide to the "correct" price because, generally speaking, we subscribe to something called "Efficient Market Hypothesis" which basically says that the market is the best guide of the chance of something because it efficiently discounts all of the information in the market and comes up with an accurate equilibrium price. We use Betfair because it is the best representation of the sports betting market that there is because it has the best overall liquidity. There are a lot of assumptions in the last two sentences I have wrote and this is where is becomes more interesting and if you use Betfair as a blind guide you can get into trouble.
Firstly, we assume both that Betfair is both liquid and the most liquid market. This is often not the case. If we take the PGA golf this weekend. Overall so far this week there has been nearly £2m matched on the outright prices so it is a liquid market generally speaking. Of that £639k has been matched on Tiger and he is 5.5 to back and 5.6 to lay for good money. It is fair to assume that his correct price is 5.55 and if you can beat that you probably have a good bet. Now if we look at someone like Miachael Thompson he has had £2549 matched. That is a fairly meaningless amount of money. Realistically it could have been 40 punters half of who are following SBI who tipped him up whilst the layer might have a simple approach of populating markets using other firms prices. It is still probably an okay estimation of his chances but given there aren't a lot of people that happily lay 350/1 shots it is probably the view of 10 people at best. If you could get 500-1 it would probably be okay but I certainly wouldn't be rushing to take 380-1.
Secondly, there are a lot of examples where Betfair isn't the provider of most liquidity. US sports is the best example. On an average baseball game Betfair might do £10k of volume. Pinnacle, on the other hand, will do £1m+ on every baseball game. If Pinnacle are 1.50 about the Yankees tonight and Betfair are 1.60 (this happens a lot) then betting the other team with Pinnacle on the basis of the Betfair will be the quickest way to the poorhouse. Taking the 1.60 on the Yankees however might be fairly smart thing to do. Similarly the Asian market (and Pinny again) are generally a better guide to football matches than Betfair. You can even extend this out to horseracing. In the mornings outside of the big meetings if you want to have £5k on a horse then you aren't getting it on BF you would go to Ladbrokes, Hills etc so betting moves with them on Betfair isn't an awful thing to do. Of course it should go without saying that these things can change and you need to read the market carefully.
Finally, you have to take into consideration transaction costs. On Betfair it costs between 2-5% of profits to bet. So when someone is asking to bet Tiger at 5.6 or lay him at 5.5 what they are actually asking you to do is laythem a 5.71 or take a price of 5.41 so really if you are to usemarket as a guide you have to be able to take prices bigger than 5.71 to be getting value on him because those are the real terms that the market is offering after commission.
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outragous76
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13315
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47227 on:
August 07, 2013, 03:01:27 PM »
Haha!
I rarely use the inbox to which my blonde poker account is assigned. I think I have inadvertently "notified" on this thread! Can confirm that would be an error for people to make! Don't do it!
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Doobs
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Posts: 16729
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47228 on:
August 07, 2013, 03:09:57 PM »
Quote from: Dubai on August 07, 2013, 11:17:43 AM
Stensons my pick
I'd also say betfair is no way ever going to be as accurate for something like a golf tournament with so many runners- compared to nearly any football game or something like that- particularly when we are talking 100+ runners and especially those priced 66/1+. Whilst it may look "properly formed" it's basically formed on the basis of a relatively small number of peoples opinions. Keith Elliott/racing post etc have the power to move the rags by 40 points. The shorter the price the more likely it's close to correct but I think it's optimistic to think that if bf is 140 and we can get 150/1 someone that means it's now a must bet even with an extra place. Even when we are right our ev is absolute pennies and in that list there are 2 injured golfers whose price should probably be doubled. Also the shorter the price the bigger the ev on extra place. If someone is 27 to lay on bf solid and we can get 33/1 with an extra place it's a bet but we still are talking small amount in ev unless we believe the market is wrong and he should be sub 20/1 which I'm basically saying it can be in golf.
Cliffs- any above average golf judge>>>>>>>>>betting blind based on tiny indiscrepancies compared to bf
I think your reasoning is a bit off in a couple of places. The longer priced runners add more EV for an extra spot. A shorter priced runner is less likely to come 2nd than 1st, less likely to come 3rd than 2nd etc. If the generous place terms offer exactly 20% to a bet, it has the same value if it is a 4/1 shot or a 66/1 shot. So you aren't just adding pennies to one and pounds to the other.
I think you are right on the likelihood of the shorter priced runners having more accurate prices, which is why I set an upper limit on the prices. As it was when I did the original spreadsheet, there were more shorter prices runners showed up. Unfortunately those were the prices that got shortened after I bet on them.
The other problem I have with some of these posts, is that you come here saying that two players have injury doubts, but don't name them. I don't see the point, we are all helping each other here, so why not just name them. My bets are already down, but it would be good to help those who haven't bet. Then you say an average judge is way better than what I have done. I don't claim to be perfect, and hold my hands up saying this is all very mechanical. All those greater than symbols don't make something true, the "average" judge loses at betting, you have to be pretty strong to make a profit, and I expect most aren't nearly as profitable as they'd have you believe.
Of course if there was a good judge filter to these bets, they would clearly be improved, but unfortunately we don't have one as yet.
If we could get 33/1 on a Betfair 27/1 chance, it would have been in the list, believe me.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
BigAdz
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Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47229 on:
August 07, 2013, 03:14:20 PM »
Whilst concluding my golf study, I took a quick look at the Norwegian Challenge. Right down at the bottom of the betting a certain Yevgeny Kafelnikov...lol....Good luck son!
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Horneris
#5 BH
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47230 on:
August 07, 2013, 03:25:09 PM »
Sorry for
Who wants in for Fantasy Football this year?
Not that many entered yet with only a week and a half to go:
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61847.0
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Doobs
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Posts: 16729
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47231 on:
August 07, 2013, 03:28:30 PM »
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 02:25:03 PM
Quote from: Doobs on August 07, 2013, 02:12:06 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 01:45:11 PM
Quote from: doubleup on August 07, 2013, 01:26:50 PM
Quote from: bobby1 on August 07, 2013, 12:20:12 PM
edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.
The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather
Then you will probably get roughly 50% of them in the better conditions if there is a bias
It would be easy to make that figure higher by taking that info into account.
If players that have been backed at 150/1 that are 230 on BF are considered value how much should we be having on Dufner right now at 35/1 a 1/4 the first 7 when he is now 38 on BF. Even if we easily justify that bet from a maths point of view are we going to still want it when there is a more solid fcast to work from?
If you looked at the BF list now and were picking ten selections to bet each way fixed odds using the BF list he is right at the top yet he isn't one of the players that were right at the top 2 days ago when the bets were placed. I'm afraid It is just random time related bet picking.
I wil come back with the rest later, but Dufner WAS profitable on the spreadsheet. He just didn't make the cut. I have no idea if he would be top if I ran it now.
I could have backed pretty much everyone that was less than 100/1 in the Open and still be profitable. I could get pretty close to backing everyone less than 100/1 even now, but just don't think there is the appetite for it here, so limited it to the 10 best at the time. I guess if i get closer to backing everyone, then the more likely I/we lose accounts too.
The main reason they were profitable in The Open wasn't because they were 33/1 on the books vs 35/1 on Betfair, they were profitable because the bookies were paying 7 or 8 places when they should only be paying 4 or 5. Paying 6 or 7 places covers the odd inevitable cock up where I back an injured player. And for every player I get the wrong side of the weather with, there is another where I have the right side.
If you were going to pick the bets now tho mate from scratch what would be the top ten using your spready. Appreciate you might be too busy but you must see the point that betting early using an immature market is going to throw up different bets from using a mature market when more info is available. So the main criteria for bet selections at the moment is just the time you do it.
If you really think that the main criteria for bet selction is the time I do the bets, then you are not grasping what I am saying at all. It is just a complete logic fail. Of course as time goes by, and prices move, selections will change, but that really isn't the same thing. Those bets that are good now, were probably fine before, those that are fine now, were probably good before.
The main driver for the bets is the 6 or 7 places. Because of this general pricing error, I could stick a pin in the the names at the top of the market and take a best price and get 6 or 7 places and still be more likely than not get a +EV bet.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Dubai
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 6016
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47232 on:
August 07, 2013, 03:53:30 PM »
You are wrong on the more likely to win than come second for people between 33/1 and 100/1 IMO. I was actually the person that posted about the theory you are talking about and it was mainly about woods. Massive difference between him and someone like Westwood, Day,
etc
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DungBeetle
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Posts: 4147
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47233 on:
August 07, 2013, 03:55:06 PM »
In world football news, looks like the Anzhi experiment is nearing the end. They've put the whole squad up for sale and sacked the manager after health problems for the owner.
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DungBeetle
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Posts: 4147
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #47234 on:
August 07, 2013, 04:00:18 PM »
Some confusion in the press about whether it is a health issue or a financial one. Think one of his companies had some heavy losses recently.
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