Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

£25 each-way Presburg, 3.50 Brighton, 12/1 Hillbillies

I make him a 6/1 shot and this price is crazy. His course win in May has worked out well and he's had excuses since, meeting traffic and then finding a slow pace against him in two starts at Sandown. This is a bit easier, the ground has come right and his trainer is 7-28 at the course.

Pretty sure Laddies' 7/1 about Edwyn Ralph in the same race will also beat the price but the fast ground puts me off him a bit.

BOOM!

No Rebuff, we got there before the price disappeared.

Thanks Gina Boy.

We have £25 EW @ 12/1, Wm Hill, Presburg, 3.50 Brighton, Thursday.

Confirmation in the morning.

ON

[tikay]

Just looking through the bets on offer for tonight T20 quarter final live on Sky....and came across batsmans "no. of 4's and 6's bets".... I haven't noticed before.

Of those on offer with Ladbrokes, Michael Carberry is in fantastic form at the moment, in T20. He opens the innings and looks to go hard from the start to maximise the the first 6 over fielding restrictions. If he's in for at least 4/5 overs , I would expect the following bets to be achieved :

 4's over 2.5 is 10/11
6's over 0.5 is  11/10

Thoughts from others?.

Hi Nick,

Does not seem to be much interest in tonight's T20 thing, but I like this bet, & we have modestly speculated.

We have £22 @ 10/11, Carberry to score OVER 2.5 x 4's, & £20 @ 11/10, Carberry to score one six or more, both with Ladbrokes.

ON


07/08/2013 0000371 Over/Under 1  £22.00   Hampshire v Lancashire No. of fours - M Carberry  Over +2.5 10/11   
0000372 Over/Under 1  £20.00   Hampshire v Lancashire No. of sixes - M Carberry  Over +0.5 11/10   

Who would we prefer to bat first here?

[bobby1]

edit again, you are also going to have to hope that your guys are in the right side of the draw if the weather fcast stays the same too.

The bets are 60/40 weather balanced - I taught doobs all he knows about golf weather 

Then you will probably get roughly 50% of them in the better conditions if there is a bias  

It would be easy to make that figure higher by taking that info into account.

If players that have been backed at 150/1 that are 230 on BF are considered value how much should we be having on Dufner right now at 35/1 a 1/4 the first 7 when he is now 38 on BF. Even if we easily justify that bet from a maths point of view are we going to still want it when there is a more solid fcast to work from?

If you looked at the BF list now and were picking ten selections to bet each way fixed odds using the BF list he is right at the top yet he isn't one of the players that were right at the top 2 days ago when the bets were placed. I'm afraid It is just random time related bet picking.

I wil come back with the rest later, but Dufner WAS profitable on the spreadsheet.  He just didn't make the cut.  I have no idea if he would be top if I ran it now.    

I could have backed pretty much everyone that was less than 100/1 in the Open and still be profitable.  I could get pretty close to backing everyone less than 100/1 even now, but just don't think there is the appetite for it here, so limited it to the 10 best at the time.  I guess if i get closer to backing everyone, then the more likely I/we lose accounts too.

The main reason they were profitable in The Open wasn't because they were 33/1 on the books vs 35/1 on Betfair, they were profitable because the bookies were paying 7 or 8 places when they should only be paying 4 or 5.  Paying 6 or 7 places covers the odd inevitable cock up where I back an injured player.  And for every player I get the wrong side of the weather with, there is another where I have the right side.  

If you were going to pick the bets now tho mate from scratch what would be the top ten using your spready. Appreciate you might be too busy but you must see the point that betting early using an immature market is going to throw up different bets from using a mature market when more info is available. So the main criteria for bet selections at the moment is just the time you do it.

If you really think that the main criteria for bet selction is the time I do the bets, then you are not grasping what I am saying at all.  It is just a complete logic fail.  Of course as time goes by, and prices move, selections will change, but that really isn't the same thing.  Those bets that are good now, were probably fine before, those that are fine now, were probably good before.  

The main driver for the bets is the 6 or 7 places.  Because of this general pricing error, I could stick a pin in the the names at the top of the market and take a best price and get 6 or 7 places and still be more likely than not get a +EV bet.  

no no, the main criteria for your bets is  not the time you place them but the time you place them is now the most important part. That's the point. There is no logic fail and I understand the places add to the value now punters can bet win only exchange prices each way at enhanced terms. The only logic fail seems to be you won't accept that you will have a different list of players depending on when you do the work, so it is pot luck which players your spready comes up with at that time. And you are using the weakest show of the week to base those on. So, again Tony is in the spot of having a load of bets on an event, some value, some not when if you ran the spready today it would give different bets. Easiest way to show that is to run it at the BF prices  now and the list will be different from yesterday and again different from the day before.

As for sharing info why not run it now and we can see what the best 10 are.

[TightEnd]

Prefer to bat first. Fresher pitch. Ball can also swing under lights later. This is for the bet, want carberryvin first

[bobby1]

I have read about Stricker having a dodgy hamstring from skiing.

Sorry Hector, I had to shoot off, wasn't being intentionally vague. Stricker has a bad hammy, Hanson still not right but plays ok when it doesn't flare up. Jason Day is the interesting one tho, he wasn't practising much after The Open due to a wrist niggle he had since the US Open, he was playing ok but not great. Last week he was complaining of a shoulder/upper arm niggle on the same side and was talking about a tissue injury there. He played poorly last week too. Obv Mahan will either be inspired or knackered, Mick said he was fatigued last week. Dustin Johnson seems to be having too much sex and partying at the mo but did show up in The Open but blew out. G Mac said his game was off last week. Watney still not happy with his swing. Donald swing supposedly showing some technical issues tho he went ok up to a point last week.Woods was complaining about the greens here in an interview last week, they are thick and he said he didn't putt well in his practice rounds tho not sure putting well will be that important this week.

cheers

[tikay]

Prefer to bat first. Fresher pitch. Ball can also swing under lights later. This is for the bet, want carberryvin first

Well we got that bit right then.

[LeedsRhodesy]

Has anyone got any team news on the Blackburn match tonight please before I lump it on Blackburn?

[TightEnd]

Same squad as league game at derby minus the injured rochina

[tikay]

Carberry, starved of the strike in the first two overs, then hits fours from two consecutive balls.

[TightEnd]

Fours bet lands inside three overs. Three fours in four balls

[LeedsRhodesy]

Same squad as league game at derby minus the injured rochina

Thanks

[bobby1]

Teams are here Leeds, many changes

http://www.rovers.co.uk/news/article/team-news-from-brunton-park-975386.aspx

[TightEnd]

So close to a six!

[Tal]

Fours bet lands inside three overs. Three fours in four balls

The Ian Gascoigne of cricket

[tikay]

So close to a six!

Close to a catch, too.

One bounce 4, bugger.