Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

minus points for including Chompy in the top 5?

Final Warning.

[tikay]

Ommmm

Scott O'Reilly that plays at Luton? Saw you at DTD a fortnight or so ago?

p.s some good picks on your top 5. and then me!

Hi Tighty , not sure how many Scott O'Reilly's play poker or even at Luton, but the only Dtd I've played recently was on Monday night on Sky. Although I will be going to Luton tonight to see if I can splash the cash in the donkament, no doubt ill introduce myself when I get to an Spt.

If your screen-name next dor is "Omm", then you won a prize of a Free Entry to tonight's 21.30, £2,000 Guaranteed Bounty Hunter, which, by chance, I organised early this morning, for winning the SPT Notts 6-Max Fantasy League thing, run by Slyklist,  I think.

On the other hand, if your alias next door is NOT Omn, feel free to attend Luton tonight & crush as appropriate.

The Lobby for that BH tonight currently reads as follows.....


omm 2000   0  
bolly580 2000   0  
EvilPingu 2000   0  

[tikay]

I am doing a lot of work on the T20 Finals for articles

We are on Essex at 12-1, and have a shot certainly and a sweat before then whatever

Essex play Northants in the semi. I am on Northants for the whole thing from a way back. Both teams will be delighted to avoid Hampshire in the semi

Either way, its good


Northants Wickets in the 2013 T20 competition

Azharullah 24 in 10 Innings. He has 3 innings of 4 wickets taken

Willey 17 in 10 innings. 1 innings of 4 wickets taken

Crook 6 in 8 innings

Daggett 5 in 11 innings

Middlebrook 5 in 9 innings

Spriegel 5 in 9 innings


This is a match bet Willey/Azharullah for the semi final "Top Northants wicket taker". Both spinners are there to get through the overs, restrict runs. Daggett and Crook are third seamers and don't have the range of wicket taking balls the big two have

Willey and Azharullah bowl at the death, and Azharullah does not take the new ball. Generally takes an over after the powerplay, an over in the middle and two at the end, so he avoids the big hitters and can have half his overs at tail enders, for whom he can be unplayable. These overs pad his stats

Against Essex, a dangerous set of big hitting batsmen, Azharullah's variations of pace off the ball and yorkers will be the big threat (they have to go after him, and take risks, in most match situations for at least half his overs) and he is to me a warm favourite to top this market

Before I looked at prices I made it

Azharullah 7/4
Willey 11/4
Crook 6/1
Daggett 7/1
Middlebrook 7/1
Spriegel 10/1

(overround 111%)

Then I see the market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/friends-life-t20/northamptonshire-v-essex/top-northamptonshire-bowler

(overround 117.6%)

5/2 Azharullah is wrong. Or wrong often enough that it simply has to be taken in whatever size you can

Match is Saturday 11am

As I was offline this morning, I got x to try & get this on for me. He got £20 @ 5/2, (I don't yet know who with), & I'll settle directly with him.

The CURRENT price is 2/1, scarily close to your "correct" price, & way less than 5/2. I had intended to have (up to) £100 on this, but 2/1 is not quite so sexy.

What do you think?

I was rather keen to go big on this, but 2/1 is way short of 5/2.

For NOW, we have....

ON

£20 @ 5/2, (XX Bookmaker), Azharullah, Top Northants Bowler v Essex, T20 Semi-Final.



We may have more on this in due course, if advised accordingly.

[tikay]

It feels more than likely that Rooney will score tonight. Point to prove, no baggage in Engkand shirt etc.
9/2 @ W Hill, 7/2 Betfair as FGS
Or evens to score anytime on both which is beaten by backing ew at 4/1 with Bet365 at 1/3 odds for any time.
The 4/1 still beats bf although I understand that their price may not be the arbiter in this market.

Suggest £x ew at Bet365 where £10<= x <= £25

Rooney is 5/1 with Betfair (well 4.9/1).  I think you must be looking at their dreadful fixed odds prices in error.  He is about 6/4 to score anytime. 

There may be a slight edge over Betfair by backing him to score first at Hills, as 2nd scorer is a free bet.  The Bet365 price beats neither the first goalscorer and the place price on Betfair. 

Are we suggesting we get on Rooney, as per David, but via Hills with the Concession?

[tikay]

5th Ashes Test Weds 21st August

Harris has easily been the best Aussie bowler this series and has 20 wickets in just 3 tests. He is however injury prone and there is talk he may not play at the Oval and be rested ahead of the Ashes down under later this year. However coach Lehmann says "We would love him to play"

He is closest to Fred's 11/2 top bowler for the series bet Swann who has 3 more wickets at 23. Siddle, Anderson and Broad all have 17.

It would be great for Fred if Harris doesn't play at the Oval. We can be fairly certain that he will only play if 100% fit.

Harris top first Aussie innings bowler is generally a 2/1 - 9/4 shot but Sky go a stand out 11/4 which could be a shade generous. If he doesn't play we get a refund.

It also works as a kind of hedge for Fred on the Swann action but of course both bets can win.

Not sure if Fred can bet Sky but would suggest a small interest if possible at 11/4.

Its a good price I think. tikay can't use Sky on here though. 11/4 anywhere else I think is a good spot


on a similar tack we have Clarke 5/2 top Aussie bat and Clarke is 2 runs ahead of Rogers with two innings to go

Rogers obviously gets to bat ahead of Clarke in any innings

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-batsman

trying not to recommend 5/4 Rogers on what is a 50-50 shot...

Further input required on this from both Joe & Tighty.

It WOULD provide cover, but at some cost, although, as Joe notes, BOTH bets can win.

[Dubai]

I couldn't take 2/1. I think it's way too short and 5/2 is more than marginal- Tightys seen enough 20/20 games and enough Essex mid innings collapses to know that it really isn't "a 2 runner race"!!

If Harris isn't playin then Siddle at 12/5 to be aussies top wicket taker  is a 10 starmaximum

[JoeBeevers]

5th Ashes Test Weds 21st August

Harris has easily been the best Aussie bowler this series and has 20 wickets in just 3 tests. He is however injury prone and there is talk he may not play at the Oval and be rested ahead of the Ashes down under later this year. However coach Lehmann says "We would love him to play"

He is closest to Fred's 11/2 top bowler for the series bet Swann who has 3 more wickets at 23. Siddle, Anderson and Broad all have 17.

It would be great for Fred if Harris doesn't play at the Oval. We can be fairly certain that he will only play if 100% fit.

Harris top first Aussie innings bowler is generally a 2/1 - 9/4 shot but Sky go a stand out 11/4 which could be a shade generous. If he doesn't play we get a refund.

It also works as a kind of hedge for Fred on the Swann action but of course both bets can win.

Not sure if Fred can bet Sky but would suggest a small interest if possible at 11/4.

Its a good price I think. tikay can't use Sky on here though. 11/4 anywhere else I think is a good spot


on a similar tack we have Clarke 5/2 top Aussie bat and Clarke is 2 runs ahead of Rogers with two innings to go

Rogers obviously gets to bat ahead of Clarke in any innings

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-batsman

trying not to recommend 5/4 Rogers on what is a 50-50 shot...

Further input required on this from both Joe & Tighty.

It WOULD provide cover, but at some cost, although, as Joe notes, BOTH bets can win.

Price long gone Tony - not a bet at 9/4

[tikay]

4 out of the last 5 years when the Wyndham has been at Sedgefield have produced a hole in one. (last year we won here too)

8/11 paddy 4/6 elsewhere.

Sandy

PS last time i was able to access tipsters on spreadsheet it said, iirc, i had 17 bets but i only get 15 when searching through it although May 2012 looks a bit sparse. 5/6 on hole in ones is that correct ?

Thanks Sandy.

Bugger. Unless I am missing something - more than likely - PP seem to have withdrawn the market.

I cannot bet with SkyBet, & don't have an Account with Betway.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/wyndham-championship/hole-in-one

[tikay]

5th Ashes Test Weds 21st August

Harris has easily been the best Aussie bowler this series and has 20 wickets in just 3 tests. He is however injury prone and there is talk he may not play at the Oval and be rested ahead of the Ashes down under later this year. However coach Lehmann says "We would love him to play"

He is closest to Fred's 11/2 top bowler for the series bet Swann who has 3 more wickets at 23. Siddle, Anderson and Broad all have 17.

It would be great for Fred if Harris doesn't play at the Oval. We can be fairly certain that he will only play if 100% fit.

Harris top first Aussie innings bowler is generally a 2/1 - 9/4 shot but Sky go a stand out 11/4 which could be a shade generous. If he doesn't play we get a refund.

It also works as a kind of hedge for Fred on the Swann action but of course both bets can win.

Not sure if Fred can bet Sky but would suggest a small interest if possible at 11/4.

Its a good price I think. tikay can't use Sky on here though. 11/4 anywhere else I think is a good spot


on a similar tack we have Clarke 5/2 top Aussie bat and Clarke is 2 runs ahead of Rogers with two innings to go

Rogers obviously gets to bat ahead of Clarke in any innings

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-batsman

trying not to recommend 5/4 Rogers on what is a 50-50 shot...

Further input required on this from both Joe & Tighty.

It WOULD provide cover, but at some cost, although, as Joe notes, BOTH bets can win.

Price long gone Tony - not a bet at 9/4

Lovely - no decision to make.

Thanks Joe.

[TightEnd]

Nothing to do on azharullah at 2-1.

[tikay]

I couldn't take 2/1. I think it's way too short and 5/2 is more than marginal- Tightys seen enough 20/20 games and enough Essex mid innings collapses to know that it really isn't "a 2 runner race"!!

If Harris isn't playin then Siddle at 12/5 to be aussies top wicket taker  is a 10 starmaximum

Noted.

But if we wait until we know Harris is NOT playing, Siddle @ 12/5 will snap disappear & presumably become too short to bet.

So what would you do as of now?......

PS - How much is a 10 star max? £15? £20 maybe.....

[tikay]

Nothing to do on azharullah at 2-1.

OK, we stick with £20 @ 5/2, that'll have to do. Shame, but could not be helped, have had a really (x4) trying day today.

[Dubai]

I'd ask Shane Warne if he will play and act accordingly. Someone bound to know him in poker well enough

[henrik777]

4 out of the last 5 years when the Wyndham has been at Sedgefield have produced a hole in one. (last year we won here too)

8/11 paddy 4/6 elsewhere.

Sandy

PS last time i was able to access tipsters on spreadsheet it said, iirc, i had 17 bets but i only get 15 when searching through it although May 2012 looks a bit sparse. 5/6 on hole in ones is that correct ?

Thanks Sandy.

Bugger. Unless I am missing something - more than likely - PP seem to have withdrawn the market.

I cannot bet with SkyBet, & don't have an Account with Betway.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/wyndham-championship/hole-in-one

Was never on odschecker but was under tournament specials on PP.

Betvictor had it at 4/6 as i recall.

Sandy

[Doobs]

It feels more than likely that Rooney will score tonight. Point to prove, no baggage in Engkand shirt etc.
9/2 @ W Hill, 7/2 Betfair as FGS
Or evens to score anytime on both which is beaten by backing ew at 4/1 with Bet365 at 1/3 odds for any time.
The 4/1 still beats bf although I understand that their price may not be the arbiter in this market.

Suggest £x ew at Bet365 where £10<= x <= £25

Rooney is 5/1 with Betfair (well 4.9/1).  I think you must be looking at their dreadful fixed odds prices in error.  He is about 6/4 to score anytime.  

There may be a slight edge over Betfair by backing him to score first at Hills, as 2nd scorer is a free bet.  The Bet365 price beats neither the first goalscorer and the place price on Betfair.  

Are we suggesting we get on Rooney, as per David, but via Hills with the Concession?

Think it is marginal, but OK.  Edit. Put the £25 on.