Tips for Tikay

[henrik777]

Solheim cup.

Top American.

Stacy Lewis is favourite. Good golfer terrible record. Tough first game. 1-3-0
Paula Creamer. Good golfer. Great record. 11-3-5
Cristie kerr. Not as good but good enough. Poorish Record. 11-12-3
Angela Stanford. Decent. Terrible record. 3-7-3
Morgan Pressel. Good golfer. Terrific record. 7-2-2

A few more also rans who in all probability won't be 5 match players.

Take out Stanford whose record is awful. Lewis could do anything. Kerr will hopefully only do ok if she splits from Creamer. Creamer is probably most likely to win this if our pick doesn't.

Pressel should get 5 games unless all players get a rest so she'll never be at a disadvantage. She does have an interesting 1st game v Matthew with both having a rookie to play with. However 9/1 each way 1/4 top 3 is a very good price in my mind. Creamer is 9/2 and there is no way Pressel is twice the price.

Pressel each way 9/1 top American.

Sandy

Logic behind the bet is good, but not so sure I would write Stacey Lewis so easily on the back of such a small sample size of Solheim Cup experience, IMO. GL

 

Sandy

[tikay]

Solheim cup.

Top American.

Stacy Lewis is favourite. Good golfer terrible record. Tough first game. 1-3-0
Paula Creamer. Good golfer. Great record. 11-3-5
Cristie kerr. Not as good but good enough. Poorish Record. 11-12-3
Angela Stanford. Decent. Terrible record. 3-7-3
Morgan Pressel. Good golfer. Terrific record. 7-2-2

A few more also rans who in all probability won't be 5 match players.

Take out Stanford whose record is awful. Lewis could do anything. Kerr will hopefully only do ok if she splits from Creamer. Creamer is probably most likely to win this if our pick doesn't.

Pressel should get 5 games unless all players get a rest so she'll never be at a disadvantage. She does have an interesting 1st game v Matthew with both having a rookie to play with. However 9/1 each way 1/4 top 3 is a very good price in my mind. Creamer is 9/2 and there is no way Pressel is twice the price.

Pressel each way 9/1 top American.

Sandy

Logic behind the bet is good, but not so sure I would write Stacey Lewis so easily on the back of such a small sample size of Solheim Cup experience, IMO. GL

I think part of the attraction is the EW terms. I know the sample size is small, but she seems to excel at matchplay, & not many do. We know Stacey might just blow us away, of course, that's why we got 9/1. We are getting 9/4 for the place, & it is hard to see her outside the top three. Mind you, ALL our bets look good before they happen.....

[Doobs]

Ladbrokes are repeating their offer on mobile at Newbury today and are top priced a few.  Punish them.

2.20 Zerfaal 15/8
3.20 Statutory 2/1
3.55 Wind Fire 2/1
4.30 Assembly 3/1
5.00 Saddaqa 7/4

All look fine for £25.  So do a couple of others in the other races!

[tikay]

Ladbrokes are repeating their offer on mobile at Newbury today and are top priced a few.  Punish them.

2.20 Zerfaal 15/8
3.20 Statutory 2/1
3.55 Wind Fire 2/1
4.30 Assembly 3/1
5.00 Saddaqa 7/4

All look fine for £25.  So do a couple of others in the other races!

Punish them

Will get on those now.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes are repeating their offer on mobile at Newbury today and are top priced a few.  Punish them.

2.20 Zerfaal 15/8
3.20 Statutory 2/1
3.55 Wind Fire 2/1
4.30 Assembly 3/1
5.00 Saddaqa 7/4

All look fine for £25.  So do a couple of others in the other races!

All done, details shortly.

Note, we have a £25 Free Bet with Ladbrokes, looking for a home. No rush, but we must not forget it.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes are repeating their offer on mobile at Newbury today and are top priced a few.  Punish them.

2.20 Zerfaal 15/8
3.20 Statutory 2/1
3.55 Wind Fire 2/1
4.30 Assembly 3/1
5.00 Saddaqa 7/4

All look fine for £25.  So do a couple of others in the other races!

Thanks Mr B.

Missed a couple of prices by a spot, but not too bad. Looks a really tricky card, but with the concession, we have value.

ALL these bets are...

At Newbury

With Ladbrokes Mobile

We get a £25 Free Bet if they finish 2nd.


2.20 Zerfaal, £25  7/4

3.20 Statutory, £25 @ 2/1

3.55 Wind Fire £25 @2/1

4.30 Assembly £25 @ 3/1

5.00 Saddaqa £25 @ 13/8

ON

16/08/2013 0000391 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  17:00 Race winner  Saddaqa  13/8   
  0000390 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  16:30 Race winner  Assembly  3/1   
  0000389 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  15:55 Race winner  Wind Fire  2/1   
  0000388 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  15:20 Race winner  Statutory  2/1   
  0000387 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  14:20 Race winner  Zerfaal  7/4   
 

[rfgqqabc]

Likely DRFC line up.

Ross Turnbull - Signed 1 day before the first league game.

Paul Quinn - On the fringes throughout last season, forced in to the first team due to injuries/players leaving.
Bongani Khumalo - Joined very late in pre season on loan from Spurs.
Rob Jones ©
James Husband  19 year old, very little first team experience, youth team player thrown in due to lack of options/injuries.

David Cotterill
Richie Wellens - Again signed a short term deal the day before the season started having being released by Leicester.
Dean Furman - Played on Tuesday night for SA at home v Nigeria. Will almost certainly have to start, no other options.
Mark Duffy - Unproven at this level, big step up having signed from Scunthorpe late on in pre season.

James Coppinger
Theo Robinson - Signed yesterday afternoon from Derby, in line to start tonight.

Bench - Not much !

---------

I think if this game was played 100,000 times, Blackburn would win more than 500,000 times. That makes 7/4 a really good price, right?

Reccy punter logic

Recommend some money on Blackburn to win @ Doncaster tonight @ 7/4 ! (365/totesport/berfred)  

Wellens has been training with the squad all summer, Husband is extremely well regarded at the club. Quinn has made plenty of appearances in the SPL/Championship before so not sure about inexperienced. However, you got in early enough to beat the price. Wouldn't read much into the home record from last season either.

[exstream]

Anyone able to work something out for me please.
My friend is talking about Swansea winning at 3/1 vs Man U or Norwich winning at 11/5 vs Everton.
Using those odds, what are suitable odds if we were to be against eachother on NEITHER winning.
I would take neither winning, if one wins, he wins. What odds?

[MahoganyVic]

Neither 9/10, one or more 11/10 roughly at those odds I think

[kukushkin88]

Seems to me like you should be laying him 13/10.

[ripple11]

p.s 14 of Hampshire's powerplay balls went for boundaries

Nick if we see this 10/11, 11/10 type price on a lowish spread (2-3 fours, 1 six) on finals day next Saturday please post again

Its max bet material (Weather and pitch dependent at Edgbastion) for Hampshire, possibly Roy at Surrey, possibly Levi at Northants and Rutherford/Essex or Hales-Lumb/Notts depending who makes it

thanks

T/20 finals tomorrow:

For some reason Ladbrokes aren't giving prices on the first match (Essex v Northants)....but we have prices for the second match. The fly in the ointment looks like the weather. If/When rains arrives .... will it be a full/ reduced/postpond match ?

Anyway prices are:

4's hit , over 2.5 :

Roy 5/4
Vince 10/11
Carberry 4/5
Davis 11/10

6's hit, over 0.5 :

Roy 6/5
Vince 13/8
Carberry 6/5
Davis 9/4

Thoughts Tighty?

[Katais]

Likely DRFC line up.

Ross Turnbull - Signed 1 day before the first league game.

Paul Quinn - On the fringes throughout last season, forced in to the first team due to injuries/players leaving.
Bongani Khumalo - Joined very late in pre season on loan from Spurs.
Rob Jones ©
James Husband  19 year old, very little first team experience, youth team player thrown in due to lack of options/injuries.

David Cotterill
Richie Wellens - Again signed a short term deal the day before the season started having being released by Leicester.
Dean Furman - Played on Tuesday night for SA at home v Nigeria. Will almost certainly have to start, no other options.
Mark Duffy - Unproven at this level, big step up having signed from Scunthorpe late on in pre season.

James Coppinger
Theo Robinson - Signed yesterday afternoon from Derby, in line to start tonight.

Bench - Not much !

---------

I think if this game was played 100,000 times, Blackburn would win more than 500,000 times. That makes 7/4 a really good price, right?

Reccy punter logic

Recommend some money on Blackburn to win @ Doncaster tonight @ 7/4 ! (365/totesport/berfred)  

Wellens has been training with the squad all summer, Husband is extremely well regarded at the club. Quinn has made plenty of appearances in the SPL/Championship before so not sure about inexperienced. However, you got in early enough to beat the price. Wouldn't read much into the home record from last season either.

Didn't say Quinn was inexperienced :/

46 games over 3+ seasons at this level before being released by Cardiff isn't much though.

SPL yes, different league though.

Wouldn't have been a starter until Spurr left & Mccoombe got injured the week before the season. More disruption.

Wellens pre season amounted to 45 minutes v Bradford in the final friendly 6 days before the season started.

Wont even be match fit today.

Needs must

[TightEnd]

p.s 14 of Hampshire's powerplay balls went for boundaries

Nick if we see this 10/11, 11/10 type price on a lowish spread (2-3 fours, 1 six) on finals day next Saturday please post again

Its max bet material (Weather and pitch dependent at Edgbastion) for Hampshire, possibly Roy at Surrey, possibly Levi at Northants and Rutherford/Essex or Hales-Lumb/Notts depending who makes it

thanks

T/20 finals tomorrow:

For some reason Ladbrokes aren't giving prices on the first match (Essex v Northants)....but we have prices for the second match. The fly in the ointment looks like the weather. If/When rains arrives .... will it be a full/ reduced/postpond match ?

Anyway prices are:

4's hit , over 2.5 :

Roy 5/4
Vince 10/11
Carberry 4/5
Davis 11/10

6's hit, over 0.5 :

Roy 6/5
Vince 13/8
Carberry 6/5
Davis 9/4

Thoughts Tighty?

The weather forecast isn't too great (sadly, I am going!)

If you were guaranteed a full 20 overs in reasonable weather I think you'd make a profit backing all 8 of those at even stakes

Roy and Davies are very frustrating, superb ball strikers but so rarely go on to build an innings. What they both can do though is get the ball over the rope in power-plays

Carberry we know about

Both sides have strength in death bowling, but less so with the new ball when the ball is hard, the field is in and its more difficult to restrict scoring

Up to you Nick what you recommend, but I might shut my eyes and do the lot

[MajorMajor]

Won't those bets be void if the full 20 overs aren't bowled? I know total are void of the full innings isn't played.

[tikay]

Won't those bets be void if the full 20 overs aren't bowled? I know total are void of the full innings isn't played.

Thanks Majorx2.

If that is correct, it makes the bet very much easier to evaluate, & we'd get on I think. The weather/shortened game thing messes with everything otherwise.