Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

sorry 2x 2.50 ew bets so £10 in total

Rule 4 is a deduction that is made when a horse is withdrawn late, as it changes your horse's chance of winning.

Applies to win and each way bets but you only get a penalty if it wins, so if your horse comes second, you don't get two penalties; just the place part.

The deduction depends on the price of the horse withdrawn. Here's an explanation:

http://www.the-secret-system.com/horseracing-rule4.htm

[Spudy]

No need to apologise, you put up what seemed a decent logical bet, ground issues aside.

[Tal]

Absolutley no where, sorry guys!  It got off to a decent start to my eyes, Chompy said it would be good to get the rail in the lead, it got the rail but was 3rd, and seemed to be going well enough until it had had nothing at all and possibly finished last. I don't know if that was due to the raise in class or it has finished its winning now with the handicapper back in control or not. Apologies.

Spudy is right; we don't do apologies, here, for bets that didn't pan out. Firstly, it's a community of grownups who can decide for themselves whether they want to spend their money on a bet. Secondly, we are looking for long term value, so a single loss just means your bet lost in a sample size of one; nothing more.

The Elders aren't about, so I'll do this in their absence.

An apology on thread is a yellow card offence:

Click to see full-size image.

[horseplayer]

Dont be silly Sparrow

Nobody could have predicted two horse pull 5 clear in a handicap like that

Strange race all going well 2 out (to varying degrees)

[a.sparrow]

lol alright, yellow card accepted, onto the next! just listening to the reddie steady bet podcast on tonights game, fairly decent insight so far.

[Ironside]

No need to apologise, you put up what seemed a decent logical bet, ground issues aside.

+1 the idea of fred is value and i think the bet was value despite the return

[Doobs]

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

That's a lot simpler than I expected.

This isn't a free bet per se, though. Or is it?

Yeah it still holds.

Let's say you find a 1/2 shot in play and have a 'risk free' ton at it.... 2/3 of the time you win £50, the other 1/3 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £33.33

If you punt a 9/1 shot in play with a 'risk free' ton.... 1/10 of the time you win £900, the other 9/10 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £90

Same difference

Morning.  Not sure of Fred can get on with B365?

Re-re-re-bumped.

FWIW Bet365 are top priced the draw, which I think should be bet one.  They aren't great on the first goalscorer markets, they are biggest on Torres and Hazard, but a couple of points below Betfair on both.  Going out now.

Team maths are going to be on exactly 11 corners in play for the comedy sweat.

[tikay]

Thanks, doobs. I would like you to show me the method on that, at your leisure of course.


Sandy/anyone, where is the tipster filter on the spreadsheet?

** THE WHOLE ISSUE CENTRES AROUND STAKES BEING NON-RETURNABLE ON FREE BETS **

Imagine you have a £100 free bet.

For the sake of argument imagine the odds are 'true'.....

£100 @ 1/2 will net you £50 66.67% of the time, nothing 33.33% of the time, for an implied value of £33.33.

£100 @ 9/1 will net you £900 10% of the time, nothing 90% of the time, for an implied value of £90.



It's convoluted by the fact that (a) things are generally priced closer to the 'true' price at the shorter end of the market and (b) with longer priced selections it can take you longer to see a return and you feel like you're just p1ssing them up the wall......but in essence you want to look for something at a decent price that is close to the 'true price' - the best (easily accessible and comprehensible) guide is a liquid exchange market. Decent racing is good (especially when you add in BOG) and correct score markets can work well too amongst others.

That's a lot simpler than I expected.

This isn't a free bet per se, though. Or is it?

Yeah it still holds.

Let's say you find a 1/2 shot in play and have a 'risk free' ton at it.... 2/3 of the time you win £50, the other 1/3 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £33.33

If you punt a 9/1 shot in play with a 'risk free' ton.... 1/10 of the time you win £900, the other 9/10 you break even --> Overall positive expectation of £90

Same difference

Morning.  Not sure of Fred can get on with B365?

Re-re-re-bumped.

FWIW Bet365 are top priced the draw, which I think should be bet one.  They aren't great on the first goalscorer markets, they are biggest on Torres and Hazard, but a couple of points below Betfair on both.  Going out now.

Team maths are going to be on exactly 11 corners in play for the comedy sweat.

We have a bet.

Bet365 permitted me the full £50, so we have.....

£50 @ 12/5, Bet365, Man U v Chelsea - Draw.

This allows me a further £50 Bet "In-Play".

The "In-Play" bet still to be decided, though I'm not averse to Exactly 11 Draws if need be.

ON

Draw @ 12/5
£50.00  Single

26/08/2013 17:44:20

50.00

 

[TightEnd]

I quite like one team to be winning half time, the other full time for the free bet

25-1 or 28-1 depending on your preference.... (mine would be chelsea to go behind and turn it round)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-utd-v-chelsea/half-time-full-time

[Tal]

I'm properly done now.



Look at the monkey!

[Tal]

Someone offer me a price on a tabloid headline for an article tomorrow on a British player winning his first round game of

Good Evans.

Won't beat Do Ya Think I'm Gretzky?, tho.

[Doobs]

I quite like one team to be winning half time, the other full time for the free bet

25-1 or 28-1 depending on your preference.... (mine would be chelsea to go behind and turn it round)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-utd-v-chelsea/half-time-full-time

This looks good too.  The 28/1 isn't much below Betfair, so long run we are probably only losing 10%.  I am assuming it is one of their in play markets.  I am pretty sure the corners one is, as I think I did it before a few months ago.

[BigAdz]

I like Tightys bet, but must admit other way round, only because Im sure I read a stat about how often Manure come back to win from behind.

Out and about so cant back it up with stats tho. GL

[horseplayer]

ladbrokes online lock in price

man utd half time full time 7/2

best price by a little way

just if anybody was backing it anyway

only for next 5 minutes or so

[TheDazzler]

You lads are such nits.
They are best priced Ashley 'never score' Cole FGS @ 66/1.
Get in! Oi, oi, oi!