Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

E V A T20

The two T20 matches are a day-nighter at Southampton on Thursday and a day game at Durham on Saturday.

I think there is a mis-price, Top Australain bowler

Australia have a stand out T20 performer with the ball in all rounder James Faulkner, priced at nearly 4-1 and fourth favourite behind new ball bowlers less skilled than he is at white ball cricket.

What put me onto this was the final day of the Oval Test. England were chasing late on, and looking like getting up. Faulkner, a renowned One day death bowler, switched to left arm round, started bowling in one day mode - yorkers, slower balls, and really tied England up, taking a couple of wickets. I resolved to check the T20 markets when they went up

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-australia/t20-series/england-australia-t20s/top-australia-bowler

The reason he is fourth favourite is he has only played 3 International T20 games, taking 7 wickets. However he does not lack for experience.
He’s played 50 matches in T20 lifetime in Australian domestic cricket and The IPL and has taken 66 wickets, at under 20 a piece with three four/five wicket hauls. From watching the Big bash and IPL, I know he gets wickets in bunches, a bi-product of bowling at the death really

http://www.espncricinfo.com/the-ashes-2013/content/player/270484.html

He’s certainly a value price, I would think will play both games as he is a genuine all rounder and balances the side

Who is he up against?

McKay - new ball swing bowler. Very little success in T20 Internationals, 2 wickets in 5 games.
M Johnson - he bowls to the left, he bowls to the right. Plenty of experience but a bit inconsistent to want to be backing as Joint fav.
Starc -  a threat for sure, but will he play both games?
Spinners Steve Smith and Fawad Ahmad. Think both games should be on fresh pitches, which mitigates against the right conditions for them


So

£20 James Faulkner Top Australian Bowler in the two match T20 series 15/4 Bet365, if you can get on

Small beer, as its beer cricket with the usual randomising factors anyone betting T20 has to be aware of.

Sorry Rich, bit busy yesterday, missed this.

The price is now 15/4, but that still seems reasonable.

We ARE on with Bet365, for a sum between Zero & £20, but before I detail the bet, would anyone like to test Camel's theory, & guess how much they were prepared to allow me, in total, if I pressed "MAX BET"?

Shilling says nobody gets it right.

Half a crown Camel guesses wrong.


ON


JP Faulkner (Australia) 

England vs Australia (Twenty20 Series)
Top Team Bowler
 
31/08/2013
 
15/4
 
To Run

??

Bumped for Lucky Guess Camel

They've changed the price, so I'm going to have to get my calculator out!

I'm going to go with a not very confident £2.67.

Might have moved the limits up on the day of the game too.

Oooohhhh.

£5.33 actually. Which is EXACTLY double the guess you made (allowing for rounding), so presumably you had the MAX correct, but applied the wrong % adjuster?

I'm amazed how you do that.

And what would Dubai's MAX be? £53,000?

Hope he has not punted £53,000 on dodgy boundary info from Tighty.

[The Camel]

E V A T20

The two T20 matches are a day-nighter at Southampton on Thursday and a day game at Durham on Saturday.

I think there is a mis-price, Top Australain bowler

Australia have a stand out T20 performer with the ball in all rounder James Faulkner, priced at nearly 4-1 and fourth favourite behind new ball bowlers less skilled than he is at white ball cricket.

What put me onto this was the final day of the Oval Test. England were chasing late on, and looking like getting up. Faulkner, a renowned One day death bowler, switched to left arm round, started bowling in one day mode - yorkers, slower balls, and really tied England up, taking a couple of wickets. I resolved to check the T20 markets when they went up

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-australia/t20-series/england-australia-t20s/top-australia-bowler

The reason he is fourth favourite is he has only played 3 International T20 games, taking 7 wickets. However he does not lack for experience.
He’s played 50 matches in T20 lifetime in Australian domestic cricket and The IPL and has taken 66 wickets, at under 20 a piece with three four/five wicket hauls. From watching the Big bash and IPL, I know he gets wickets in bunches, a bi-product of bowling at the death really

http://www.espncricinfo.com/the-ashes-2013/content/player/270484.html

He’s certainly a value price, I would think will play both games as he is a genuine all rounder and balances the side

Who is he up against?

McKay - new ball swing bowler. Very little success in T20 Internationals, 2 wickets in 5 games.
M Johnson - he bowls to the left, he bowls to the right. Plenty of experience but a bit inconsistent to want to be backing as Joint fav.
Starc -  a threat for sure, but will he play both games?
Spinners Steve Smith and Fawad Ahmad. Think both games should be on fresh pitches, which mitigates against the right conditions for them


So

£20 James Faulkner Top Australian Bowler in the two match T20 series 15/4 Bet365, if you can get on

Small beer, as its beer cricket with the usual randomising factors anyone betting T20 has to be aware of.

Sorry Rich, bit busy yesterday, missed this.

The price is now 15/4, but that still seems reasonable.

We ARE on with Bet365, for a sum between Zero & £20, but before I detail the bet, would anyone like to test Camel's theory, & guess how much they were prepared to allow me, in total, if I pressed "MAX BET"?

Shilling says nobody gets it right.

Half a crown Camel guesses wrong.


ON


JP Faulkner (Australia) 

England vs Australia (Twenty20 Series)
Top Team Bowler
 
31/08/2013
 
15/4
 
To Run

??

Bumped for Lucky Guess Camel

They've changed the price, so I'm going to have to get my calculator out!

I'm going to go with a not very confident £2.67.

Might have moved the limits up on the day of the game too.

Oooohhhh.

£5.33 actually. Which is EXACTLY double the guess you made (allowing for rounding), so presumably you had the MAX correct, but applied the wrong % adjuster?

I'm amazed how you do that.

And what would Dubai's MAX be? £53,000?

Hope he has not punted £53,000 on dodgy boundary info from Tighty.

Ahh no, I was looking at the first match, not the series.

Different limits.

[Eso Kral]

ANOTHER LEAGUE 1 RELEGATION RECC FROM ESOWALSALL

After the Walsall debacle last year it has taken a great deal of courage to put a recc up but I think we will get a good run on this one although we would have got a better price a couple of weeks ago IMHO I believe this still reps some value.

I am reccomending TRANMERE to be relegated from League 1 at 3/1 Coral

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

At the start of 2013 Tranmere were top of the league or thereabouts and then proceeded to have the run of form that we wanted Walsall to have losing 12 out of 17 and failing to score in their last 6 games of the season.

I waited to see what kind of start they had to the season and so far their league results have been LDLL with a 3-1 drubbing by the Saddlers so that in itself means they must be Tez.

Coventry got docked points at the start of the season but have already eaten into that deficit and the main contenders for the the four spots will be Stevenage, Shrewsbury, Carlisle so believe that at 3/1 we still have a "soupcon" of value ( they were priced between 3/1 WH and 9/2 one place Coral's at the start of the season).

I would obviously recc a max bet but for fear of rebuffal  will recc £50 Tranmere to be relegated at 3/1 Coral, I appreciate we will need Camel's mate who supports Tranmere to give us the nod first like last year on Walsall but hopefully this will restore my thread reputation... (in before obv)

[tikay]

Lol @ Camel trying to wriggle off the hook!

[horseplayer]

top price 28-1 to get promoted tikay....

[tikay]

ANOTHER LEAGUE 1 RELEGATION RECC FROM ESOWALSALL

After the Walsall debacle last year it has taken a great deal of courage to put a recc up but I think we will get a good run on this one although we would have got a better price a couple of weeks ago IMHO I believe this still reps some value.

I am reccomending TRANMERE to be relegated from League 1 at 3/1 Coral

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

At the start of 2013 Tranmere were top of the league or thereabouts and then proceeded to have the run of form that we wanted Walsall to have losing 12 out of 17 and failing to score in their last 6 games of the season.

I waited to see what kind of start they had to the season and so far their league results have been LDLL with a 3-1 drubbing by the Saddlers so that in itself means they must be Tez.

Coventry got docked points at the start of the season but have already eaten into that deficit and the main contenders for the the four spots will be Stevenage, Shrewsbury, Carlisle so believe that at 3/1 we still have a "soupcon" of value ( they were priced between 3/1 WH and 9/2 one place Coral's at the start of the season).

I would obviously recc a max bet but for fear of rebuffal  will recc £50 Tranmere to be relegated at 3/1 Coral, I appreciate we will need Camel's mate who supports Tranmere to give us the nod first like last year on Walsall but hopefully this will restore my thread reputation... (in before obv)

[tikay]

top price 28-1 to get promoted tikay....

Corals price for Tranmere to be relegated has drifted in the last 5 minutes, 16/1 now.

Wonder why?

[outragous76]

what have corals priced Tranmere at for mid table mediocrity? Maybe a bad start followed by a mid season rush then a poor finish? back that!

[tikay]

what have corals priced Tranmere at for mid table mediocrity? Maybe a bad start followed by a mid season rush then a poor finish? back that!

1/7.

[tikay]

There is a good thing on Saturday, reckon we should lump on Tranmere?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/oldham-v-tranmere/winner

[horseplayer]

to be serious i think they might struggle to

not sure there is much juice in 3-1 though

[Tal]

EsoTightyKral strikes again.

In truth, I hope BOTH bets lose. My word, we can abuse you mercilessly then.

Tomorrow's Report should be a good read, too.

How about Wayne Mardle to win the world darts championship?

No?

[tikay]

to be serious i think they might struggle to

not sure there is much juice in 3-1 though

He might have double-crossed us, & got Dubai to sort out the bet for him?

[TightEnd]

It is a big day for our other Napoli bet, the 66-1 we have on them to storm to the Champions League as the Footballing world falls at the feet of Rafa once more and proclaims his genius

At 4.45pm its "which balls are hot?" time again with the Champions League draw

The Pots are as follows

Pot 1: Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal, FC Porto, Benfica

Pot 2: Atletico Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk, AC Milan, Schalke, Marseille, CSKA Moscow, Paris St-Germain, Juventus

Pot 3: Zenit St Petersburg, Manchester City, Ajax Amsterdam, Borussia Dortmund, FC Basel, Olympiakos, Galatasaray, Bayer Leverkusen

Pot 4: FC Copenhagen, Napoli, Anderlecht, Celtic, Steaua Bucharest, Viktoria Plzen, Real Sociedad, Austria Vienna

One from each pot per group and top two in each group through to the last 16

Napoli only have recent form in Europe so the coefficient puts them in the also rans pot


A dream draw would give them

- Benfica or Porto
- CSKA
- Basle or Olympiakos


A group of death would give them

- Bayern, Barca, Real
- PSG
- Dortmund or Man City

Currently, Napoli can still be had at 50-1 in a spot or two

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner  

[The Camel]

Bit of a farce that Arsenal had to pre qualify yet are still in the elite pot.

Should be top 2 from England and Spain plus league winners from Portugal, Germany, France and Italy.

IMO