Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Been looking at this LeSean McCoy bet and I think I possibly slightly overestimated DeSean Jackson.  Still think it is roughly neutral EV at 8-1 maybe slightly -EV but the upside is that I think I underestimated McCoy.  This is my working/thinking:

Philly figure to score the first TD about 55% of the time.  In their first two games since Chip Kelly has took over they have run the ball on about 55% of plays (I think this is the key mistake the odds compilers have made as under Andy Reid it was about 45%).  So their first TD being a running TD figures to be roughly 0.55*0.55 or about 30% of the time the first TD is a Philly rushing TD.  They only really have 3 options.  Vick, Bryce Brown and LeSean McCoy.  So far this year of 68 running plays called by Kelly 42 have gone to McCoy so we can assume he will get about 60% of running plays so of the 30% of the time they score a rushing TD then McCoy scores it 60% of the time giving us a probability he scores first of 18% or a "correct line" of 9/2.  What also hasn't been taken into consideration is that McCoy has caught 6 receptions out of 62 pass attempts from Vick this year so they are using him as a receiver too.  I am not sure what this adds but I would say there is probably a 1 or 2% chance he catches a TD as a receiver.  In short I think 13/2 is a max bet.  Even if some of my thinking is off (possibly less than 55% of their TD's are rushing for example) I don't see anyway in which he is a 13/2 shot.  Great spot by Kush this one.

[bobby1]

A couple of things there tho Red is the nearer the goal line that Philly get the more likely Vick is going to get a rushing TD attempt, he has scored a TD in the first two games in a short yardage situation. The other thing is Kansas rush D has been very good so far this season so as good as the Philly O has looked this will be the tougher test for them.

Doesn't mean McCoy won't score the first TD but they probably impact those figures you have. Don't you think the  % of rushing plays that McCoy and Vick have had inside the 20/10/5/3 would be a better number? He could easily score thru the air  tho inside the 20/10/5 too.

[Longy]

On the plus those run/pass stats are slightly skewed towards Philly passing chasing the game against San Diego last week. Kelly is a run first coach, especially in the early part of games.

[redarmi]

A couple of things there tho Red is the nearer the goal line that Philly get the more likely Vick is going to get a rushing TD attempt, he has scored a TD in the first two games in a short yardage situation. The other thing is Kansas rush D has been very good so far this season so as good as the Philly O has looked this will be the tougher test for them.

Doesn't mean McCoy won't score the first TD but they probably impact those figures you have. Don't you think the  % of rushing plays that McCoy and Vick have had inside the 20/10/5/3 would be a better number? He could easily score thru the air  tho inside the 20/10/5 too.

Yeah I looked at another couple of stats but it is hard to get a good idea and last years stats are basically useless.  I think it is one of those spots where the bet could be incredible value or just value but it is never -ev.  I love the fact he could be a receiver too in short yardage plays.  Probably like you when I see these prices I also look to see which firms I respect are shortest and 365 are 9/2 here and fairly clued up.  Also sporting index who have a very capable compiler have him with highest td mins.  

[Tal]

Arsenal were winning to til and they conceded a dodgy penno in the 92nd minute ffs? Still, suggesting a bet and redarmi backing it up is like getting an A for effort. Spurs would never let us down like that Tal (I feel bad for suggesting Santini is Marseille manager these days, that was completely made up, but I bet there's a Spurs link somewhere)

You've exposed my knowledge of le football français there, M. Le Gâteau...

[aaron1867]

Roachdale House 11/10 with Hills in the 1.40 at Ayr with the second place free bet offer. Looks like only one worth backing with offer.

Recc @ £25.

[Dubai]

Re- owning a dog

Ed I would have thought worst kind of dog for a syndicate like this to own would be an exposed mid grader. Far better off taking a punt on something that could be anything and trying to land a gamble of some sort. Exposed graders are obv fine for people that want to attend the track regularly and watch the dog race but for a gambling syndicate would be my last choice of dog. If get enough people can club together and actually get something that has a chance to be decentish, on sky etc

[edgascoigne]

Re- owning a dog

Ed I would have thought worst kind of dog for a syndicate like this to own would be an exposed mid grader. Far better off taking a punt on something that could be anything and trying to land a gamble of some sort. Exposed graders are obv fine for people that want to attend the track regularly and watch the dog race but for a gambling syndicate would be my last choice of dog. If get enough people can club together and actually get something that has a chance to be decentish, on sky etc

Yep, he's miles away from being a good choice for punting on. Like, a million miles away.

Was more just if Fred wanted a regular bit of interest/feature or whatever and obv no initial cost means it needn't bother with having a whip round. Monthly costs tend to be pretty insignificant and prob wouldn't even dent Fred's monthly numbers.

Realise it sounds like a sales pitch on my part (it really isn't!) but it was more just that me and my mate had been talking about our dog owning options yesterday and then saw mention on here.

[Dubai]

Yeah I wasn't digging you out at all. Pretty big numbers on here so any sort of whipround starts adding up pretty quick, and imagine how funny it will be with 50+people trying to get on. Obviously the smart thing to do instead of naming the syndicate something gambling related would be to put the owner down in the name of an elderly woman

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £699.31

Outstanding Bets £2916.60

Free bets to use: ONE William Hill by 20th Sept

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29

A loss of £110 yesterday with five losing bets. This was a touch unfortunate though, as a winning day was on the cards with Arsenal winning 2-0 in injury time at Marseille, and a £100 profit about to be booked when Ayew scored in the 92nd minute to turn it all around

Elsewhere losses on Brighton (on the right lines, they drew at QPR), Wentworth (backed the wrong one) and Dick Van Dyke in the San Siro completed the day

In other football, our 66/1 bet on Napoli for the Champions League got of to a flyer in their very tough group with a 2-1 win over Dortmund. According to oddschecker, 98% of bets in the both teams to score market were on Yes at 8/13!

Reading beat Leeds 1-0 with Le Fondre scoring in injury time, so that was a boost to the Reading Championship bet

by the by a Messi hat trick after Ronaldo's the night before mean both are now 7/4 joint for the Champions League top scorer. Each way opportunities long gone!

Away from football, in cricket Rogers only scored 8 in a low scoring game at Headingley and Katich is not playing for Lancashire. Last rites on both bets!

In baseball the Tampa Bay Rays won a wild one against the Rangers. 2-0 down they recovered to take the game into extra innings then won in the 12th to keep hold of the top wild card spot

The Orioles beat boston, the Indians beat the Royals and so the daily update on the wild card positions is, with 10 mgames or so to go

Tampa Bay Rays    83    68    
Texas Rangers            82    69    
------------------------------------
Cleveland Indians    82    70    
Baltimore Orioles    81    70    
New York Yankees    80    72    
Kansas City Royals    80    72

 

[edgascoigne]

Yeah I wasn't digging you out at all. Pretty big numbers on here so any sort of whipround starts adding up pretty quick, and imagine how funny it will be with 50+people trying to get on. Obviously the smart thing to do instead of naming the syndicate something gambling related would be to put the owner down in the name of an elderly woman

No worries.

Surely the registered owner would have to be Dorothy Paget?!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorothy_Paget

[TightEnd]

Ayew sinks a bet

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Ramsey scores another

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That will be another hat-trick then

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The Rays Desmond Jennings hits an RBI Single in the 12th to bring the win home



Napoli beat 10 man Dortmund

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Please Santa tikay, can we have a dog?

[sovietsong]

Hello shrewdies, a guy at work is a man utd fan & he's offered me a handicap match bet vs Liverpool. How many points would you need to make Liverpool a bet at evens?

[Dubai]

8 or so

[Dubai]

Ask for 10 and then you probably got a good bet.